Daniil Medvedev’s knuckleball in the fastball era | ATP Tour

Beyond the numbers

Backhand Richness: Medvedev’s Knuckleball in the Fastball Era

Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analyzes Medvedev’s backhand.

September 24, 2024

No one loves the backhand more than Daniil Medvedev.

According to Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers groundstroke analysis for the 2024 season, Medvedev is the only player in the top 20 who hits his backhand more than his forehand. The data set is taken from ATP matches played on Hawk-Eye courts. Medvedev is the king of the “backhand cage” strategy, trapping his opponents in sharp-angled backhand ad-court exchanges and forcing them to take more risks by trying to escape his clutches along the line.

Medvedev’s opponents are doomed if they get into trouble, and doomed if they don’t. They have little chance of beating him backhand to backhand, and at the same time, it’s too risky to hit along the line to get out of a backhand blocking pattern.

The six players in the top 20 of the PIF ATP Rankings with the highest backhand success rates are:

1) Daniil Medvedev 53.1%
2) Alex de Minaur 49.4%
3) Taylor Fritz 49%
4) Sebastian Korda 48.9%
5) Novak Djokovic 48.9%
6) Francis Tiafoe 48.2%

What’s interesting is that Medvedev is in the top 20 players who throw the most backhands on the court. He was the only player in the data set who threw more than 90% of his backhands in play.

Here are six players who hit more than 87% of their backhands into the court:

1) Daniil Medvedev 90.2%
2) Novak Djokovic 88.3%
3) Jack Draper 88%
4) Casper Rudd 87.8%
5) Alexander Zverev 87.3%
6) Alex de Minor 87%

Medvedev hit 3,253 backhands in the data set. He missed only 319 of them. The average backhand speed on the ATP Tour is 68 mph. Medvedev’s backhand is exactly that. He didn’t overwork it because he wanted to play through his opponent, but he didn’t just push it in either.

Medvedev rarely slices his backhand from the wing. The 2024 tour average is 21% backhand slice. Medvedev slices just 9%. He prefers to turn his body and shovel the ball back flat and deep, almost always giving his opponents nothing to work with.

Medvedev hits his backhand flatter than most. The tour average for backhand topspin is 1,775 rpm. Medvedev’s average is just 1,496 rpm. The flatter it is, the lower it is. The tour average for backhand height above the net is 0.73 m. Medvedev’s is 0.69 m. Opponents are used to higher balls with topspin. Medvedev is only concerned with making his opponents uncomfortable.

Medvedev’s backhand is simply superior to that of other players of his type.

Medvedev’s backhand is not what you expect from him. He uses a ton of backhands. They come in almost flat from the bottom of the strike zone. You don’t know what to do with them except shovel them cross-court. That’s the first mistake. If you try to attack Medvedev’s backhand, you encourage overhitting. That’s the second mistake.

Medvedev is back in an era with more forehand and more raw groundstroke power. His backhand is disorienting and disorienting. It’s the knuckleball of the fastball era. As the tour returns to the outdoor hard courts of Asia and the indoor hard courts of Europe to finish the year, Medvedev will be doing exactly what he does on his favorite court, completely bewildering his opponents.