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Economy

2:00PM Water Cooler 6/7/2024 | naked capitalism

MONews
MONews
40 Min Read

By Lambert Strether of Corrente.

Bird Song of the Day

Killdeer, Marmon fields, Williams, North Dakota, United States.

* * *

In Case You Might Miss…

(1) Trump, Trump, Trump…..

(2) A lot of new Covid numbers. I admit that some of my notes are a little irritated.

(3) Taylor Swift, superspreader.

(4) Vivian Maier: first exhibition

(5) Steroids: is everybody really taking them?

* * *

Politics

“So many of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in fact a rational management of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

* * *

2024

Less than a half a year to go!

RCP Poll Averages, May 24:

No discernible effect from Trump’s conviction yet (though Democrats have only just begun to exploit it). Swing States (more here) still Brownian-motioning around. Of course, it goes without saying that these are all state polls, therefore bad, and most of the results are within the margin of error. If will be interesting to see whether the verdict in Judge Merchan’s court affects the polling, and if so, how.

* * *

Trump (R) (People vs. Trump): “Vermont GOP rules bar it from promoting any candidate who is a ‘convicted felon’” [NBC]. So change the party rules. But more seriously–

Trump (R) (People vs. Trump): “Plot twist: WA has a law against felons running for office” [Seattle Times]. “‘I have clients lined up who are going to be all over pursuing a ballot challenge in this case,’ says David Vogel, a Seattle attorney and former deputy prosecutor for King County who was briefly involved in an earlier ballot challenge against Trump before the presidential primary.” • It would be interesting to know if there other states with such laws. Readers? NOTE: Trump is now subject to the criminal justice system in the State of New York. It will be interesting to see how that plays out.

* * *

Trump (R): “Behind the Curtain: MAGA’s jail plan” [Axios]. “Another Trump insider pointed to a federal civil rights statute, ‘Conspiracy Against Rights’” • 18 U.S. Code § 241 – Conspiracy against rights”

If two or more persons conspire to injure, oppress, threaten, or intimidate any person in any State, Territory, Commonwealth, Possession, or District in the free exercise or enjoyment of any right or privilege secured to him by the Constitution or laws of the United States, or because of his having so exercised the same; or

If two or more persons go in disguise on the highway, or on the premises of another, with intent to prevent or hinder his free exercise or enjoyment of any right or privilege so secured—

They shall be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than ten years, or both;

(I assume the “highway part” is for night riders in the Civil Rights era.) The Sixth Amendment in Bragg’s case, I would say (since the architecture of Paul, Weis Bragg’s case didn’t give the Defendant time to prepare a proper defense; though I grant the Trump team isn’t making that argument, and since IANAL, perhaps I’ve gotten that wrong).

Trump (R): “Multiple Trump Witnesses Have Received Significant Financial Benefits From His Businesses, Campaign” [ProPublica]. Importantly: “Trump campaign head Susie Wiles, a Florida political consultant, was present when Trump allegedly went beyond improperly holding onto classified documents and showed them to people lacking proper security clearances. When Trump was indicted on June 8, 2023, over his handling of the documents, the indictment described Wiles as a ‘PAC representative.’ It described Trump allegedly showing her a classified map related to a military operation, acknowledging “that he should not be showing it” and warning her to “not get too close.” That June, Right Coast Strategies, the political consulting firm Wiles founded, received its highest-ever monthly payment from the Trump campaign: $75,000, an amount the firm has equaled only once since. Wiles had been a grand jury witness before the indictment. News reports indicated Wiles had told others that she continued to be loyal to Trump and only testified because she was forced to. (And, according to Wiles, Trump was told she was a witness sometime before the indictment’s June release.) The Trump campaign official told ProPublica that the spike in payments was largely because Wiles was billing for previous months. She also got a 20% raise that May, from $25,000 to $30,000 per month. ‘She went back and redid her contract,’ the official said, adding that her role as a witness was not a factor in that raise. A few months later, the Wiles family got more good news. Wiles’ daughter Caroline, who had done some work for Trump’s first campaign and in the White House, where she reportedly left one job because she didn’t pass a background check, was hired by his campaign. Her salary: $222,000, making her currently the fourth-highest-paid staffer. (The Trump campaign official said her salary included a monthly housing stipend.)” Then again: “‘It feels very shady, especially as you detect a pattern. … I would worry about it having a corrupt influence,’ Barbara McQuade, a former U.S. attorney for the Eastern District of Michigan, said after hearing from ProPublica about benefits provided to potential Trump witnesses. But McQuade said these cases are difficult to prove, even if the intent were actually to influence testimony, because savvy defendants don’t explicitly attach strings to the benefits and would more likely be ‘all wink and a nod, ‘You’re a great, loyal employee, here’s a raise.’” • And in fact, if you look at the numbers, Wiles is doing a great job.

