The competition for the first pick in the 2025 NFL Draft is in full swing from the middle of the 2024 season. According to ESPN’s Football Power Index projections, six teams have at least a 10% chance of finishing in the top spot.
We asked NFL Nation reporters to size up each of the bottom-ranked franchises after 10 weeks. How did each team lose control of the season? Are there any big changes coming in the offseason? NFL draft analyst Jordan Reid then played it forward and suggested how each team could use the No. 1 pick. What team needs a franchise quarterback? And which prospects fit and can meet the big needs?
Let’s start with the Giants, who currently have the best chance of making the No. 1 pick.
Go to Team:
car | Jax | LV
Northeast | New York | heat
FPI Opportunity to Win #1 Pick: 16.9%
FPI Opportunity to Win Top 5 Picks: 62.7%
Where did I go wrong? There are many to choose from here. The Giants are last in the NFL with 15.4 points per game, they give up the most yards per rush (5.3), and their special teams are terrible. This covers a significant portion of all three steps. It’s hard to win that way.
Are big changes coming soon? All signs point to the Giants being ready to bench quarterback Daniel Jones. It will come sooner rather than later. As for general manager Joe Schon and coach Brian Daboll, they said owner John Mara is safe and the team is committed to them. But would that hold if the Giants went 4-13 and/or 0-9 at home? — Jordan Lannan
What can we do with our top picks? I like the fit of Miami quarterback Cam Ward. It’s unlikely that Jones will start for the Giants next season (and possibly not with the team at all), and New York will likely be looking for a new franchise signal caller. Ward is an electric playmaker who can make and make every throw. Daboll can help him improve over time and limit his decision-making mistakes. — lead
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Schefter: I think Daniel Jones played his last snap for the Giants.
Adam Schefter predicts Daniel Jones will play his final snap as a New York Giant.
FPI Opportunity to Win #1 Pick: 16.2%
FPI Opportunities to Earn Top 5 Picks: 64.1%
Where did I go wrong? They started with seven different offensive line configurations in their first seven games. This was due to poor performance and missing evaluations of free agent signings Chukwuma Okorafor and Nick Leverett, which contributed to the fourth-worst offense in that span. The under-talented receiver group was also hurt, as was the loss of center David Andrews (shoulder), linebacker Ja’Whaun Bentley (torn pectoral muscle), safety Jabrill Peppers (commissioner’s exempt list) and defensive tackle Christian Barmore (blood clot). .
Are big changes coming soon? Nothing important. The biggest change occurred in Week 6 when rookie Drake Maye became the starter behind Jacoby Brissett. He subsequently raised the hopes of the organization with his play and leadership. — Mike Race
What can we do with our top picks? New England is looking at Texans offensive tackle Kelvin Banks Jr. as an option since they drafted a quarterback (May) last April. The protection in front of Maye is arguably the weakest part of the roster. The Pats need multiple starters along the offensive line, and Banks would provide stability at tackle. He has the strength and quick feet needed to protect Maye’s blindside. — lead
FPI Opportunity to Win #1 Pick: 15.4%
FPI Opportunities to Earn Top 5 Picks: 59.2%
Where did I go wrong? It’s a mess. The defense is one of the worst units in the NFL (last in yards per game and 26th in scoring), and the offense can’t produce early in games. As a result, the Jaguars are playing from behind most of the time. Injuries have sidelined some of their best players (especially Christian Kirk) and Trevor Lawrence has not been able to improve his play. Lawrence will now sit out Sunday’s second game due to a shoulder injury.
