Coffee Break: Armed Mad House -Drone’s injury

There is something new in military work. Inexpensive and deadly small drone helicopters are revolutionizing the existing war. The New York Times has recently operated a detailed feature in a refreshing departure from journalism. article Explain the importance of drone wars in the battle of Ukrainian. The article said that about 70%of all casualties in the Ukrainian war were made by drones. In this coffee brake, I can see the emergence of unmanned weapons more wider and consider the future.

Drone explosion

Drones are experiencing evolutionary explosions as they invade all military conflict areas. In the air, land, sea, and even in space, drones promise to dramatically change the nature of armed conflict. I don’t want to make all categories of drone life, but I’m evolving in an unexpected way.

The possibility of ORWELLIAN is not difficult to imagine

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9hktmnukowk

Technology revitalization technology

The reason the drone is very fast and unpredictably evolved is that both microchip power and AI software technology are in the index growth curve. The inexpensive and competent cameras and processors of our phone provide eyes and brains for cheap drones. At the same time, the intense competition of AI development pushes the border of mechanical vision, problem solving and adaptation of drones. Inorganic designers can now use COTS (commercial shelf commercial) hardware and software that dramatically reduce drone costs. In addition, the ability to upgrade the drone’s “intelligence” by downloading software means that unlike traditional military hardware, the function of drone arsenal can continue to increase after distributing hardware.

Swarm

The quantity has the quality itself. Joseph Stalin

A $ 5,000 drone on the Ukrainian battlefield provided us a $ 7 million M1 ABRAMS tank. Drones can attack the weakest point of the thinnest tank, so a single drone usually achieves mobility kills, allowing the tank from moving. Then subsequent drone attacks can be completely destroyed. A car with less armor is usually destroyed by a single drone shock.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O2FCQV-M9QM

Many measures were taken to cope with the drone threat, but they were very inefficient. Interfering with the signal of controlling drones does not work with a drone that controls optical fiber cables or drones using a machine vision for terminal guidance. Active protection system (APSDesigned to intercept the drone is expensive, dangerous for friendly power, and inevitable. It is also unrealistic to modify AP to all vehicles on the battlefield. The improvised “turtle tank” covered with external gloves can survive some drone hits, but drones can find the gap of armor or drop the mine in front of it.

The cost efficiency of the military drone prefers the overwhelming use. In the Ukrainian war, there are so many drones that are often used to attack a small number of infantry groups and sometimes individual soldiers.

Here is a list of drone types used in this war.

Oda loop and Kill chain

Great intellectual achievement Colonel John Boyd It was a universal model of competitive dynamics in armed conflict. Boyd is the essence of some fighting. Oda loop. Each fighter spends the situation, orients new information, and decides on the action, and acts according to the decision. Everything else is equal, and a combatant who can run an OODA loop faster than the other person will win the fight. The genius of Boyd’s model is that it expands across the entire dispute of the overall dispute, from the ring boxer to the market competitors.

If you overlap the graphics of the OODA loop in the diagram of the current drone attack kill chain, it is clear that the OODA loop will accelerate and give a competitive advantage if you remove the human decision input in the chain’s participation stage. This is the cause of the evolutionary pressure that can give drone developers and operators to participate in AI-judo drones.

Drone alone (aka skynet)

Totally replacing human combatants by drone forces is a technically feasible final state for the evolution of drone weapons. There is no reason for the proper software to imitate and improve the command hierarchy of the human army. High decision -making bandwidth of automated control nodes can lead to efficient and flexible force configuration. Therefore, under the competitive pressure pressure, the current hybrid human/drone combat order is likely to convert the composition to the entire drone with a significant autonomy operated according to the high level of human guidelines.

The obvious danger of a complete automated army is out of human control. The description of the AI ​​-oriented murder machine converted against human producers is now a necessity of dystopian science fiction. Thus, a significant design effort will be made to prevent the Run Away drone forces. However, considering the self -production and adaptive characteristics of the future AI software, the reliability of this absolute control is uncertain. Unfortunately, as with the emergence of nuclear weapons, the drone war is from the disease. Civilization faces new dangers from technology innovation.

conclusion

The rise of drones comply with malicious action equations that threaten the modern world.

Technical originality + organized irresponsibility = increased risk of disasters

The originality of the global STEM personnel, which is highly trained, financed, and motivated, creates a steady flow of unprecedented weapons innovation. Strong companies and government agencies are not paying attention to the long -term danger, but they are funding and deploying these weapons. As a result, the complex of risks that cannot be persistent can lead to danger of the world, human extinction. To emphasize John Donne: The drone is not united. They are for you.