2:00PM Water Cooler 7/30/2024 | naked capitalism

By Lambert Strether of Corrente

Patient readers, I feel I’ve been neglecting Covid in favor of electoral politics (“the tyranny of the urgent”). I will add more political news in short order. –lambert

Bird Song of the Day

Blue Mockingbird, Calle Lirios Bosque, Puerto Vallarta, Jalisco, Mexico. “Lifer!”

In Case You Might Miss…

(1) Democrat idipol.

(3) Covid at the Olympics.

(2) Amazon a distributor, now responsible for recalls.

Politics

“So many of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in fact a rational management of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

2024

Less than one hundred days to go!

Friday’s RCP Poll Averages:

First poll with Harris at the top of the Democrat ticket; Trump’s position deteriorates (and any advantage he gained from the assassination attempt has been wiped away. Nevertheless, he still leads, albeit within the margin of error. NOTE RCP used to have two pages of swing states; I always used the first one. Now there is only one, which I take as an indicator that Harris v. Trump polling is not all that widespread.

Vibe shift:

Unbelievable vibe shift in the US with Kamala Harris https://t.co/LAZoglUMHW pic.twitter.com/rrMisGHLbu

— Albert Pinto (@70sBachchan) July 26, 2024

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* * *

The Campaign Trail:

Kamala (D): “Identity Groups Are Mobilizing for Kamala Harris. That Shows Progress” [Time]. “This enthusiasm is significant as Harris heads into the final months of the campaign, but given that American culture discourages this kind of “identity politics,” many people will see this list of identity-specific calls and think, “If you want to support Harris, do it, but why all this separation?” Why gather in specific groups?… However, it is equally encouraging to see white women and white men organize as white women and white men. Despite all the ways American culture teaches them that whiteness hasn’t determined their life chances, and in stark contrast to the way white women, primarily, congregated in a “secret” Facebook group before the 2016 election, these Harris supporters are insisting upon publicly acknowledging the specificity of experience. Doing so doesn’t automatically erect barriers between them and people of color. Instead, it facilitates an honoring of differences that makes those differences strengths.” • Of course, plenty of “Not that way!” when identity groups do it wrong; the Azovs, for example. The pecking order as expressed in the rollout timing is interesting: First, Black Women. Second, White Women. Third, White Men. Fourth, Latino Men:

https://t.co/GRaNYudlzF

— Julie Chavez Rodriguez (@JulieR2022) July 30, 2024

On the bright said, the organizers didn’t use “Latinx.” I suppose the Asian verticals are yet come. NOTE “[As activist author Audre Lorde explained decades ago] urged Americans to become more practiced in ‘relating across our human differences as equals’ so that what distinguishes us from each other would cease to be ‘misnamed and misused in the service of separation and confusion.’” When 90% of humanity has to sell their labor power to survive, 1% buys it, and 10% helps the 1% get that done, “relating across our human differences as equals” isn’t possible; the material differences cannot be erased by wishful thinking. Ya know, it’s almost like the identity verticals were like…. were like a…. were like a bundle of sticks, only strong when bound together….

* * *

Syndemics

“I am in earnest — I will not equivocate — I will not excuse — I will not retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

Covid Resources, United States (National): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; includes many counties; Wastewater Scan, includes drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, but national data). “Infection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts” (especially on hospitalization by city).

Lambert here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To update any entry, do feel free to contact me at the address given with the plants. Please put “COVID” in the subject line. Thank you!

Resources, United States (Local): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reports); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Resources, Canada (National): Wastewater (Government of Canada).

Resources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tips to helpful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, square coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).

Stay safe out there!

Look for the Helpers

Progress can be made:

Maskstravaganza

“Personal protective effect of wearing surgical face masks in public spaces on self-reported respiratory symptoms in adults: pragmatic randomised superiority trial” [BMJ]. “The most reported adverse effects were unpleasant comments from other people.”

This is good, I hope, because I’ve thought of ACT-UP as a touchstone for what Covid Cautious might be:

2/6 pic.twitter.com/vmea64xAWC

— ACT UP NY (@actupny) July 30, 2024

Is it too much to ask that DSA straighten itself out, too? Or are they too brunch-adjacent by now?

Vaccines

“COVID-19 in Pediatric Populations” (excerpt) [Clinics in Chest Medicine]. Summary:

• SARS-CoV-2 will continue to circulate through communities with novel variants emerging over time.

• While most children experience mild illness, some can develop severe acute COVID-19 or post-COVID complications.

• Vaccination against COVID-19 is recommended for all children 6 months and older.

• If infected, efforts should be made, in accordance with local and national guidance, to avoid spreading infections to others.