Are big changes coming soon? Owner Shad Khan said this is the best Jaguars team he’s ever had and he looks forward to the playoffs in 2024. So considering the 2-8 record, coach Doug Pederson and general manager Trent Baalke are clearly in the hot seat. A decision on what happens next could come as early as next week when they say goodbye. Nonetheless, Khan has been patient when making big decisions in the past. Maybe give him one more season to turn things around. — Michael DiRocco
What can we do with our top picks? The Jaguars could land a top draft pick for the third time in five seasons. After signing Lawrence to a five-year, $275 million extension, quarterbacking is no longer an option. So what about Colorado receiver/cornerback Travis Hunter? As the top prospect on my draft board, Hunter would give the Jaguars a versatile option on both sides of the ball. Both receivers and cornerbacks need help. — lead
FPI Opportunity to Win #1 Pick: 13.8%
FPI Opportunities to Earn Top 5 Picks: 54.2%
Where did I go wrong? The Titans’ offensive line, especially right tackle, has been a disaster. In the third and long-term situation, the lack of protection is obvious and the Titans cannot use the developing path because they do not have time to complete it. They have scored 20 or more points only twice this season.
Are big changes coming soon? I don’t think there will be any major changes to the front office or coaching staff. Owner Amy Adams Strunk made the surprising move of firing general manager John Robinson in 2022 and coach Mike Vrabel in January. Current general manager Ran Carthon and coach Brian Callahan appear to be safe for now. But don’t be surprised if the Titans bring in a new special teams coordinator. Meanwhile, the jury is still out on quarterback Will Levis as a future starter. — Turon Davenport
What can we do with our top picks? With Levis’ turnover issues and Mason Rudolph being a career backup, the Titans are probably another team that would use their top pick on a franchise quarterback. All eyes will be on Colorado quarterback Shedeur Sanders and Miami’s Ward. Sanders’ skill set will translate well into Callahan’s system due to his excellent accuracy and determination when he is guarded. — lead
FPI Opportunity to Win #1 Pick: 11.9%
FPI Opportunities to Earn Top 5 Picks: 51.6%
Where did I go wrong? Silver and black have almost no silver lining. The lack of a true No. 1 quarterback (Gardner Minshew, Aidan O’Connell and Desmond Ridder have all failed) and the worst rushing attack in the league have already cost Luke Getsy his job as offensive coordinator, and things aren’t getting any better.
Are there big changes coming soon? With both Getsy, offensive line coach James Cregg and quarterbacks coach Rich Scangarello fired, all eyes turned to Antonio Pierce. Director Lee temporarily activated the organization last fall and took on a full-time position. But if things continue to get worse, it wouldn’t be hard to imagine another full rebuild centered around the top draft picks. — Paul Gutierrez
What can we do with our top picks? Sanders would be a great addition to this team. After two years of uneven quarterback play and 10 weeks of seesawing between signal callers, the Raiders are a strong contender to draft a passer in April. Remember, Las Vegas missed out on its 2024 top six, all of whom were eliminated before the team finished 13th. Sanders is the ideal player. He has the balance, ball placement and charisma to fit perfectly in this organization. — lead
FPI Opportunity to Win #1 Pick: 10.0%
FPI Opportunity to Earn Top 5 Picks: 57.1%
Where did I go wrong? The beginning of the season was sluggish due to quarterback Bryce Young’s poor early play, but the bigger problem was injuries. Pro Bowl defensive tackle Derrick Brown suffered a season-ending injury in the opener. Then linebacker Shaq Thompson tore his Achilles tendon. Outside linebacker DJ Wonnum did not debut until last Sunday. A sound defense would at least give Carolina a chance.
Are big changes coming soon? Second-round pick Jonathon Brooks should be ready after the bye week, but running back Chuba Hubbard is playing so well that the rookie may not get as much attention. The looming question is whether Young, who has won two straight, will retain his starting job or whether Andy Dalton will get his chance again. The quarterback’s future remains the focus. — David Newton
What can we do with our top picks? Young has played better since being reinserted as a starter, which will probably prevent the Panthers from drafting another signal caller. The Panthers are still in the rebuilding phase and need to recruit young talent with high potential across the board. Hunter would be a good fit, and Michigan defensive tackle Mason Graham has impressive traits and a lot of upside. Combining Graham and Brown gives the Panthers a solid interior defensive front. — lead
