Climate change could double temperature-related deaths in the U.S. by mid-century

Heat-related deaths are on the rise in the United States. But how serious will it be in 20, 30, or 40 years? Scientists now have a clue.

It is estimated that more than 8,000 deaths in the United States are related to extreme temperatures (both hot and cold) each year. In the coming decades, That number could double or triple.The heat was largely to blame, researchers said in a Sept. 20 report. JAMA Network Open.

“As the climate warms, heat waves are increasing in frequency, duration and intensity. It’s important to understand how this will impact our health,” said Sameed Khatana, a cardiologist at the University of Pennsylvania.. Our bodies can withstand extreme heat, but as temperatures rise, this ability reaches its limit.Serial Number: June 21, 2024).

Khatana and colleagues looked at two hypothetical futures: one with low greenhouse gas emissions growth and one with high emissions growth.Serial Number: 1/7/20) First, using the monthly number of days and deaths with extreme temperatures from 2008 to 2019, the researchers estimated the number of deaths associated with extreme temperatures today. Using existing projections of what temperatures and population sizes would be like in the next few decades, the team estimated the number of deaths associated with extreme temperatures in the mid-21st century for each hypothetical future.

The team found that if emissions growth is lowered, the number of annual deaths could double between 2036 and 2065, while if emissions growth is higher, the number could triple.

Researchers noted that the groups with the largest increases in deaths were older adults, non-Hispanic black adults, Hispanic adults and adults living in urban areas.Serial Number: 4/8/24) This may be due to the growing population of these demographic groups, but Katana says, “Neighborhoods with large minority populations also tend to have less tree cover and less access to air conditioning, which affects the temperatures people experience.”

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