I thought I was getting a little tired, but people like EJ Antoni of the Heritage Foundation, WisGOP, and Steve Kopits reaffirmed my belief in how much work remains.
january:
The WIsconsin GOP claims Wisconsin is in a recession using the second quarter rule (which no longer applies to revised data).
WisGOP Can’t Count
There’s a reason we don’t declare recessions based on GDP an awful lot of the time.
Figure 1: Wisconsin GDP, latest vintage (blue) and as of January 2024 (tan), both in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. Search for: BEA.
february:
Zero Hedge uses: very Dictionary A specific definition of real interest rate.
ZeroHedge is focused on adaptive expectations
March:
Think before you report surprising numbers!
Math is hard!
april:
The black and white truth:
Best amendment *ever*
May:
I don’t understand how some people can look at a graph and “not see” the obvious.
“You have to look pretty hard to find a ‘trade war’ effect in the data.”
Bonus: Best graphics
Maury Obstfeld: “Trump’s plan for the Fed and the dollar is a one-way ticket back to the inflationary chaos of the 1970s.”
June:
Grocery price evaluations from someone who has never grocery shopped before.
“Food costs are doubled, tripled, quadrupled… ”
July:
What on earth is “QCES”? And pay attention to the footnotes. Whether the series is adapted seasonally.
August:
Nativism applies to economics as practiced by Heritage.
The Great Alternative “Theory” * Appeared in Heritage Economics
September:
This is my first time coming across Oren Cass’ article on trading…
“It’s like having no economic education at all…”
October:
Ready for next time Journal of non-reproducible results.
Recession after 2022? The magic asterisk-mystery meat-special sauce approach to national income accounting.
continue:
Updated article: No, we haven’t had a recession since 2022.
November:
I am sure!
Russian Central Bank telegram account: “Everything will be fine.”
december:
Another article from X-FIles – Statistics Edition:
DiMartino Booth: “We know that many government statisticians are very left-wing in nature…”
Looking forward to 2025, I’ll be looking at Heritage, ZeroHedge, and more examples of bad analysis to use as case studies in my statistics classes.
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