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Economy

2:00PM Water Cooler 7/18/2024 | naked capitalism

MONews
MONews
33 Min Read
2:00PM Water Cooler 7/18/2024 | naked capitalism

By Lambert Strether of Corrente

Patient readers, I had to do something first, so I did the Republican National Convention. The Democrats and their Biden problem will come shortly. Please stay tuned. –lambert

Bird Song of the Day

Common Nightingale, Бишкек — Жаштар паркы/Ганди паркы [Bishkek — Youth Park/Gandhi Park]. Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan. With a rooster!

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In Case You Might Miss…

(1) A former Navy SEAL takes a view of the Trump assassination event.

(2) The Republican National Convention and J.D. Vance

(3) Unelecting Biden: irresistible (albeit private) force, immovable (albeit ill) object.

(4) Marimekko patterns online.

* * *

Politics

“So many of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in fact a rational management of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

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Trump Assassination Attempt

Interesting perspective, worth listening to in its entirety:

As far as “sacking” cities, states, the country: At least for the last, you’d need “a mass-based party of committed nationalist militants.” That would be unfortunate.

2024

Less than four months to go!

Friday’s RCP Poll Averages: CTUTP

Second post-debate polling: No massive swing to Trump that I can see. It would be hilarious if the Biden Debate debacle had exactly the same effect as Trump’s 34 bazillion felony convictions, i.e., none, both parties are so dug in. Of course, the Biden “buzz” (yesterday) is bad, and may yet have an effect. And who, may I ask, is making the buzz? Swing States (more here) still Brownian-motioning around. Of course, it goes without saying that these are all state polls, therefore bad, and most of the results are within the margin of error.

Just a reminder–

“America is About to Go Through Some Things” [Rachel Bitecofer, The Cycle]. “As a person who built their reputation on predicting the political future I hope you can appreciate the importance of my next statement: I have no idea what in the hell is about to happen!!! I can see the next 4 months with stark clarity. Like the elections preceding it, 2024 will come down to about 100,000 votes in 6 or 7 swing states. Though horserace coverage will continue to breathlessly obsess over every new poll, quality or not, the truth is this race was a toss up 4 months ago, it’s a toss up now, and it’ll be a toss up in November.” • Yep.

* * *

Unelecting Biden:

Electeds

“Pelosi told Biden: You’re dragging down Democrats” [Politico]. But in terms of action: “The speaker does not want to call on him to resign, but she will do to make sure it happens,’ this person said, referring to Biden quitting the race.” • Not even Pelosi being quoted directly. And “Everything in her power” is “A great empire will be destroyed“-level.

Party Loyalists

It’s possibly we’re in “the dogs won’t eat the dog food” mode, here. Of course, this is an anecdote:

Donors

Republican National Convention:

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* * *

Vance: Stoller live-blogged his speech:

Vance:


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“Editorial: A Teamsters pitch at the Republican National Convention suggests big trouble for Democrats” [Chicago Tribune]. “‘The biggest recipients of welfare in this country are corporations,’ said Sean O’Brien on Monday night. ‘And this is real corruption.’ You’d expect the president of the Teamsters, one of America’s most powerful labor unions, to hold such a view. But that he delivered that comment as a fiery prime-time speaker on the opening night of the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee was remarkable, to say the least. Especially since he was there at the invitation of the Republican nominee for president of the United States and this marked the first time in history that a Teamsters leader spoke at the GOP convention. And that hardly was the only moment when it seemed like O’Brien’s head-turning lines on Monday night in Milwaukee would have been a much better fit for the Democratic National Convention in Chicago. To wit: ‘Americans vote for a union but can’t get a union contract.’ ‘Companies fire workers who try to join unions and hide behind toothless laws that are meant to protect working people but are manipulated to benefit corporations. This is economic terrorism at its best; an individual cannot withstand such an assault.’”

