The Conference Board’s confidence index exceeded consensus (103.3 > 100.9). The July index was revised upward. Here are the August readings on confidence, sentiment, and news:
Figure 1: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (blue, left scale), Conference Board Consumer Confidence (brown, left scale), both degraded and normalized by standard deviation (for sample periods shown); Shapiro, Sudhoff, and Wilson (2020) Daily News Sentiment Index (black, right scale). August News Index observations are through August 25, 2024. NBER-defined peak-trough recession dates are shown in gray. Source: U.Mich via FRED, Conference Board via Investing.com, SF FederalNBER and author’s calculations.
Let’s take a closer look at how sentiment has changed since the Democratic presidential nominee changed.
Figure 1: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index Change since July 2024 – Democrats (blue), Consumer Sentiment Index – Republicans (red), Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index (green), Source: U.Mich, Conference Board via Investing.com and author’s calculations.
The sentiment shifted differently between Democrats and Republicans.
