The March series also indicates that open interest was reduced by 20.2%, and short positions were guaranteed with a 4.6% price increase in short terms. NIFTY’s rollovers are 76.1%, which suggests a reduction in the driving force of long -term positions, lower than the previous month’s rollover and quarterly 80.1%.
Riyank Arora, an analyst at Mehta Equities’ derivatives analysts, interacted with the ET market on the outlook for Nifty and Bank Nifty, along with the index strategy of the April series. Here is the excerpt edited in his chat:
The market is trying to show elasticity despite the global headwinds, and it is rapidly recovering from the initial loss. From the beginning of this year we have seen. What is your interpretation of this reversal and what do you tell us about fundamental feelings?
As Nifty pops up from the 5th cycle EMA and an important 100 -day moving average, I think the reversal is showing some strength in the market. Immediate support is now about 23,400 and the immediate resistance is about 23,850. The fundamental feelings now seem to switch from rising to deep purchases.
We saw Nifty fried 100-drugs on Thursday and formed green candles. Technically, how important this level is, can this be a setting for another leg of the rally?
Technically, the 23,400 level is an important support mark for traders to watch other legs of the rally. If we do this much higher, we can expect that the rally will expand to 23,800 and 24,000 odd levels. However, the rest below can cause some pain to 23,300 and 23,100 marks.
What did you read about INDIA VIX? And does this sign in the comfort or snacks of the market in global uncertainty?
I think volatility is falling because the India Vix is about 12.7 away, and we see you returning from a slightly low level. However, if you have tariff -related news or global uncertainty in the future, the volatility index may increase. But yes. For the time being, we are trading with stable notes.
Trump’s 25% car import tariff announcement has created a ripple effect worldwide. How serious is this threat in Indian stocks, especially in trade -sensitive sectors such as AUTO and Pharma?
The impact of the 25% car import tariff was expected to be negative in the trade ethnic sectors, such as automobiles and pharmaceuticals. But I think that technically, the two sector indexes are being traded in important support marks. In the case of Nifty Auto Index, the important support is 21,200 marks and the NIFTY Pharma Index is 21,000 marks. If these levels are destroyed, you can see that they sell pressure at the index, but the powerful suspension above indicates that the risk reward is advantageous to the bull.
Strong foreign funds are leading optimism. Do you believe that FII is returning to conviction, or is there more tactical play than the import season?
If the FII data of the cash segment is 2,000 cross to the net buyer, we believe that this inflow is actually optimistic. Revenue is a guilty judgment, signaling good purchases at a low level and thinking that it is optimistic throughout India. As I said based on technology, I think 23,000 is a big support, and if it is well maintained, we are preparing for more than 24,000 rally.
What is the role of domestic investors (DIIS and retail) that support the market through recent volatility phases? Will they come in when the piece retreats back?
As the FII retreats, we believe that domestic investors are on the positive side. As you know, we have witnessed the overall sales pressure in mid cap and small stocks. At a low level, the FII is trying to support the market, and we expect that our emotions will change and domestic investors will enjoy rally.
The energy and real estate sectors have excellent performance and cars and constraints have been delayed. Are we looking at the turn of clear category? Or is this more reaction to global development?
With 25%of automatic import tariffs, automobiles and constraints are inferior, and the two most sensitive sectors are delayed. I seem to be supported by most of the indexes in each category, which is supported by the 5,9 and 21 index moving average, which is a relatively positive signal and it is expected to head to higher. Compared to the sluggishness of automobiles and pharmaceuticals, the performance of energy and real estate is a sign of news -related movements due to tariff presentation and global development.
TATA MOTORS was pressured by JLR exposure to the US market. How do long -term investors look at it?
Technically, I think that stocks have immediate support from the RS 660 mark and have immediate resistance around the RS 690 level. We believe that stock trading is less than an important moving average, and we can be integrated to the side of the stock price. The RS 660-690 RS 700 is a big obstacle at the top. Investors should see TATA MOTORS from a long -term investment point of view and focus on buying all dip here.
BSE has soared to NSE’s plan to postpone expiration date from Monday. Do you think this will continue to support stock momentum, or is the price already set?
I think BSE’s strong momentum shows the overall strength of the stock, and we expect that the 5900-6000 odd goal should be entered as the rally develops further. While stocks are much higher than the average moving average and the rapid surge in quantity, we must eventually be strong toward the new all -time high.
Where can I see a significant OI accumulation in stocks? What does F & O data tell me about where the trader is located?
In terms of buyer’s point of view, traders focus on stocks such as ONGC, NHPC, SAIL, NYKAA, and Union Bank. But in short sales, IDE, IDFC first, ZOMATO and IOC indicate the negative momentum of the stock price according to OI data analysis.
At the expiration date, there was a noticeable conflict in the early days. How did the derivatives market handle expiration and what signals can you get on the April series positioning?
As expected in April, I think the expiration was correct in the integrated range between 23,400 and 23,650. As volatility is absorbed and Indian VIX transactions are lower, we will see a good direction that holds the important moving average from above. Two support to be careful are 23,400 and 23,000 at important levels, 23,800 and 24,000 in higher aspects. The trend must be maintained positively.
What is the extensive F & O strategy in the future? Are we looking at the long rollovers in the main sectors and the short build up?
In the sectors such as FMCG, Consumer Vurable, and Energy Index, a good rollover is appearing, but the short accumulation is especially prominent in the same sectors such as NIFTY MEDIA Index and IT stocks. So we must be ideal for the negative side of it in April.
In the case of Nifty and Bank Nifty, what is the level of resistance and support that can be seen in the short term and what is your preferred trading strategy?
For nifty, I think 23,400 is a key level. 23,200 and 23,000 are two major support markets. In higher aspects, 23,800 and 24,000 appear to be major resistance levels. Similarly, in the case of Bank Nifty, 51,000 are immediate support and 52,000 are immediate resistance. The main support is 50,000, and the preferred trading strategy at the current level is to focus on buying deep. Nifty’s 100-200 points reduction and banks’ 400-500 points will be a good time in the future in April.
Midcaps and SmallCaps have been strong again. Do you think that a wider market is restoring leadership, or if it is given a risk of evaluation and liquidity, should it still be superior?
As I buy most of the stocks, the MIDCAP and SmallCap indexes are traded above an important moving average and indicate good force. If the index exceeds the index moving average over 5,9 and 21 periods, and is strong, you can see that the upward relationship is good at the current level. Technically, I think that a wider market is restoring leadership, and the purchase should be resumed here, and the two indexes should be higher with the overall market trend and direction.
(Exemptions: Recommendations, proposals, views, and opinions provided by experts are itself.