“A Grand Old Party for Workers?” [The American Prospect]. “As they assemble in Milwaukee, are the MAGA Republicans taking seriously their newly minted pro-worker rhetoric? The GOP platform announces itself with an almost Rooseveltian flourish, dedicating the party ‘To the Forgotten Men and Women of America.’ That’s a nice touch, but when it comes to actual worker welfare issues, the new GOP platform emphasizes, overwhelmingly, immigration restriction, often in the most racist fashion, as well as raising obstacles to trade with China. There is very little else that bears directly on worker status. The platform does call for ‘merit-based immigration’ in contrast to what the GOP labels ‘chain migration,’ allowing spouses or children of those new workers into the country. That probably opens the door to the kind of temporary employees demanded by both Silicon Valley and American agribusiness, but, please, no family members! The platform favors ending the transition to electric vehicles, an industrial policy championed by both President Biden and a newly powerful UAW, whose 2023 strike ensured that higher wages and union jobs would spread to many new battery plants and EV factories. Trump and the GOP are wagering that EVs will still fail, and in their place their platform offers a bet on crypto and artificial intelligence. One of the very few places where the platform-writers put forward a specific work-related proposal comes with a call to eliminate the tax on the tips that restaurant and hospitality workers earn, a substitute perhaps for raising the minimum wage, otherwise unmentioned in the 2024 GOP platform.” • So is Vance a… beard?

“Rappers, strippers and a felon: Is this Donald Trump’s new Republican Party?” [USA Today]. “The GOP seems to be morphing before our eyes because of a combination of events, including President Joe Biden’s incompetence, Trump’s influence on the party and the failed assassination attempt. The convention has been a cacophony of professionals, misfits and patriots − not unlike the GOP itself. We’ve heard from established leaders such as Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, who’s also a former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations…. But the real eye-catchers causing a stir are the ‘outsiders.’ People who either used to be Democrats or who embrace a message the GOP wants to send…. On Monday, rapper Amber Rose spoke to delegates inside the convention hall in Milwaukee. Her presence stirred controversy. She’s neither a politician nor a lifelong Republican. She’s a 40-year-old former model and stripper who dated Kanye West before she married and divorced rapper Wiz Khalifa. In her convention speech, Rose said she had an ‘aha’ moment when it came to racial issues and Trump. ‘Donald Trump and his supporters don’t care if you’re Black, white, gay or straight, it’s all love,’ she said. And that’s when it hit me. These are my people; this is where I belong…. I don’t see Rose’s appearance as a beacon of hope or as an object of derision. She’s clearly not a politician or thought leader, but her presence does signal something noteworthy: .”

“WWE legend Hulk Hogan to speak at RNC before Trump accepts GOP nomination” [New York Post]. “It was not immediately clear what Hogan would be speaking about. Hogan, 70, told ‘Fox & Friends’ last month he would consider entering politics now that he has retired from wrestling. ‘We need somebody in there that’s got some common sense,’ Hogan said. ‘So, if you need a president or vice president, I’ll volunteer and take this country over, and I’ll rule with an iron fist, a flat tax – nothing but common sense. I know right from wrong, brother,’ he added.” • There’s a history here:


* * *

“Tucker Carlson seems to be having the time of his life at the RNC” [WaPo]. “Carlson is having a moment at the RNC. He’s being followed by a documentary crew. He’s expected to give a prime time speech before the festivities come to an end on Thursday. And to top that off, he gets to celebrate the fact that his friend and fellow nationalistic conservative, Sen. J.D. Vance (R-Ohio), got the nod to be Trump’s running mate — an outcome Carlson had been lobbying for privately. (According to a report from the New York Times, Carlson had warned Trump that if a “neocon” — a Republican with an interventionist foreign policy — were vice president, deep state forces would be more likely to try to assassinate Trump.)”

“Inside the Strange New World of Tucker Carlson” [Wall Street Journal]. “Carlson’s new show made its debut on Twitter (before its rebranding as X) in early June 2023, and that December he launched TCN, which became profitable, he says, within weeks. Most of its revenue comes from over 200,000 paid subscribers, according to CFO Faizaan Baig. Carlson’s Putin episode last February gained 200 million impressions on X and 20 million views on YouTube. His podcast has had over 26 million downloads since its December launch and is currently no. 1 on Spotify’s news podcast chart.” And: “Carlson is trying to expand his reach outside the U.S. He says he’s negotiating an interview with Xi Jinping of China and will soon visit Mohammed bin Salman, the crown prince and de facto ruler of Saudi Arabia. He has repeatedly requested an interview with Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine but wants to conduct it in a third country because he believes (without offering any evidence) that Ukrainian intelligence is trying to kill him. The president of El Salvador, Nayib Bukele, hugely popular at home for eradicating rampant gang crime but widely criticized for alleged human-rights abuses, visited Carlson in Maine for bird hunting in November 2022.”

