The disease prediction is the same as the weather forecast. We cannot predict the details of a specific outbreak or a specific storm, but we can identify when this threat comes to mind and prepared accordingly.
The virus that causes avian influenza is a potential threat to global health. Recent animal outbreak In the lower type of H5N1, scientists were particularly problems.
Human infections in H5N1 are relatively rare More than 900 known cases worldwide Since 2003- Almost 50 %of this case was fatal -The mortality rate 20 times higher Than the flu infectious disease in 1918. If the worst of this rare infection is common among people, the results can be fatal.
Colleagues approached potential disease threats from anthropological perspective And me I recently published a book called “”.Emerging infections: Three mechanics from prehistoric times to the present“To inspect The way human behavior is formed The evolution of infectious diseases that lasts for 10,000 years, starting with the first appearance of the Neolithic era.
From this deep time point of view, it is clear that the H5N1 shows a common pattern. Phasing invasion From animals to human population. Like many emerging viruses, H5N1 is causing evolutionary changes that can be transmitted among people.
The period between these evolutionary stages offers a chance to slow this process and avoid world disasters.
Leakage and virus chatter
When a disease -induced pathogen, such as the flu virus, already adapts to infect certain animal species, it can eventually evolve the ability to infect new species like humans. A process called Spiel Over.
The leak is a demanding company. In order to succeed, the pathogen must have the right set. Molecule “Key” It is compatible with the molecule “lock” of the host, so you can disassemble and remove it from the host cell to kidnap the replica machine.
Since this lock is often different for each species, the pathogen may have to try many different keys before infecting a completely new host species.
For example, the heights that are successfully used to infect chickens and ducks may not work for cows and humans. And since the new key can only be made through any mutation, the probability of getting all the right keys is very thin.
Given this evolutionary challenge, the pathogen Often stuck Adapt to the leak process. New variations of the pathogen can be delivered from animals. More vulnerable Existing diseases are likely to extend the exposure to the pathogen and infect them.
Nevertheless, the pathogen may not be transmitted to others from the human host. This is the current situation of H5N1.
I’ve been there for the last year Many animals outbreaks Various wild and livestock, especially between birds and cows. But there were also small numbers of human cases, most of which occurred. Poultry and dairy workers We worked closely with many infected animals.
Epidiologists call this situation Virus: A small rupture of unclear information that can add a very ominous message due to the sporadic development that looks like a chattering signal of a small and coded wireless communication. In the case of viral chatter, the message will be human infectious diseases.
Surprising and individual cases are proposed among people. Human-human propagation It can occur at some point. Nevertheless, no one knows how long or how much it takes to happen to happen.
The influenza virus evolves quickly. This is partially infected with two or more Fur varieties at the same time. Reorganize their genetic materials It produces completely new varieties.
These reconstruction events are more likely to occur when there are various host species. Therefore, H5N1 is known to be infected. At least 450 other animal species. It may not take a long time for a virus chatter to reach a larger human epidemic.
Reconstruct the trajectory
The good news is that people can take basic measures to delay the evolution of H5N1, and the general influenza’s fatality can potentially decrease if it becomes a common human infection. But the government and companies must act.
People can start by better caring for food animals. that The total weight of the world poultry It is larger than all wild bird species combined. So most geography H5N1 occurs Track more closely with large houses and living poultry transmissions than the overlapping and mobile patterns of wild aquatic birds.
Reducing these agricultural practices can help to suppress the evolution and spread of H5N1.
People can also take care of themselves better. At the individual level, most people General seasonal influenza virus Circle every year.
At first glance, this practice may seem to be involved in the emergence of bird influenza. However, in addition to preventing seasonal diseases, vaccinations for general human varieties of viruses will reduce the probability of being mixed with bird varieties and give human properties for human propagation.
At the population level, society can work together Improves nutrition and hygiene In the poorest population in the world. History has shown that the overall resistance to new infections with improved nutrition is increased and hygiene is improved. And the disease problem of all society in today’s interconnected world It will eventually spread In every society.
More than 10,000 years, human behavior has formed an evolutionary trajectory of infectious diseases. Knowing this can make this trajectory better.
Ron BarrettProfessor of Anthropology, Macalester College
This article has been published conversation According to Creative Commons License. Read Original article.
