The US Open begins on Monday, and defending champions Coco Gauff and Novak Djokovic are both in the draw. But with so many others in the mix, including Jannik Sinner, Carlos Alcaraz, Aryna Sabalenka and Iga Swiatek, who is the favorite? We asked the experts.
Who will win the women’s singles title, and why?
Bill Connelly: It’s a weird draw. A lot of the best players are going through tough times or recovering from injuries. Sure, “not winning three tournaments in a row (10 of them)” means Swiatek is having a tough time, but seeing as she was soundly beaten by Sabalenka in the semifinals in Cincinnati, I think Sabalenka might be the one to beat.
Sabalenka beat four top-30 opponents without dropping a set, and she not only beat Swiatek 6-3, 6-3, but dominated. She created 15 break points compared to Swiatek’s six, and she broke serve in five of Swiatek’s nine service games, and while her serve wasn’t 100%, it was good enough.
Sabalenka’s draw is not an easy task, but if Madison Keys (potential fourth-round opponent) is not 100% fit, she may not be able to put up a strong test until the quarterfinals. A draw that favors a three-time semifinalist (and one-time finalist) and one of the best-conditioned of the elite? Seems like a good combination.
Tom Hamilton: Sabalenka. And this Sabalenka will be one who is on a roll after her recent physical setbacks. She lost to Mira Andreeva in the quarterfinals of Roland Garros while ill, pulled out of Wimbledon with a shoulder injury in Berlin, and withdrew from the Paris Olympics because she didn’t want to go back to clay. So Sabalenka is sprinting on hard courts, and having won the same court at the Australian Open earlier this year, she will be looking to conquer New York.
Darcy Main: Okay, sure, I agree that Sabalenka is the absolute favorite at this point, and for good reason, but I’m going with Swiatek. Clearly disappointed by her bronze medal in Paris, and likely motivated by that and her semifinal loss to Sabalenka in Cincinnati, it’s hard to think she wouldn’t be on a mission to get revenge for the past few months, and maybe even grab a No. 6 major title along the way. Her path to the final will certainly be a challenge, with Andreeva waiting in the fourth round, Pegula or Danielle Collins as likely opponents in the quarterfinals, and Elena Rybakina or her famous nemesis Jelena Ostapenko (who has won her previous four matches) in the semifinals. But Swiatek certainly looks capable. Needless to say, when Swiatek is fully focused, everyone else has to be careful. She is almost impossible to beat, and having won the title in 2022, she knows exactly what it takes to lift the trophy.
Who will win the men’s singles title, and why?
Cornelly: I think Djokovic will do it again. He’s opposite Sinner and Alcaraz. and Daniil Medvedev; It’s almost the same matchup as when he reached the final at Wimbledon on one knee. He’s had more time to recover, and after winning Olympic gold — against Alcaraz, just weeks after Alcaraz crushed him in the Wimbledon final — Djokovic is likely to play with more freedom and confidence.
This is the smoothest path Djokovic could hope for, and with Sinner looking less than 100% and Alcaraz short-circuiting his only hard-court tune-up, Djokovic might be in the best form of the best. Slam title number 25 coming?
Hamilton: Djokovic is in a great position to win his 25th Grand Slam. It is expected to come at the perfect time for a rejuvenated Djokovic, who has become the fifth player to win the Golden Slam in singles after winning the men’s singles in Paris. He has achieved one of his ultimate career goals and now the task is to extend his slam record in men’s singles. Alcaraz has been a bit out of sorts of late, was unusually shaky in Cincinnati, and Sinner has been distracted off the court.
Djokovic has won here four times before and will be looking to lift the US Open trophy again on September 8.
Main: This question is much harder to answer today than it was a few days ago. Watching Sinner beat Andrey Rublev, Alexander Zverev and Frances Tiafoe in three straight days in Cincinnati, I was confident he could win the US Open. But now that he’s faced the spotlight and questions (and the jeers and boos from the New York crowd) after testing positive for banned substances twice in March, I’m not sure what he’ll be like mentally.
If he can focus and play at the same level he did in Cincinnati, he can definitely win it all, but at this point, there’s just too much to be sure of. Instead, I’ll pick Alcaraz, who may be playing with a bit of a chip on his shoulder after the Olympics and the (short) start of the hard-court season. He’s proven how good he is in a best-of-five environment and when a major title is on the line, thanks to the energy of New York.
