loss
In addition to climate change, many in Kazakhstan place some of the blame on Russia’s actions. “Another major reason is that Russia is building infrastructure in the Ural and Volga rivers and retaining water there,” Arman Khairullin said.
Most of the Volga and Ural rivers, which supply 80% of the fresh water entering the Caspian Sea, lie within Russia’s borders. Large reservoirs primarily support agricultural and energy needs, while also serving as the main source of drinking water for Russian cities.
In the spring of 2024, dramatic flooding occurred in the Ural basin, and in the summer of the previous year, water levels were so low that Atyrau residents could cross the river on foot and boats were stranded on the river banks.
Laura Malikova, President of the Kazakh Association of Ecologists, said: “As far as the Urals and Volga are concerned, despite the willingness of the Russian side to discuss the issue, they are simply following their own national interests.
“They don’t want to suffer economic losses by releasing more water into Kazakhstan.”
cooperation
Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Russia, Iran, and Turkmenistan border the Caspian Sea. All five countries are signatories to the Tehran Agreement, which was formally adopted in 2003. The Convention serves as a key institutional framework to promote environmental protection in the Caspian Sea region.
The five countries adopted several protocols, including two that address pollution and one that focuses on wildlife conservation. However, these agreements still ignore the problem of sea level decline.
Authorities have long taken a passive stance, with some scientific reports suggesting the Caspian Sea’s fluctuations are part of a natural cycle of rise and fall.
However, in recent years, a more proactive approach has been adopted as key economic activities face increasingly greater threats. The state of the Caspian Sea was the focus of the COP29 summit in Baku, the capital of Azerbaijan and the largest city on the Caspian Sea coast. Azerbaijan has aimed to develop a regional plan to address this problem, but this plan yet It will be revealed.
UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen said: explanation COP29 described the situation as “a crisis that could destroy ecosystems and species, threaten livelihoods, and jeopardize food security and stability across the region.” She called for “bold action” and greater regional cooperation.
sudden drop
One of the most notable consequences may be mass migration. This is because many coastal communities risk losing their livelihoods as fishermen and farmers. According to Inger Andersen, the environmental crisis could lead to the displacement of up to 5 million people by the middle of this century.
Damba is a large fishing village near Atyrau that has become a residential suburb. Mr. Mayrambek (28), who lives in Damba, said, “I sometimes fish, but mostly I drive a taxi. The older generation still goes to the sea out of nostalgia, but the younger generation rarely does it due to lack of supplies.” fish.”
Declining fish populations have affected communities such as Damba and Zhanbay. Zhanbay Mayor Didar Yesmoukhanov said: “We ate a lot of fish and caviar. Now there is no water and no fish.”
The official fishing season in Zhanbay lasts several months in spring and autumn and currently focuses mainly on carp. Low standards of living lead many people to illegally catch sturgeon despite low catches. Yesmoukhanov added: “Now sturgeon fishing is illegal and the fines are high. We used to eat sturgeon all the time and we miss it.”
In addition to sturgeon, other fish species are also threatened. Catfish and pike are disappearing in Kazakhstan, prompting authorities to impose a temporary fishing ban to protect remaining populations. In Russia, bream catches have decreased tenfold over the past 85 years, and cockroach populations have also declined sharply.
health
In western Kazakhstan, areas where the sea has recently receded are nothing but barren, endless stretches of sand. This has made seasonal sandstorms worse.
For coastal communities, ocean retreat has become an urgent public health issue. Jana Zhanbay is located 25 km west of Zhanbay along the railway to Russia.
Resident Asel Sheruyenova said: “Sandstorms occur often in the summer. Sometimes they are so intense that you cannot even see the garden. I have developed an allergy to dust. It is a difficult season for me.”
In villages like Jana Zhanbay, farming faces challenges as there are very few fruits and vegetables to grow. “The climate is very dry and it is getting hotter, which is why people here are more involved in camel farming,” said Ibragim Bozakhaev, an elderly resident.
Ibragim Bozakhaev owns several cows and camels. Animal health is also affected by declining sea levels. He added, “The dust carried as the sea retreats contains salt and is extremely harmful to animals.”
tragedy
For many observers, the fate of the Caspian Sea is reminiscent of the Aral Sea, located on the border of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. Once the fourth largest lake in the world, it has shrunk dramatically since a Soviet-era irrigation project redirected the river. In the 2000s, 90% of its water was lost, turning it into a desert.
The local government of Atyrau has been continuously dredging the river mouth to allow boats to reach the open sea and for fish to migrate upstream.
A young employee from the Atyrau municipality involved in the project said: “Every year we dig, the sea keeps moving further away. I think we’re chasing that.” Officials fear the Caspian Sea will become the next Aral Sea.
Efforts to revive the Aral Sea included the construction of the Cork-Aral Dam, which was completed in 2005. The project has partially restored water levels in the North Aral Sea, which now covers less than 5% of the original Aral Sea.
It also boosted fish populations and boosted the local economy. However, the South Aral Sea remains largely unrecoverable due to severe desertification and limited water inflow.
bottleneck
The clock may also be ticking to find a solution for the Caspian Sea. In November 2022, Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev described the problem as “serious” in a speech and initiated the creation of a research institute dedicated to Caspian Sea research.
The government officially approved this project in January last year, but the research center has not yet been established.
The Caspian Sea countries are all allies of Russia, but the geopolitical situation is preventing a resolution of the crisis. Moscow is prioritizing economic needs to sustain Ukraine’s war effort and is using the water dispute to pressure neighboring countries such as Kazakhstan to adopt a more supportive stance.
Laura Malikova, President of the Kazakh Association of Ecologists, said: “When it comes to water resources, there should be no politicization. “There should be no condition on Kazakhstan giving us more water if it supports Russia in the war in Ukraine.”
The five Caspian Sea countries are scheduled to meet again next year at the Tehran Convention COP7, where the issue of reducing sea levels is expected to be a central issue.
This author
Clément Girardot is a freelance journalist who writes in-depth international articles, focusing primarily on Türkiye and the Caucasus region. His article was published in . mad, guardianAl Jazeera, Le Monde Magazine and Ecologist. Natalia Paramonova and Vladimir Sevrinovsky contributed reporting from Russia. This article was written with support from Journalismfund Europe. This article was funded in part through the Ecologist Writers’ Fund. We’re asking our readers to donate so we can pay some writers £200 for their work. please Donate Now. More information about the fund and application can be found on our website.
