The World Meteorological Organization, which is tracking the path of deadly Hurricane Beryl in the Caribbean, told AFP that more storms with similar characteristics could occur in the future.
A record-breaking tropical depression has rapidly intensified, sucking energy from the warm Atlantic Ocean and developing into a rain-producing system, according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the United Nations’ meteorological and climate agency.
Anclair Fontan, science director for the World Meteorological Organization’s Tropical Cyclone Programme, said Beryl is a sign that the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is set to be very active.
How did Beryl evolve?
“This developed very rapidly in an area that was unusual for this time period.
“It reached level 4 in June. That was the fastest we’ve ever seen. It quickly got to level 5 after that, so it’s been escalating very quickly.”
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“It reached Category 5 so early in the season. That’s really, really unusual. Hurricane Beryl really broke the record.
“For more than a year, the positive anomaly of warm water has been evident in this area.
“So cyclones feed off the energy of the ocean, so they produce a tremendous amount of energy.
“If we have a system this strong this early in the hurricane season… it looks like we’re going to have a very active season in 2024.”
Where will Beryl go next?
“Beryl will head to the Yucatan Peninsula.
“Beryl’s strength is expected to weaken, but strong winds are expected.
“And it is expected to flow into the Gulf of Mexico.
“There is a bit more uncertainty about the trajectory after it passes over the Yucatan, but we recognize that once the hurricane is disconnected from the ocean, it will likely weaken significantly.
“If it goes back to warmer waters, it could intensify. So that’s where the uncertainty is… we don’t know yet whether it’s going to be Mexico or Texas.”
How will climate change affect future hurricanes?
“Beryl is a good example of what we can expect in the future, where a system with a lot of energy in the oceans will rapidly intensify into a Category 5 system that brings a lot of rain.
“A warmer world due to global warming doesn’t necessarily mean there will be more tropical cyclones, at least in terms of frequency.
“(But) we expect a transition to a much more powerful system, which means much stronger winds.
“Another factor is that rain associated with tropical cyclones will increase in a warmer atmosphere that can hold more moisture.”
What is their influence?
“While the classification of a hurricane depends on wind speed, the risk increases with all the hazards – rain, mudslides, flash floods – which are strongly associated. All of these will increase as well.
“Sea levels are rising. Tropical cyclones are associated with storm surges… Depending on the layout of the coast, when they make landfall they can cause catastrophic flooding.
“So, if a storm surge occurs when sea levels have already risen, it’s clear that it can cause flooding.
“We have a huge population living near the coasts of the world, so managing that coastal population is clearly going to be a problem.”
Is hurricane season getting longer?
“There is no global information on what would happen if global warming led to longer tropical cyclone seasons.
“On the other hand, there have been studies showing that the season could be extended at the local level.”
Do you have a system in place to track these cyclones?
“Tropical cyclone trajectory predictions have been significantly improved.
“There is room for improvement in intensity prediction, especially in terms of rapid intensification.
“Rapid intensification is not yet well understood in digital weather forecast models, and the scientific community is constantly researching it.”
How should vulnerable countries prepare?
“It is very important for every country to prepare for hurricanes. In other words, it is important to sensitize the public about the dangers posed by tropical cyclones and explain how to respond depending on the level of danger.
“Preparedness really means systematically educating the population in advance so they know how to act, prepare their homes, prepare their families, and know where the shelters are.”
© Agence France-Presse
