Tomorrow, we will read the egg price in January at the consumer level. The futures price was about $ 5.2 in December and $ 6.65 in January. The gift is $ 7.65 by February.
Figure 1: Figure 1. Top panel -consumer prices of 12 eggs (blue, left scale), January 2025 End 2024 (blue square, left scale), $ in $ Prediction. Bottom panel: 12 eggs (blue) of trading economic futures and Tradingeconomics models and analyst -based predictions (gray). Source: BLS, ERS, Tradingeconomics.com.
The USDA’s economic research service forecast in January 2025 is $ 5 by the end of 2012. This prediction is based on the time series model. Tradingeconomics forecasts based on $ 9.67/dozens of futures prices are based on predictions of monopoly macroeconomic models and analysts’ unveiled weights. However, their predictions include the prediction of judgment components such as hens that produce eggs and the prevalence of bird flu.
Can egg prices be lower until the end of 2025 than January 2025? The ERS includes a 95% confidence section forecast. I am ambiguous, but I am ambiguous (I don’t think we will not get a fast vaccine super speed due to all the cuts of the Trump administration’s medical research). The fatal recession can also lower the price. But this is almost impossible because eggs are not a high -end product, but a necessity.
Implications for grocery prices? In my opinion, I think that in 2023 CPI weight, eggs account for about 2.2%of the CPI’s home food components. The increase in egg prices in December to December 13% is 0.3 pPTS higher household CPI components.
Appendix: Bet at the price of February compared to January.
source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxeggs/egg-grice access 12:30 CT