Trump (R): “Wisconsin attorney general files felony charges against attorneys, aide who worked for Trump in 2020” [Associated Press]. “Felony forgery charges were filed in Wisconsin* on Tuesday against two attorneys and an aide who helped submit paperwork falsely saying that former President Donald Trump had won the battleground state in 2020. The state charges are the first to come in Wisconsin and follow separate charges brought in Arizona*, Michigan*, Nevada* and Georgia related to the fake electors scheme. The Wisconsin charges were brought against Trump’s attorney in the state, Jim Troupis, 62, attorney Kenneth Chesebro, 62, who was advising the campaign and Mike Roman, 51, who was Trump’s director of Election Day operations. Roman allegedly delivered Wisconsin’s fake elector paperwork to a Pennsylvania congressman’s staffer in order to get them to then-Vice President Mike Pence on Jan. 6, 2021. All three are due in Dane County Circuit Court on Sept. 19, according to court records. They each face one felony count punishable by up to six years in prison and fines of up to $10,000.” • NOTE * Swing states. Would be interesting to see the karmic hammer strike the Trump campaign in 2024 for the “contingent electors” scheme in 2020 (and even Fani Willis butchered the Georgia case, similar cases are proceeding, quietly, elsewhere.

* * *

Trump (R): “Trump’s doc requests reveal VP short list” [Axios]. “Former President Trump has requested financial and other documents from eight potential VP picks as he formalizes his vetting, an official tells Axios. Some candidates got more extensive paperwork requests than others — a possible clue to how hotly they’re being considered. The contenders, in no particular order: Sen. J.D. Vance (Ohio); North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum; Sen. Marco Rubio (Fla.); Sen. Tim Scott (S.C.); Ben Carson, former HUD Secretary; Rep. Elise Stefanik (N.Y.); Rep. Byron Donalds (Fla.); and Sen. Tom Cotton (Ark.). We’re told the list, reported earlier by Politico and others, is very much subject to change.” • Time Scott would make some heads explode. Stefanik, too, for that matter.

* * *

Trump (R): “Why Trump’s Second Victory Would Be Worse” [Robert Borosage, The Nation]. Here, for a change, is a Democrat yarn diagram (better than the usual, because the relationships are typed; far worse, since the relationships are often free-floating, not connecting any of the players):

One such relationship, from Stephen Miller to… nothing, is “Insurrection Act used to pursue political enemies” (whoever would have come up with such an idea). In any case, what that does show is that Project 2025 is “existential” for Democrats, personally. Borosage writes: “Of course, there will be resistance [whatever did happen to Neera]—in Congress, the bureaucracy, and the press.” • Well, given that election 2024 is indeed existential for our democracy Democrats — and it’s not just this diagram that’s saying that — it follows that Trump must be prevented from taking office “by any means necessary,” as Malcolm X said, ironically enough. So it’s odd that Borosage, now that events in Paul, Weis Judge Merchan’s court seem to have been the high tide of lawfare, doesn’t mention, besides “Congress, the bureaucracy, and the press,” the spooks. Or not so odd. Everybody knows it (“six ways from Sunday“), so why not say it? NOTE I should take a look at what Project 2025 has to say about the spooks. Perhaps thoughtful people have anticipated the relevant scenarios.

* * *

Realignment and Legitimacy

That DEI thing is working out great:


* * *

“Conservative family who relocated from California to Idaho to escape liberal politics reveal why they’ve now moved back” [Daily Mail]. “‘We decided after 3 years in Idaho, we are going back home.’ ‘We wanted to move to a Conservative state, but we realized what it would mean to fit in,’ [the TikTok] continued. ‘It would mean we would need to be judgmental. We would need to gossip about others. Have our kids forget how to say please and thank you. Talk bad about new people moving here for a better life. ‘We left California because of politics[,] but forgot there are other kinds of politics to consider…’” • Hmmm…..