The Campaign Trail:

Trump (R) (Smith/Cannon): “Special counsel Jack Smith appeals dismissal of Trump classified documents case” [CNBC]. “Special counsel Jack Smith filed a notice appealing the decision earlier this week by Florida federal Judge Aileen Cannon that dismissed the criminal classified documents case against former President Donald Trump. Smith’s appeal, which was expected, will be heard in the 11th Circuit U.S. Court of Appeals in Atlanta, which reviews cases arising from Florida federal courts…. The appeal is likely to end up at the U.S. Supreme Court, regardless of how the 11th Circuit appeals court rules.”

Trump (R): Something to look forward to:


* * *

Biden (D): “Biden’s Covid diagnosis comes at the worst possible time for his campaign” [Politico]. “President Joe Biden’s Covid diagnosis on Wednesday afternoon could hardly have come at a more devastating time. Not only did it cut short a two-day campaign swing in Nevada, but it threatens to deepen Democratic anxieties over — and resistance to — his reelection campaign, which has been teetering for nearly three weeks since his abysmal performance in his first debate with former President Donald Trump. The news — first announced to a crowd of Hispanic activists awaiting his speech in Las Vegas and shortly thereafter confirmed by the White House — will surely deepen concerns about Biden’s age, health and stamina that have many Democrats calling for him to step aside as the party’s presidential nominee. Perhaps even more importantly, it could create a vacuum that privately skeptical Democrats, now feeling a heightened sense of urgency, may feel inclined to fill by amping up their pressure campaign.” • Well, I’m glad that “privately skeptical” Dems may feel “heightened sense of urgency” with democracy on the ballot etc. etc. Commentary:

And:

Biden’s spread plenty of contagion already, so why stop now?

Our Famously Free Press

August 5, 2024:

On the photo at left, see (again) here.

“Steve Bannon filmed Jeffrey Epstein for 15 hours. His ‘documentary’ has never surfaced.” [Business Insider]. “Before his 2019 death in jail, Jeffrey Epstein spent hours being interviewed on camera by Steve Bannon. A clip published by the New York Post in 2021 shows Bannon verbally sparring with Epstein… The clip supposedly promoted a documentary, “The Monsters: Epstein’s Life Among the Global Elite,” from Bannon’s production company Victory Films. Before Epstein went to jail on sex-trafficking charges in July 2019, Bannon spent months in the financier’s homes in Manhattan and Paris. He boasted that he shot 15 hours’ worth of video. Three years later, no documentary has been released. And Bannon’s close relationship with Epstein has been curiously memory-holed.” • Or not curiously. Anyhow, Bannon’s in jail, so why worry?

2016 Post Mortem

“JD Vance & Thomas Frank discuss the 2016 Presidential Race with Smerconish on CNN” [Michael Smerconish, YouTube]. • Vance and Frank on the same screen?!

Syndemics

“I am in earnest — I will not equivocate — I will not excuse — I will not retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

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Covid Resources, United States (National): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; includes many counties; Wastewater Scan, includes drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, but national data). “Infection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts” (especially on hospitalization by city).

Lambert here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To update any entry, do feel free to contact me at the address given with the plants. Please put “COVID” in the subject line. Thank you!

Resources, United States (Local): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reports); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Resources, Canada (National): Wastewater (Government of Canada).

Resources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tips to helpful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, square coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).

Stay safe out there!

* * *

Personal RIsk Assessment

The “boiling water” stage:

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TABLE 1: Daily Covid Charts

LEGEND

1) ★ for charts new today; all others are not updated.

2) For a full-size/full-resolution image, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open image in new tab.”

NOTES

[1] (CDC) This week’s wastewater map, with hot spots annotated. Worse than two weeks ago.

[2] (CDC) Last week’s wastewater map.

[3] (CDC Variants) LB.1 coming up on the outside.

[4] (ER) This is the best I can do for now. At least data for the entire pandemic is presented.

[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Now acceleration, which is compatible with a wastewater decrease, but still not a good feeling .(The New York city area has form; in 2020, as the home of two international airports (JFK and EWR) it was an important entry point for the virus into the country (and from thence up the Hudson River valley, as the rich sought to escape, and then around the country through air travel.)

[6] (Hospitalization: CDC). This is the best I can do for now. Note the assumption that Covid is seasonal is built into the presentation, which in fact shows that Covid is not seasonal. At least data for the entire pandemic is presented.

[7] (Walgreens) Still going up! (Because there is data in “current view” tab, I think white states here have experienced “no change,” as opposed to have no data.)

[8] (Cleveland) Still going up!

