The world’s extreme weather leads more and more deaths, causing billions of damage, threatening food and water resources security, and increasing forced migration. However, according to the laws of physics, computer simulation of the vast and complex climatic system of the earth has missed important signals for some of the most sophisticated climate models.
Now the research paper has been published. Natural communicationFeng Jiang’s joint writing; Climate scientist Richard Seager, Columbia Climate School Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory and Mark Cane Palisades Mate Sciences (Retired) Professor (Retired) is the main reason why the climate model obtains We have a research results. Many are wrong.
Seager said, “Our Lamont works are at the center of the discussion of the climate science community and triggered the world’s climate scientists to reconsider the model. “The inconsistency can be found in the tropical Pacific. Specifically, the equator is cold tongue. ” The cold tongue is relatively cool water from Peru to the Western Pacific, the Western Pacific, and one -fourth of the circumference of the earth. I rejected the prediction by not warming the way the generation of the climate model speaks.
Seager said, “The rest of the tropical sea prefer to get wet in other areas, such as Amazon, which is not warm while being built in southwestern South Africa and Southeast Asia South America. “It also means more tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin.”
By misrepresenting the trend of cold tongue temperature, the climate model will be predicted for local climate change in these and other regions. It is a famous inconsistency for more than 20 years. Many scientists believed that natural El Niño southern vibration volatility is response to the rise of greenhouse gases, and eventually cold tongue will begin warming up and match the model. It didn’t happen.
“There is still a disagreement between the model and the observation for 27 years. In fact, it is not smaller and bigger over time, ”said Seager. “It’s time to improve the model to better capture the process that controls the surface temperature response to the CO2 in the tropical pacific.”
This study shows two patterns for the first time. One is natural volatility and has been steadily emerging since the mid -1950s, vibration of the so -called Pacific that vibrates back and forth. Trend studies are called the Pacific Climate Change (PCC) pattern. Scientists argue that the new PCC pattern is a tropical Pacific reaction to the rise of CO2.
Jiang said, “Our findings have set a way to help climate modelers speak differently. “The overall question of how the tropical Pacific reacts to the CO2 compulsory is a big problem about local climate change and how much climate warming we can experience.”
Jiang and Seager say that a lot of work is still over. However, this latest study has an important guideline for climate modelers, especially in the cold tongue, simulating the appearance patterns to simulate emergency patterns to improve the prediction of regional and world climate change and the impact on extreme weather. It is pointed out the need to solve.