“Florida is so last year — here is the new affordable hotspot people are moving to in 2024” [New York Post]. “In 2023, Florida practically owned the list of most moved-to cities, with six in the Top 20 and five in the Top 10. This year, South Florida is the third most fled, right behind much-maligned Los Angeles and the San Francisco Bay Area, [Zillow’s] numbers showed.” • Housing, insurance costs, cost of living. Pretty mundane! Anyhow, now it’s the Carolinas and Nashville.

Syndemics

“I am in earnest — I will not equivocate — I will not excuse — I will not retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

* * *

Covid Resources, United States (National): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; includes many counties; Wastewater Scan, includes drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, but national data). “Infection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts” (especially on hospitalization by city).

Lambert here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To update any entry, do feel free to contact me at the address given with the plants. Please put “COVID” in the subject line. Thank you!

Resources, United States (Local): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reports); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Resources, Canada (National): Wastewater (Government of Canada).

Resources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tips to helpful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, square coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).

Stay safe out there!

* * *

Look for the Helpers

Please consider taking the time to sign this petition to the the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services:

Transmission: H5N1

Euphonious:

I can only hope that this time Leonardi is wrong.

A long, informative thread from Fiegl-Ding on the H5N2 case in Mexico:

Vaccines

I don’t know if, at this point, we can ever have a rational discussion of vaccines, but if we manage to achieve this, the historical record on morbidity should be taken into account:

Censorship and Propaganda

Cases? What cases?

(I discuss the how case data and wastewater data diverged, after tracking in unison, here in April 2023.) AFAIK, so-called public health always focused on reducing transmission, never on hospitalization and deaths, which is what CDC focused on (although now even that data is going dark). Of course, even “mild” infection can cause vascular and neurological damage, as well as Long Covid, as readers know, but which cannot be too often stated.

A good list of blame-worthy thought leaders:

But even more to blame are the people who funded the thought leaders, betrayers who should be sunk in the ice of the Ninth Circle of Hell. (Also, has anyone checked in on the UK? Seems to be rather a lot of illness about.)

Celebrity Watch

“Taylor Swift spreads Covid: thousand of fans fall ill after Madrid and Paris concerts” [El Nacional]. “Taylor Swift certainly does not leave her fans indifferent. A week after the US singer performed in Madrid as part of her Eras Tour, the 130,000 people who saw her at the two concerts held in the Spanish capital still remember an unforgettable night. What many don’t know is that they left the Santiago Bernabéu Stadium with more than just souvenirs and outrageously-priced merchandising. Many also picked up an unexpected souvenir: a dose of Covid-19. Over the past few days, thousands of fans have commented on social media that they fell ill after attending the concerts on May 29th and 30th. A situation that is not surprising, considering the large crowd packed into the stadium, all of them singing their favourite tunes at the top of their lungs. And despite the fact that the severity of the pandemic situation is now much reduced, the virus itself persists… To give an idea, the leading Spanish fan Twitter/X account dedicated to Taylor Swift held a poll asking followers if they had come down sick after going to one of the singer’s concerts in Madrid. A full 35% of people who took part – the equivalent of 3,780 – responded positively…. On June 9th and 10th, Paris hosted two concerts by Taylor Swift – three weeks before the Madrid shows – and a similar situation was experienced there, in which thousands of French fans reported feeling unwell, with symptoms compatible with Covid.” • See here at NC on Taylor Swift, who makes every effort to protect herself and her entourage from Covid, but does nothing to protect here fans Notice the difference between indoors and outdoors:

Would it really be so difficult for squillionaire Swift to confine herself to outdoor venues? Assuming that not giving her devoted fans heart and brain damage is a priority for her?

“The latest concert must-have? Stylish earplugs” [Financial Times]. • Not, of course, N95s as branded merch, heaven forfend.

Elite Maleficence

You’d think the Republicans could blame mass infections on Biden (and they’d be right):

“Collective issue”? Is Cuomo some kinda Communist?

No but seriously, Cuomo has commendably been plugging away at Long Covid coverage.

WHO recommends handwashing, but not PPE or masks, against bird flu:

European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control: “The virus spreads directly from bird to bird or indirectly, through faecal contamination of material, feathers or feed.” CDC: “However, human infections with avian influenza A viruses can happen when enough virus gets into a person’s eyes, nose or mouth, or is inhaled. This can happen when virus is in the air (in or possibly dust) and a person breathes it in, or when a person touches something that has virus on it and then touches their mouth, eyes or nose.” • We learn nothing.