[9] (Travelers: Positivity) Up. Those sh*theads at CDC have changed the chart so that it doesn’t even run back to 1/21/23, as it used to, but now starts 1/1/24. There’s also no way to adjust the time rasnge. CDC really doesn’t want you to be able to take a historical view of the pandemic, or compare one surge to another. In an any case, that’s why the shape of the curve has changed.

[10] (Travelers: Variants) Same deal. Those sh*theads.

[11] Deaths low, but positivity up.

[12] Deaths low, ED up.

Stats Watch

Employment Situation: “United States Initial Jobless Claims” [Trading Economics]. “The number of people claiming unemployment benefits in the US rose by 10,000 to 243,000 on the period ending July 13th, reaching a new weekly high, surpassing market expectations of 230,000. This increase, along with other key indicators, suggests that the US labor market continued to soften during this period, bolstering expectations that the Federal Reserve may lower benchmark borrowing costs by September.”

Manufacturing: “United States Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index” [Trading Economics]. “The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index in the US soared to 13.9 in July 2024, the highest level in three months, compared to 1.3 in June and way better than forecasts of 2.9. The reading showed manufacturing activity in Philadelphia expanded overall, as general activity rose….”

* * *

Tech: AI as oracle:

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Today’s Fear & Greed Index: 51 Neutral (previous close: 53 Neutral) [CNN]. One week ago: 54 (Neutral). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed). Last updated Jul 18 at 12:49:10 PM ET.

Class Warfare

“The peak shipping season is getting underway with another threat of labor disruption at American ports” [Paul Page, Wall Street Journal]. “The union representing about 45,000 workers at ports from Maine to Texas and the seaport employers are in a standoff with no negotiations on the calendar and the current longshore contract due to expire in a little over two months. The WSJ Logistics Report’s Paul Berger writes that Harold Daggett, head of the International Longshoremen’s Association, is stepping up his rhetoric, warning that a strike “is becoming more likely.” Daggett says the union won’t extend the current labor agreement when it expires this fall and that dockworkers won’t work without a contract. Automation is at the heart of the current impasse. But the union is also looking for a hefty wage increase, one that would exceed the 32% raise over six years won by West Coast dockworkers last year.

Zeitgeist Watch

“I Gave Myself a Month to Make One New Friend. How Hard Could That Be?” [Esquire]. ” Americans have become terrible at making and keeping friends. Here’s an incomplete list of phenomena that experts in the subject have blamed for this: apartments without dining rooms, Covid-19, “technology,” babies, not enough hiking. Whatever the cause, we’re a nation afflicted. This is particularly true for men. (If you cannot name even a single close friend, you’re not the only one: 20 percent of single men are stuck in the same position, trapped in what is being dubbed a “friendship recession.”) In 2023, a surgeon general’s advisory declared loneliness and isolation an “epidemic,” and I was showing worrying symptoms. I had a spouse, a child, a dog, a career—and almost nobody else to hang out with.” • Very long but not uninteresting….

News of the Wired

“A brief interview with AWK creator Dr. Brian Kernighan” [PLDB]. “What would be your advice to young people today who want to get into the field of designing programming languages? Dr. Kernighan: Try designing and implementing small and special purpose languages. They are lots of fun, often very useful, and a great deal easier than trying to create a replacement for Rust or C++. Look for things that could be automated if you had the right kind of language to spell out the steps, then create a simple compiler and runtime. Jon Bentley wrote a couple of articles on this long ago that are still relevant.” • If you’re still reading, Bentley is terrific; search on Programming Pearls. He writes with beautiful clarity, as did so many of his generation of proigrammers, but I remember the “bumper sticker computer science” the best: “When in doubt, use brute force” is perhaps my favorite, but “Testing can show the presence of bugs, but not their

absence” is good too.

“An Online Database of Marimekko Patterns” [Kotte.org]. “Maripedia is an online database of hundreds of print patterns that Marimekko has used in their products since the 1940s. You can browse by decade, designer, or style…or you can search by image. That’s right, just upload an image of the pattern on your pillowcase or dress and it’ll tell you who designed it and when.’ • Pretty neat! Her’es a Morris Louis:

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Contact information for plants: Readers, feel free to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) find out how to send me a check if you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to find out how to send me images of plants. Vegetables are fine! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary plants! If you want your handle to appear as a credit, please place it at the start of your mail in parentheses: (thus). Otherwise, I will anonymize by using your initials. See the previous Water Cooler (with plant) here. From Into_The_Abyss:

Into_The_Abyss writes: “I believe this is a night-blooming cereus, at the Selby Gardens, Sarasota, FL. Most I’ve seen bloom at one time!”

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