Below is a chart showing the main indicators followed by the NBER BCDC and monthly GDP.
Figure 1: CES nonfarm payroll (NFP) employment (bold blue), private sector employment (orange), industrial production (red), personal income excluding current transfers for Ch. 2017$ (bold green), manufacturing and trade sales for Ch. 2017$ (black), consumption for Ch. 2017$ (light blue), monthly GDP for Ch. 2017$ (pink), log GDP (blue bars), all normalized to 2023M04=0. Source: BLS via FRED, Federal Reserve, BEA 2024Q2 pre-release, S&P Global Market Insights (Former Macroeconomic Advisor, IHS Markit) (8/1/(released in 2024) and author’s calculations.
With positive (albeit slower) employment growth, it is hard to believe that a recession began in July, even considering that the Sahm Rule indicator crossed the 0.50 threshold (0.50 ppts). Using current data, the indicator reads 0.49 ppts when calculated to 3 significant figures (2 decimal places).
NFP is the first monthly reading for July. The Lewis/Mertens/Stock NY Fed WEI is reading 1.95% for the week ending 7/27. The corresponding Baumeister/Leiva-Leon/Sims WECI is reading 0.15, which would imply a growth rate of 2.15% if the trend growth rate is 2%.