#DavosSafe:

They know. They just don’t want you to know.

The Bullingdon Club at play:

* * *

Lambert here: Patient readers, I’m going to have to rethink this beautifully formatted table. Biobot data is gone, CDC variant data functions, ER visits are dead, CDC stopped mandatory hospital data collection, New York Times death data has stopped. (Note that the two metrics the hospital-centric CDC cared about, hospitalization and deaths, have both gone dark). Ideally I would replace hospitalization and death data, but I’m not sure how. I might also expand the wastewater section to include (yech) Verily data, H5N1 if I can get it. Suggestions and sources welcome. UPDATE I replaced the Times death data with CDC data. Amusingly, the URL doesn’t include parameters to construct the tables; one must reconstruct then manually each time. Caltrops abound.

TABLE 1: Daily Covid Charts

LEGEND

1) ★ for charts new today; all others are not updated.

2) For a full-size/full-resolution image, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open image in new tab.”

NOTES

[1] (Biobot) Dead.

[2] (Biobot) Dead.

[3] (CDC Variants) FWIW, given that last week KP.2 was all over everything like kudzu, and now it’s KP.3. If the “Nowcast” can’t even forecast two weeks out, why are we doing it at all?

[4] (ER) This is the best I can do for now. At least data for the entire pandemic is presented.

[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Slight leveling out? (The New York city area has form; in 2020, as the home of two international airports (JFK and EWR) it was an important entry point for the virus into the country (and from thence up the Hudson River valley, as the rich sought to escape, and then around the country through air travel.)

[6] (Hospitalization: CDC). This is the best I can do for now. Note the assumption that Covid is seasonal is built into the presentation. At least data for the entire pandemic is presented.

[7] (Walgreens) 4.3%; big jump. (Because there is data in “current view” tab, I think white states here have experienced “no change,” as opposed to have no data.)

[8] (Cleveland) Going up.

[9] (Travelers: Positivity) Up. Those sh*theads at CDC have changed the chart so that it doesn’t even run back to 1/21/23, as it used to, but now starts 1/1/24. There’s also no way to adjust the time rasnge. CDC really doesn’t want you to be able to take a historical view of the pandemic, or compare one surge to another. In an any case, that’s why the shape of the curve has changed.

[10] (Travelers: Variants) Same deal. Those sh*theads:

[11] Deaths low, but positivity up.

[12] Deaths low, ED not up.

Stats Watch

Employment Situation: “United States Unemployment Rate” [Trading Economics]. “The unemployment rate in the United States rose to 4% in May 2024, the highest since January 2022, up from 3.9% in the previous month and surprising market expectations, which had forecasted the rate to remain unchanged…. Meanwhile, the labor force participation rate dropped to 62.5% from 62.7%, and the employment-population ratio decreased to 60.1% from 60.2%.”

* * *

CNBC: “United Airlines starts serving passengers personalized ads on seat-back screens” [CNBC]. “Now playing on United Airlines’ seat-back screens: personalized ads. The carrier on Friday said it launched a media platform to serve travelers personalized advertisements on seat-back screens and in its app, among other platforms, as it seeks to leverage customer data. Customers can opt out of seeing targeted ads through a United web page [oh, right], and United says advertisers can’t access customers’ personally identifiable information, the airline said.’ There is the potential for 3.5 hours of attention per traveler, based on average flight time,’ United said.” • It’s a gold mine, I’m tellin’ ya! (Also, “personalized” without being “personally identifiable” is a neat trick.)

* * *

Today’s Fear & Greed Index: 44 Fear (previous close: 45 Neutral) [CNN]. One week ago: 43 (Fear). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed). Last updated Jun 6 at 1:53:46 PM ET.