Love that last bullet point (that we even have to say it). I’m not a vax maven, so I’m not aware of pediatric studies for Covid vaccines (mRNA and otherwise). Perhaps readers will chime in.

Morbidity and Mortality

“How COVID-19 has Affected Mortality in 2020 to 2023” [Actuaries Institute]. Australia. “There were 8,400 more deaths in Australia in 2023 than predicted had the pandemic not occurred – less than half of the almost 20,000 excess deaths estimated for 2022…. The steep decline in excess deaths in 2023 was primarily due to the number of people dying from COVID-19 falling to 4,600 in 2023 from 10,300 in 2022. While Australia’s excess mortality rate had dropped substantially, it remains significantly higher than the 1-2% excess observed in years of high flu deaths prior to the pandemic. When analysing the excess mortality of 40 countries from 2020 to 2023, Australia’s excess mortality over the four-year period (5%) was low by global standards (11%).” • Despite Gladys’s best efforts!

Celebrity Watch

“Covid hits British Olympic swimming star who had close contact with U.S. athlete” [NPR]. “British sports officials say one of their star swimmers, three-time Olympic gold medalist Adam Peaty, has tested positive for COVID. The announcement comes a day after Peaty competed in the 100-meter breaststroke final, mingling closely with other athletes in Paris, including American Nic Fink. ‘In the hours after the final, (Peaty’s) symptoms became worse and he was tested for COVID early on Monday morning,’ Team Great Britain said in a statement issued Monday afternoon Paris time. ‘He tested positive at that point.’ The statement confirmed Peaty was experiencing symptoms of illness on Sunday prior to competing and interacting with other athletes. ‘Adam Peaty was feeling unwell on Sunday ahead of his men’s 100 meter breaststroke final,’ the statement said. NPR has attempted to contact Team GB to ask why Peaty wasn’t tested sooner, or isolated, with no response….. . That’s a break from strict restrictions implemented at the Tokyo Games in 2021 and the Beijing Winter Games in 2022. On the medal podium Sunday night, Peaty hugged Italian gold medalist Martinenghi and Fink, who won silver in the event.” • Oh. From WaPo, a caption: “Britain’s Princess Anne, left, congratulates Adam Peaty, of Britain, after winning the silver medal in the men’s 100-meter breaststroke final at the 2024 Summer Olympics, Sunday, July 28, 2024, in Nanterre, France.” Presumably Princess Anne will get tested.

“Olympics volunteers resign over lack of Covid-19 precautions” [The Sick Times]. “Earlier this month, a group of Olympic volunteers demanded Covid-19 precautions at the 2024 Paris Olympics, stating they would resign if precautions weren’t implemented. ‘Covid-19 pandemic threat denial is not an antidote to contamination,’ the volunteers wrote in a press release. ‘If no steps are taken, we will collectively resign from our assignments, and will not show up on the Olympic and Paralympic sites we have been staffed.’ Since their statement was issued on July 15, the group has not received a response from the 2024 Olympic organizers, a member of the group told The Sick Times in a phone interview. The volunteer, Thomas, who wished to omit his last name, said the group had around one hundred members, some of whom have already resigned. More than 10,000 athletes arrived this month in Paris and a handful had already tested positive for Covid-19 prior to the games’ start on July 26, including five members of the women’s Australian water polo team. Around 15 million people are predicted to travel to Paris, including 2 million international travelers, at a time when the country is seeing an increase in Covid-19 cases, according to World Health Organization spokesperson Margaret Harris. Still, organizers and teams continue to downplay the spread of the disease. Australian team chief Anna Meares told Reuters: ‘I need to emphasize that we are treating Covid no differently to other bugs like the flu.’”

Elite Maleficence

“The CDC’s test for bird flu works, but it has issues” [News Medical]. “The agency has quietly worked since April to resolve a nagging issue with the test it developed, even as the virus swept through dairy farms and chicken houses across the country and infected at least 13 farmworkers this year. At a congressional hearing July 23, Rep. Brett Guthrie (R-Ky.) asked about the issue. “Boy, that rings of 2020,” he said, referring to when the nation was caught off guard by the covid-19 pandemic, in part because of dysfunctional tests made by the CDC. Demetre Daskalakis, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, responded that the agency rapidly developed a workaround that makes its bird flu test reliable. ‘The tests are 100% usable,’ he later told KFF Health News, adding that the FDA studied the tests and came to the same conclusion. The imperfect tests, which have a faulty element that sometimes requires testing a sample again, will be replaced soon. He added, ‘We have made sure that we’re offering a high-quality product.’” That just needs to be used twice instead of once. More: “Still, some researchers were unnerved by the news coming four months after the government declared a worrisome bird flu outbreak among cattle. The CDC’s test is the only one available for clinical use.” • We learn nothing….

