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Eric Karabel, ESPN Senior Writer
The Carolina Panthers selected QB Bryce Young with the No. 1 pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, but the organization didn’t put the Alabama star in the best position to succeed initially, at least statistically. After going 7-10 in 2022, the Panthers figured it was a good idea to rely on former Philadelphia Eagles RB Miles Sanders, and the receiving corps lacked depth beyond 33-year-old former Minnesota Vikings WR Adam Thielen. The Panthers averaged 13.9 points per game, won just twice, and their famous quarterback struggled.
The Chicago Bears have been relatively happy to watch this drama unfold, as they acquired Carolina’s No. 1 overall pick in the deal that brought Young to the Panthers. The Bears have QB Caleb Williams as the No. 1 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, putting the organization in a pretty strong position for the USC star to succeed.
Running back D’Andre Swift is another former Eagle, but he has a different skill set that doesn’t require the best offensive line in the sport, and he strengthens the team’s position by retaining Roschon Johnson and Khalil Herbert. Former Los Angeles Chargers WR star Keenan Allen, a six-time Pro Bowl selection, joins standout DJ Moore and intriguing first-round pick Rome Odunze. Cole Kmet is a productive tight end.
Despite each franchise’s reliance on a No. 1 QB, the 2024 Bears are nothing like the 2023 Panthers. That’s for sure. In fact, the 2024 Bears are nothing like the Bears teams of the past. This franchise was born long before Tom Brady. No Bears quarterback has ever thrown for 4,000 yards (the only NFL franchise to do so) or thrown for 30 touchdowns. Imagine that! In this unique case, causation may be as good as correlation. Only one Bears player has ever received 1,000 yards in a season. Only Jerry Rice has done it more often. Allen has done it six times!
That doesn’t mean the 2022 Heisman Trophy winner Williams is guaranteed historic numbers and fantasy dominance in his debut season, but with such incredible talent surrounding him, it’s hard to imagine Williams failing. Sure, there’s plenty of pressure, but Williams can let his playmakers do the proverbial heavy lifting, and that’s exactly what they should do. Give them the football and this offense will thrive. Oh, what Chargers QB Justin Herbert could do for this team!
The big question for fantasy managers is whether Williams can find immediate statistical success and even grow enough to become a QB1.
Well, it certainly sounds plausible, and fantasy managers should keep that possibility in mind for their rookies, as they are often the ones who break the hearts of fans.
Fantasy managers can certainly win the league by investing quickly in Kansas City Chiefs star Patrick Mahomes, Eagles star Jelen Hurts, and Buffalo Bills star Josh Allen. These players have proven to be statistical monsters, were selected in the early rounds, and are likely to be successful again. Of course, early QB picks are made at the expense of available running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends. Fantasy managers can win the league by ignoring the best passers in the early draft rounds and focusing on running backs and wide receivers (flex-eligible picks) because the depth depletes more quickly. There is no one way to win the league.
Rookies are inherently risky for fantasy managers and NFL coaches to rely on at any position, but Williams offers a certain pedigree that most young passers can’t match. For example, don’t compare him to former Bears first-round pick QB Justin Fields, who is currently hoping to play for the Pittsburgh Steelers. They are different players with different skill sets. Fields is a valuable running option. Williams has a great arm, and he has the speed and accuracy to pass short and down the field in the pocket and on the move. He’s mobile, coachable, and shouldn’t be overpowered at the NFL level. He also has far better options around him than Fields.
Some fantasy managers might be reluctant to invest in Williams, citing Young’s struggles in recent memory, but 2023 No. 2 overall pick C.J. Stroud had no such issues. The Houston Texans have had little shortage of playmakers, with WRs Nico Collins and Tank Dell helping TE Dalton Schultz and RB Devin Singletary. Would you take Swift, Allen, Moore, Odunze and Kmet, who caught 73 passes and six touchdowns from that group or Fields and Tyson Bagent? Moore and Kmet caught 169 passes. The rest of the roster caught 152. Stroud finished as QB1. Williams can do it too, but no one should expect it.
New Bears offensive coordinator Shane Waldron is a smart, lucky guy who can build an exciting, talented offense. Bears fans will take competence at this point. Allen caught 108 passes last season. O’Dunnes caught 92 footballs for Washington, scoring 14 touchdowns. Moore, Swift and Kmet are very talented. Waldron will have Williams ready to lead this offense. We’ll just have to wonder what Young will do.
Some of this, admittedly, depends on each manager’s fantasy league structure and strategy. In ESPN’s standard 10-team format, a manager who invests in one of the top quarterbacks should certainly be more willing to take a risk if he’s picking a second quarterback. Williams and Washington Commanders rookie QB Jaden Daniels (the second overall pick) both scream potential as athletic playmakers. A Mahomes manager probably won’t need a backup QB until the bye week, but it’s certainly a riskier option than going the typical Aaron Rodgers/Kirk Cousins route.
Carolina’s Young should be a solid NFL quarterback, and we can’t blame all his rookie issues on his teammates. Young completed 59.8 percent of his passes for less than 200 yards per game. He threw 11 touchdown passes and 10 interceptions. Williams will surpass those numbers, no one thinks otherwise. Whether Williams is in the Rodgers/Cousins tier over proven veterans like the Chargers’ Herbert, the Jaguars’ Trevor Lawrence and the San Francisco 49ers’ Brock Purdy is another matter. We know those quarterbacks. There were injuries, statistical setbacks, etc. We don’t know Williams… definitely not.
Ultimately, Williams has yet to fail at the NFL level, and some fantasy managers have been tempted to take notice of his rare skill set and his excellent support staff. That may not be reflected in his current ADP numbers, because so many others don’t want to be part of a rookie passer. Keep an open mind. There are at least 10 NFL quarterbacks ready to lead fantasy rosters, and Williams could be one of them.
