There is no tariff yet in Canada, Mexico (and EU for that problem). Nevertheless, 10%of the $ 427 income (above the previous tariff) is a big problem.
reference : Tax hikes raised by China’s Trump tariff assuming that the single price elasticity of import demand (TAR) is assumed. ACA revenue estimates as of 2012. With a number of legislative changes, the 2016 CBO estimates are $ 2.4 billion (Dark Red Bar). source: Graphic FACTCHECK (2012)Fixed by the author. CBO (Table 1).
In 2023, the United States imported $ 42.7 billion worth of products (product imports are mostly imported from China). Assuming unit elasticity for 10% tariffs, imports $ 384 BN. Each tariff income is $ 42.7 bn or $ 38.4 bn. This is the amount of tax imports, regardless of what China’s exchange rate or gate price occurs (if you don’t understand this point, it’s a difference between the tax incidence and the formula).
Whether China’s tariffs make up the third or fourth largest tax increase in 2025 depend on how the ACA revenue estimates proceed after various legislative changes.
combination two In 2018-2019, 232 and 301 trillion tariffs amounted to $ 80 billion. [Tax Foundation]Therefore, taxes on imported products from China are still the largest tariff imports of one year.
How well does my estimation of $ 3.8 billion fits other estimates? that Tax foundation The $ 2 billion revenue estimates have been announced for the remaining seven months in the 2025 fiscal year, or for 34 BN/34 BNs.
Trump says the EU is on the cross line. [NYT].
tariff Trump said, “It will definitely happen in the European Union.” Bbc Sunday evening, they are coming soon.
The 2023 import value of the EU is as follows:
source: Altruism.
Not only is it bigger than Canada or Mexico (for goods), but also a different character with a much more characteristic of trade in the industry. You can think that demand elasticity is lower.