Photo Book

“In ‘Unseen Work,’ Vivian Maier’s Incredible Photographs Go On Display for Her First U.S. Retrospective — [Colossal]. “In 2007, Chicago resident John Maloof landed on the discovery of a lifetime at a thrift auction house on the city’s Northwest Side. A stunning archive of more than 100,000 negatives by photographer Vivian Maier (1926-2009) went under the hammer, marking a new chapter in the prolific documentarian’s story. Maier’s incredible images focus on people she passed on the street around her hometown in France, then New York and Chicago, illustrating her deep love for the medium and innate ability to capture moving portraits and candid, natural interactions. Over the decades, her dedication amounted to one of the most remarkable photographic collections of the century Maier (previously) never exhibited her work during her lifetime, and she rarely made prints from her negatives. Having worked as a nanny for many years, she faced financial instability later in life, and her photographs ended up in storage along with other belongings, which were ultimately sold off when the rent went unpaid.” • I can’t believe this is the firsr Maier exhibition:

Zeitgeist Watch

“Why Is Everyone on Steroids Now?” [GQ]. “Someone in your life is using performance-enhancing drugs. I feel comfortable making that bet because I recently discovered how many people in my life are using performance-enhancing drugs [(PEDs].” Well… “Multiple guys said they were bothered by the persistent stereotypes of PED users as meatheads, as aggro dudes prone to so-called roid rage—it just didn’t square with the people they had befriended. ‘There are doctors, engineers, government officials, nurses, software engineers, attorneys, small-business owners, accountants,’ a 32-year-old named J.R. told me. He lives in North Carolina and serves as an administrator in one of the forums. ‘There are devoted husbands and committed fathers. .’” • In other words, PMC men are on steroids (with the possible exception of nurses). There may certainly be a PED culture in the working class, but if so, this genuinely creepy article doesn’t show it.

“Study Says That People Who Like Loud Exhaust Are Psychotic” [Car and Driver]. Works for me. “A new study by Western University in Ontario says that if you’ve got a car with a modified exhaust system, odds are you’re a guy and probably also psychotic and sadistic…. The study group comprised 529 undergrad business students who were asked whether they thought loud cars are cool, whether they viewed their cars as an extension of themselves, and if they’d modify their own cars to make the exhaust louder. Further, each participant took a Short Dark Tetrad personality survey to assess predilection toward general malice and belligerence—psychopathy, narcissism, manipulativeness. Somewhat surprisingly, the straight-pipe crowd didn’t score high on narcissism, indicating that the appreciation of stridently broadcast internal combustion isn’t motivated by, ‘Hey, look at me!’ It’s more like, ‘Hey, listen to my Nissan VQ, whether you like it or not.’” That’s reassuring. More: “If you’re wondering what sort of other affinities might be predicted by high scores in sadism and psychopathy, the study says that those sorts of traits have also shown up in responses asking if the participant had intentionally started an illegal fire.” • Now do people who use cellphones like walkie-talkies.

Class Warfare

“Vinod Khosla, Marc Andreessen And The Billionaire Battle For AI’s Future” [Forbes]. “Andreessen and his allies envision a best-case-scenario future in which AI prevents disease and early mortality, and all artists and businesspeople work with an AI assistant to enhance their jobs. Warfare, without bloody human blunders, will have fewer human casualties. AI-augmented art and films will appear everywhere. In a manifesto detailing his position last year, Andreessen, who declined an interview request for this story, dreams of open-source paradise, with no regulatory barriers to slow AI’s development or red-tape moats that protect big companies at the expense of startups. All three billionaire investors appear on this year’s Midas List of the world’s top tech investors for investments that reach beyond AI—with Hoffman at No. 8, Khosla at No. 9 and Andreessen at No. 36—but it’s in the emerging category where their influence is most acutely felt. These prominent leaders of the last tech revolution are now pushing their views on the key topics of the next.” • AI = BS. None of this will ever happen. AI will not “augment” humans; that’s not how capital accumulation works. AI art will be horrid and no human artists will have any work, because AI art is “good enough,” and all those who could show what the difference is will be too impoverished to create, let alone educate. It’s really telling that the first big AI “innovation” to hit the labor market was eliminating call center employees (which, artists, is what you are to capital as well).

News of the Wired

“We Are Made of Waves” [Nautilus]. “As Strassler writes, we are all ‘wavicle-creatures,’ and ‘the universe sings everywhere, in every thing.’” • Maybe. I looked hard for something to excerpt. This was it!

* * *

Contact information for plants: Readers, feel free to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) find out how to send me a check if you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to find out how to send me images of plants. Vegetables are fine! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary plants! If you want your handle to appear as a credit, please place it at the start of your mail in parentheses: (thus). Otherwise, I will anonymize by using your initials. See the previous Water Cooler (with plant) here. From Mark Kinnucan:

Mark Kinnucan writes: “A stone hoisted into the air by the roots of a fallen hemlock, Mohican State Park, Ohio.” Great metaphor….

* * *

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