terrestrial average surface temperature An analysis led by NASA scientists found that 2024 was the warmest since modern record-keeping began in 1880.
Global temperatures in 2024 were 2.30 degrees Fahrenheit (1.28 degrees Celsius) above the agency’s 20th century baseline (1951-1980), surpassing the record set in 2023. The new record comes after a 15-month streak (June 2023 to August 2024). Monthly Temperature Record – Unprecedented fever.
NASA scientists estimate that global temperatures in 2024 will be about 2.65 degrees Fahrenheit (1.47 degrees Celsius) warmer than the mid-19th century average (1850-1900). For more than half of 2024, average temperatures were more than 1.5 degrees Celsius above the baseline, and with mathematical uncertainty the average annual temperature may have exceeded this level for the first time.
“The Paris Agreement on climate change specifies efforts to keep temperatures below 1.5 degrees Celsius over the long term,” said Gavin Schmidt, director of NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies, an affiliate of the Columbia Climate School. “During a warm period on Earth 3 million years ago, when sea levels were tens of feet higher than today, temperatures were only about 3 degrees Celsius warmer than pre-industrial levels.”
Scientists have concluded that the warming trend in recent decades is driven by heat-trapping carbon dioxide. methane and other greenhouse gases. A recent report shows that in 2022 and 2023, the Earth will see record increases in carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels. international analysis. Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations have increased from pre-industrial levels of about 280 ppm in the 18th century to about 420 ppm today.
NASA and other federal agencies regularly collect data on greenhouse gas concentrations and emissions. This data can be found at: U.S. Greenhouse Gas Centeris a multi-agency effort that integrates information from observations and models with the goal of providing decision makers with a single location for data and analysis.
Temperatures in individual years can be affected by natural climate fluctuations, such as El Niño and La Niña, which alternately warm and cool the tropical Pacific Ocean. A strong El Niño that began in the fall of 2023 helped push global temperatures above previous records.
The heat wave that started in 2023 continued. exceed expectations Although El Niño has abated in 2024, Schmidt said. Researchers are working to identify contributing factors, including: possible climate impacts January 2022 Tonga volcanic eruption and recent reduce air pollutionThis can change the amount of clouds and how solar energy is reflected back into space.
“We don’t break records every year, but the long-term trend is clear,” Schmidt said. “We are already seeing impacts including extreme rainfall, heatwaves and increased risk of flooding, which will continue to worsen as long as emissions continue.”
NASA Organize your temperature records It uses surface temperature data collected from tens of thousands of weather stations and sea surface temperature data collected from ships and buoy-based instruments. The data is analyzed using methods that account for the varying spacing of temperature stations around the world and the effects of urban heating, which can distort calculations.
no way new evaluation The report, released last fall by scientists from the Colorado School of Mines, the National Science Foundation, the National Atmospheric and Oceanic Administration (NOAA), and NASA, further increased confidence in the agencies’ global and regional temperature data.
“When climate change occurs, we see it first at a global average, then at a continental scale, then at a regional scale. Now we’re seeing this at a local level,” Schmidt said. “The changes occurring in people’s everyday weather experiences have become very evident.”
An independent analysis by NOAA, Berkeley Earth, the UK Met Office and Europe’s Copernicus Climate Services also concluded that global surface temperatures in 2024 were the highest since modern record-keeping began. Scientists at the institution use much of the same temperature data for their analysis but use different methodologies and models. Each shows the same persistent warming trend.
Edited NASA press release.
