Today I wanted to take a look at explosive plays (20+ yards) and their impact on scoring so far in 2024. In this article, we’ll give you the total explosive plays and touchdowns for offense and defense and then zoom in on the explosive plays. Touchdown drive charges to date.
First, here are the total explosive plays and total touchdowns for NFL offenses through Week 3:
The Pittsburgh Steelers offense has been in the bottom left corner through three games. That means they are tied with three other teams (Denver, Miami, and New England) for the fewest total touchdowns. Compared to Pittsburgh’s undefeated record, they each have 1 win and 2 losses this season.
The positive side for Pittsburgh is that they have increased their touchdowns each game. There were no touchdowns in Week 1, one in Week 2 and two end zone trips last week. Let’s hope this upward trajectory continues as the attacks continue. It’s a good idea to stay optimistic and avoid zero buggers, especially in the scoring department.
Explosive plays have also been below league average, but are now closer to average with eight. That ranks 21st, tied with the Chiefs, Bucs, and Dolphins. Even among some quality teams, the past few seasons have been better than Pittsburgh’s offense. But there is definitely room for improvement.
We also see teams doing well in both, including the Steelers’ next opponent. The Indianapolis Colts offense has 12 explosive plays and eight touchdowns, each of which is currently tied for sixth all-time. Compared to Pittsburgh, there is a big difference in terms of game situation and lack of final victory goal (1-2 record).
Other currently undefeated teams are Buffalo, Kansas City, Seattle, and Minnesota. As you might expect, the entire group has an above-average total touchdowns, while Pittsburgh is an exception due to its outstanding defense (more on that later).
Interestingly, the 3-0 team’s explosive play has been above average to date, with four teams below league average, with Minnesota being the only team slightly above average with 10 explosives. Of course, the score is everything and I’d like to see how this plays out.
Let’s look at explosive touchdown drives in quantitative context. Here’s the ratio of explosive plays that are TD drives to explosive plays that are touchdowns:
This deep dive shows some of the teams that have made the most of explosive plays on offense. If you look at the top right, you’ll see all the undefeated teams except Pittsburgh. Seattle has the highest percentage of “explosions converted into touchdowns,” with five of seven explosive plays reaching the end zone. wow.
Of the top seven teams in explosive TD drive percentage, six have winning records. The only team with a losing record is Atlanta (one of those losses was to Pittsburgh), and one difference for the Falcons is that they are below average in explosive play touchdowns.
While the total number of explosive plays is lower and the results in terms of success are more mixed, these quality elements of explosive plays have had a very large impact on winning goals.
On the other side of the coin, the Steelers’ offense is below average on both counts. The 25 explosives used on explosive plays ranked 29th, and the 12.5 explosives used ranked 21st. So the latter helped them do just enough to make the odds of victory negligible, and they need to capitalize on more to reach the end zone following explosive plays.
The Steelers’ dominant defense was, of course, the main catalyst for their 3-0 record. Let’s take a look at how NFL defenses stack up on equal terms through Week 3.
Not surprisingly, Pittsburgh’s defense is comfortably above average for both teams. Their league-leading points allowed per game (8.7) is well-documented, and they are the only team to allow just two touchdowns through three games.
Four other undefeated teams also limited touchdowns to above-average rates, as expected, and Minnesota is the only team to fall below average in (slightly) explosive plays allowed with 10.
The Steelers have allowed six explosive plays, tied for 11th with the Seahawks. The only teams with fewer teams are Denver (4), Atlanta (5), and Cincinnati (5). All have losing records, perhaps indicative of game situations for opposing offenses that don’t require big chunks of play in this small sample size.
Now let’s wrap up the defense’s explosive play touchdown drive pace.
First off, here are some interesting results for Pittsburgh. Their better score was 33.3 explosive TD drive percentage, which ranked them sixth along with the Saints (2-1) and Giants (1-2). The teams that performed better were the Seahawks, Colts, Bills, Chargers and Vikings. Except for Indianapolis, each has a winning record. They were above average in every aspect of today’s coverage, pointing to the enormous challenge presented to Pittsburgh this Sunday despite their current standings.
The Steelers’ defense downfield allowed a touchdown on an explosive play. Of the six explosive plays allowed, one resulted in a touchdown. This makes 16.67 explosives, a tank destroyer rate, which ranks 16th on average. As the sample size grows with more games, hopefully this can improve to match the more dominant statistics so far in 2024.
We can clearly see the impact explosive plays have on team results, and the principle of quality over quantity rings very true. Of course, Pittsburgh’s defense is the hero, so it’s a good idea to be strong on at least one side of the ball. If you can go for a more average unit whose offense is paired with an impressive defense, be careful. I hope this can help us move forward.
