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An overly simplistic model of positive and negative contagion

MONews
3 Min Read

When people feel bad and act badly, even if only rhetorically, they make those around them feel worse as well. It’s a simple explanation of negative mood contagion.

There is also positive contagion, but it is harder to achieve. If nine people say nice things about you and one person says a somewhat believable insult, all you are left with is the insult.

Most social time is a relatively stable mix of positive and negative emotions, but sometimes the dynamics of negative contagion dominate, with negativity leading to more negativity. This probably happened in Europe before World War I, and it is probably happening in many countries today, including the United States. Very bad events, such as financial crises, can also trigger cycles of negative contagion.

This negative contagion validates itself. If all negative emotions were collectively expressed and actually made the outcome worse, then the negative emotions would seem justified. In this equilibrium, the negative emotions about “being against others” would be true, but it would still be better to avoid the equilibrium altogether.

The only way a country can break out of a negative cycle is by winning a major war, or by a political entrepreneur with enough energy and reforms to change the balance, as Ronald Reagan did in the United States. Still, once a negative cycle is in place, it is hard to break. That said, things do get worse over time, so there is an option for positive entrepreneurs. At least if they can overcome the adjustment problem and make enough people feel better.

Many thinkers and writers contribute to this balance of negative emotions, especially when they write about each other. Even if their essential points are right, their social marginal products are usually negative, but we can learn from them because they compete to offer the sharpest criticism.

If you can avoid being overwhelmed by the peer pressure of this negative dynamic, the private and social rewards are high. You can keep going and make something happen. However, few people can resist Durkheim’s logic, no matter how superficially opposed it may be. In fact, opponents are often the ones most at risk of being caught up in it, because they are very good at rejecting and criticizing the arguments of the opposition.

Happy Independence Day!

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