Thanks, Jeff:

An example of how Google is killing independent sites like ourshttps://t.co/3TxALxDCKG

— HouseFresh (@ThisHouseFresh) July 29, 2024

Lambert here: New York hospitalization leveling out, and now WalGreens positivity down for two weeks, are the first positive signs I’ve seen in a long time. Wastewater still going strong, though!

TABLE 1: Daily Covid Charts

LEGEND

1) ★ for charts new today; all others are not updated.

2) For a full-size/full-resolution image, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open image in new tab.”

NOTES

[1] (CDC) This week’s wastewater map, with hot spots annotated. Keeps spreading.

[2] (CDC) Last week’s wastewater map.

[3] (CDC Variants) KP.* very popular.

[4] (ER) Worth noting Emergency Department use is now on a par with the first wave, in 2020.

[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Leveling off. Doesn’t need to be a permanent thing, of course. (The New York city area has form; in 2020, as the home of two international airports (JFK and EWR) it was an important entry point for the virus into the country (and from thence up the Hudson River valley, as the rich sought to escape, and then around the country through air travel.)

[6] (Hospitalization: CDC). The visualization suppresses what is, in percentage terms, a significant increase.

[7] (Walgreens) An optimist would see a peak.

[8] (Cleveland) Slowing. Comment on the Cleveland Clinic:

Ka-ching.

[9] (Travelers: Positivity) Up. Those sh*theads at CDC have changed the chart so that it doesn’t even run back to 1/21/23, as it used to, but now starts 1/1/24. There’s also no way to adjust the time rasnge. CDC really doesn’t want you to be able to take a historical view of the pandemic, or compare one surge to another. In an any case, that’s why the shape of the curve has changed.

[10] (Travelers: Variants) Same deal. Those sh*theads.

[11] Deaths low, but positivity up.

[12] Deaths low, ED up.

Stats Watch

Employment Situation: “United States Job Quits” [Trading Economics]. “The number of job quits in the US decreased to 3.282 million in June 2024 from a downwardly revised 3.403 million in May, reaching the lowest level since November 2020.”

Retail: “Federal regulator says Amazon can be held responsible for faulty goods sold on its marketplace” [CNBC]. “In a landmark order, the U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission said the agency unanimously agreed Amazon ‘fits squarely’ within the definition of a distributor of goods and bears responsibility for the recall of faulty products. The decision addresses a thorny issue faced by Amazon for years, with the company arguing it’s merely a conduit between third-party sellers and shoppers. A judge said Amazon’s fulfillment program for sellers give it “far-reaching control” over the products sold on its platform.” • I assume this will end up in the Courts… Still, good for the U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission!

Today’s Fear & Greed Index: 41 Fear (previous close: 45 Fear) [CNN]. One week ago: 54 (Neutral). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed). Last updated Jul 30 at 12:48:21 PM ET

The Gallery

Time to break out my boat shoes:

Zeitgeist Watch

“Why doesn’t advice work?” [Dynomight]. “My theory of procrastination is that a guy named Jim lives in your head. Before you try to do something, Jim calculates how hard it will be and what benefits it’s likely to bring. If he doesn’t like the ratio, he adds a ‘tax’ that makes it very hard to do the thing. Jim is stubborn and not very bright. But Jim Theory, if correct, explains more than just procrastination. A childhood friend of mine always wanted to be a programmer. He did it for fun as a teenager and was good at it, but in college he had to major in something else for financial reasons. Afterwards, he felt stuck in a career he didn’t like very much. I was sure he could still transition into programming. I begged him to try taking a night class, or get a low-level tech support job, or get some kind of online certification, or start an open-source project. I promised him that he could surely find someone who would pay him a below-market salary to do something programming-related. As I said these things, he would nod his head, but in his heart I think he never felt it could work. So he never did anything. It’s incredibly hard to do things when Jim isn’t on board.” • I think I know this Jim guy.

News of the Wired

“Was the Internet Designed To Survive a Nuclear Attack?” [Silicon Folklore]. • No, and in reality, not just according to Betteridge’s Law.

Contact information for plants: Readers, feel free to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) find out how to send me a check if you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to find out how to send me images of plants. Vegetables are fine! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary plants! If you want your handle to appear as a credit, please place it at the start of your mail in parentheses: (thus). Otherwise, I will anonymize by using your initials. See the previous Water Cooler (with plant) here. From AM:

AM writes: “The state of the backyard on June 24, 2024. Roses out, rhododendrons coming on strong, climbing hydrangeas at or near peak. Not sure what the yellow ones are. Doesn’t take much space to create an oasis.” Lovely!

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