In the ongoing debate over U.S. trade policy, politicians and pundits often claim that the public supports tariffs and other protectionist measures—like those the Trump and Biden administrations have given us. New Cato Institute voteBut this paints a more complex picture. Americans may like the idea of tariffs and “buy American” policies, but support for them wanes when faced with rising prices and other negative consequences.
This disconnect between abstract preferences and real-world behavior with concrete downsides challenges the protectionist discourse that currently dominates both sides of the political spectrum.
This survey, conducted by YouGov, is based on 2,000 Americans. The beauty of this survey is that it does two things well. First, it asks people what they think about a particular policy. Then, it asks them again about the actual costs and consequences of the policy, as predicted by a robust survey. When you look at the different answers to the two questions, it gives a much better picture of how Americans feel about the issue than most typical polls.
Economists know that tariffs ultimately increase the price of the goods to which they apply. Tariffs are taxes on imported goods. These taxes are paid by consumers. Americans either pay more for the same imported goods or pay a higher price for domestically produced substitutes (which may lower quality because producers are protected from foreign competition).
Polls show how Americans’ initial support for protectionist measures crumbles when confronted with the idea of higher prices. For example, when asked whether they would support tariffs on imported jeans, 62% initially support such measures as a way to increase domestic production and employment. But when such tariffs raise prices by just $10, a majority oppose them. When the price increase reaches $50, a surprising 87% oppose the tariffs.
This price sensitivity extends to the “Buy American” sentiment. While 75% of Americans claim to prefer domestically made products, all else being equal, 51% would choose a cheaper foreign item of similar quality. More significantly, 70% would not pay a $10 premium for an American-made frying pan, and 76% had not intentionally purchased a US product in the week prior to the survey.
These findings reveal a serious flaw in the argument for protectionist policies: Americans seem to agree with the abstract notion of supporting domestic industry, but they vote with their wallets for the cheapest product, regardless of its origin.
The reality check is important as policymakers in both parties parrot protectionist rhetoric and propagate protectionist policies. Trump-era tariffs, which the Biden administration largely retained, were sold to the public as a way to revive manufacturing jobs and counter China’s economic influence. But this poll suggests that support for tariffs is likely to plummet as Americans feel the pressure of higher prices.
Polls show two other truths that populist politicians want to ignore. First, most Americans are not as obsessed with trade as politicians are. In fact, only 1% of Americans consider trade a top priority. Second, 66% believe that global trade is good for the U.S. economy, and 58% correctly believe that it helps raise their standard of living. In fact, 63% would prefer to increase U.S. participation in trade.
So what is the way forward? First, we need honest and clear communication about the trade-offs involved in trade policy. Policymakers need to acknowledge that protectionist measures raise consumer prices. It is up to them to convince us that any benefits to specific industries are worth it.
Second, if the goal is to support American workers and industry, alternatives that do not directly raise consumer prices should be explored. These could include deregulating manufacturing and reforming the capital gains tax to encourage domestic investment and American productivity, without resorting to trade barriers.
Third, we need better public education on trade issues. The better Americans understand the complexities of global trade and how it affects their everyday lives, the better equipped they will be to evaluate policy proposals and hold their representatives accountable.
Finally, policymakers should pay attention not only to what Americans say, but also to what they do. This poll clearly shows that Americans, when under pressure, prioritize cheap goods over protectionist ideals. Trade policies that ignore this fact are likely to face significant backlash when their effects are felt in the markets.
Navigating the complexities of global trade in an increasingly interconnected world requires policies that reflect reality rather than clinging to protectionist myths that are out of sync with Americans’ actual behavior and preferences.
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