Alternative for Germany has won elections in the eastern state of Thuringia, the first time in Germany’s post-war history that a far-right party has won a state election.
According to preliminary results, the AfD came first in Thuringia with 32.8 percent, far ahead of all other parties. The center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) came in second with 23.6 percent.
In the neighboring state of Saxony, public broadcaster ZDF compared the two parties’ approval ratings and predicted the CDU would win 31.9 percent, with the AfD coming in second with 30.6 percent.
AfD co-chair Tino Churupala described the party’s results in Thuringia as “surprising”.
“One thing is clear: the will of the voters is that there needs to be a political change in both Saxony and Thuringia,” he said. “If you want to have credible politics, you can’t do it without the AfD.”
The result was a disaster for Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s three-party coalition government, with the Social Democrats, Greens and Freedom Party expected to fall into single digits in both states.
In Thuringia, the SPD recorded its worst performance in a state election in German history since World War II, winning just 6.1 percent of the vote.
The phenomenon reflects growing discontent among East Germans with a government plagued by high inflation, economic stagnation, soaring energy costs and constant infighting.
But it also shows that voters are increasingly abandoning the center and opting for populist parties on the political periphery.
Omid Nuripour, co-chairman of the Green Party, described the election as a “turning point”.
“People in the cultural community, people with immigrant roots, people who go to gay pride are really scared,” Nouripour said. “We have to stand with them and defend democracy.”
The AfD was not the only party to benefit from the anger of the East Germans, who voted heavily for the new far-left party, the Saar Wagenknecht Coalition (BSW), which won 15.8% in Thuringia and, according to ZDF, 11.8% in Saxony.
Voters were drawn to the AfD and BSW, which have expressed opposition to the war in Ukraine. Both parties have strongly criticized German arms supplies to Kiev and Western sanctions against Russia, and have called for negotiations to end the fighting.
The results show that 34 years after German reunification, large numbers of people in the two former communist eastern regions are deeply disillusioned with the mainstream parties in the center and frustrated with the way Germany is run.
Despite its impressive performance in Thuringia, the AfD will not be able to form a government there. It will not have the parliamentary majority needed to govern, as other parties will not cooperate.
Founded 11 years ago by economists angry about the eurozone bailout, the AfD has now transformed into a hardline, historically revisionist nationalist party that fiercely opposes immigration.
Germany’s state intelligence agency has labelled the party’s branches in Saxony and Thuringia as “right-wing extremist.”
In Thuringia, the party is led by nationalist Bjorn Höcke, who has been fined twice by a local court this year for using banned Nazi slogans in speeches to his supporters.
But forming a viable coalition without the AfD could be difficult. For example, if the CDU were to govern in Thuringia, it might have to work with the BSW, an option that many in the center-right party find unacceptable.
Wagenknecht, a former communist seen by many as a defender of Russian President Vladimir Putin, has made a change in Germany’s policy toward Ukraine a prerequisite for coalition talks.
She said voters wanted to see “a different German foreign policy.”
“They want to achieve more peace and more diplomacy, and that is our condition. [joining] “We need a government,” she told ZDF.
This has sparked anger within the CDU, which has been entrenched in its support for Ukraine and has been pressuring the Scholz government, the second-largest provider of military aid to Kiev after the United States, to supply more weapons.
Hocke took a similar stance to Wagenknecht, saying in his election speech that the AfD was opposed to “some crazy Western elites trying to drag Germany into a war with Russia”.
But it may not be possible for the CDU to form a government with the BSW. According to ZDF’s analysis, even a three-way alliance of the CDU, BSW and Social Democrats would fall one seat short of a majority in the 90-seat Thuringian parliament.
The campaign was overshadowed by a terrorist attack in Solingen, West Germany, on August 23. A man stabbed three people to death and wounded eight others. The man, a Syrian national suspected of being a member of ISIS, was arrested a day after handing himself over to police.
Both the AfD and the BSW have used the incident as an opportunity to call for the deportation of asylum seekers who commit crimes, claiming that uncontrolled immigration has led to a surge in violent crime on German streets.
The poor performance of the three parties in Scholz’s coalition government (SPD, Greens and Freedom Party) has led to speculation that one of them could step down, leading to early elections.
But experts say that outcome is unlikely. All three are so far underperforming in national polls that they have little incentive to face voters in the next election, scheduled for the fall of 2025.
