After the Giants reviewed all the hits and misses on first-round quarterbacks over the previous 10 NFL drafts, head coach Brian Daboll reached a conclusion.
“We’re taking Stroud,” Daboll quipped to a room filled with the Giants’ key decision-makers during a March meeting, as later revealed on “Hard Knocks.”
If only it were as simple as using hindsight.
Daboll’s joke, of course, is that the Giants were one year too late to get C.J. Stroud, who had arguably the greatest NFL rookie quarterback season ever for the Texans in 2023. Meanwhile, the only player drafted before Stroud — the Panthers’ Bryce Young — had one of the worst rookie quarterback seasons ever for a No. 1 overall pick.
In a span of about six hours Saturday, New York football fans will be reminded of the perils of the make-or-break decision that likely is returning to town soon: The Giants will visit Stroud and the Texans in a 1 p.m. matinee before the Jets visit Young and the Panthers in a 7 p.m. nightcap during Week 2 of the preseason.
The Texans enter the 2024 season as a dark horse Super Bowl contender largely because Stroud cemented himself as a franchise quarterback and the front office seized the moment to capitalize on his cost-controlled contract by building up the roster. The Texans traded for six-time 1,000-yard receiver Stefon Diggs and signed premier pass rusher Danielle Hunter as part of a $144.5 million spending spree over the first three weeks of free agency.
The Panthers have the second-worst odds in the NFL to win the Super Bowl and are starting from scratch in 2024: Scott Fitterer, the general manager who selected Young over Stroud, and head coach Frank Reich, who lasted less than one full season on the job amid Young’s underdevelopment, were fired.
The rebuild included general manager Dan Morgan — who was part of the decision to select Young — hiring head coach Dave Canales and trading top asset Brian Burns to the Giants for what amounted to second- and fifth-round picks.
Though there still is plenty of time for Young to rewrite his story, the Young-Stroud pre-draft debate from 16 months ago is the latest chapter in a cautionary tale.
The Giants, who tried to no avail to trade up to the No. 3 pick in the 2024 draft to select quarterback Drake Maye (Patriots) or Jayden Daniels (Commanders), could be in a less-flexible must-draft-a-quarterback mode in 2025.
Unless Daniel Jones recaptures his best form this season, the Giants could cut him for a reasonable $22.2 million dead salary-cap charge (it goes up to $45.2 million if Jones is injured and can’t pass a physical at the time) and turn their attention to selecting Georgia’s Carson Beck, Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders, Texas’ Quinn Ewers or a rising star of the fall.
The downside of that strategy is it either requires a dreadful season that results in earning the No. 1 or No. 2 overall pick, or mortgaging the future to trade up into one of those spots from whatever draft position comes out of a mediocre season (7-10, for example).
Part of the reason that the Panthers’ decision to draft Young looks like an all-time disaster is they traded a future first-round pick that became the No. 1 overall pick in 2024 and was used by the Bears on superior quarterback prospect Caleb Williams.
It’s certainly not where the Giants expected to be when signing Jones to a four-year, $160 million extension in March 2022, on the heels of a return to the playoffs. The Giants were picking No. 25 entering the 2023 draft and never had a serious chance at either Stroud or Young.
And it might not be that long until the Jets — who blew the No. 3 pick in 2018 on Sam Darnold and the No. 2 pick in 2021 on Zach Wilson — are faced with the decision again. One way or another.
For all the Super Bowl chatter entering their season, the Jets have the NFL’s oldest quarterback tandem, with 40-year-old Aaron Rodgers backed up by 35-year-old Tyrod Taylor.
If Rodgers plays well, perhaps the Jets can put off the future of the position for another year or two, but there is a disastrous scenario that exists somewhere in the multiverse where Rodgers plays like other 40-year-old quarterbacks not named Tom Brady have — or, worse, is seriously injured again — and a restart in 2025 is required.
For now, Giants and Jets fans should plan to enjoy the season. Get through September at least before worrying about which quarterback might be available at which spot in the 2025 draft.
But you ultimately might end up thinking back to a Saturday in August and the two directions a franchise can go when it has to select a quarterback atop the draft.
Today’s back page
The semantics of Aaron Judge
If you’ve ever seen a kindergartner run, you know that there are times when “young” and “quick” both apply.
Aaron Judge’s home run chase is not one of those times. Not when he is the 51st-youngest player in MLB history to reach 300 career home runs (out of the 162 to do so), according to Elias Sports Bureau.
The Yankees’ slugger was rightfully celebrated Wednesday for becoming the quickest player in MLB history to reach 300 career home runs after he lined the milestone shot over the left-field fence in Chicago.
Judge needed just 955 career games to get to 300 homers, which is nearly a full season faster than anyone else ever: Ralph Kiner needed 1,087 games, Ryan Howard 1,093, Juan Gonzalez 1,096 and Alex Rodriguez 1,117.
But logic says to hold off on prematurely crowning Judge as a future member of the 500-, 600- or (gasp!) 700 Home Run Club.
Because he spent three years at Fresno State and nearly three full seasons in the minor leagues, Judge was 24 years old when he debuted in Aug. 2016.
Because he has missed significant chunks of time to injuries during the 2018, 2019 and 2023 seasons and because the 2020 season was shortened by COVID-19, Judge has missed too many games in his prime to be considered a real threat to challenge for career home run records.
Interestingly, none of the other three “quickest” in terms of games ended up reaching even 450 home runs: Kiner finished at 369, Howard 382 and Gonzalez 434.
Rodriguez (27 years, 249 days) is the youngest player ever to reach 300 home runs, and Andruw Jones was the youngest to do so entirely in the National League (28 years, 144 days).
What do they have in common? Both debuted as teenagers.
Judge, 32, currently ranks No. 2 all-time in at-bats per home run (11.44) and is homering about every 3.2 games for his career. At that rate, Judge needs only about four full seasons to get to 500 home runs and six full seasons to get to 600.
Except that maintaining his home run pace from his 20s/early 30s is unlikely to stretch deep into his 30s. Just as unlikely is the prospect of Judge playing full seasons as his 6-foot-7 body begins to break down with the stress of its size and the responsibility of patrolling center field until the Yankees ultimately decide that either first base or designated hitter is in his bat-preserving future.
Judge is under contract with the Yankees until he is 39 years old. Since Barry Bonds’ juiced career ended, the most home runs hit by a player between ages 33 and 39 belongs to Nelson Cruz (260), according to MLB.com.
If Judge were to finish this season with 311 career home runs — as a FanGraphs model projects — and then match Cruz’s historic output, he would enter his 40s with a comfortable 571 — good for No. 13 all-time.
In an era of less-sophisticated sports science, another large slugger with a better injury track record than Judge, Dave Winfield, hit 59 total home runs over four seasons in his 40s.
There’s no telling what lies ahead for Judge. But, for now, teams might want to stop intentionally walking Juan Soto to face him.
The scoreboard
A’s 7, Mets 6: The Amazin’s have been mediocre, The Post’s Mike Puma says after they fell to 13-13 since the All-Star break (with a two-game wild-card deficit) with this dreary matinee loss. Backed by Mark Vientos, the Mets took an early 5-0 lead, but Jose Quintana and a parade of relievers just … Kept. Walking. Everybody.
Liberty 103, Sparks 68: Breanna Stewart had 27 points on 15 shots in 20 minutes and Sabrina Ionescu added 18 points in 23 minutes as the Liberty’s Paris Olympics gold medalists paced a blowout win on national TV in their return to WNBA action. “Jet lag doesn’t affect me, I’m good,” Stewart said.
Clear your calendars
You really can appreciate the Knicks’ philosophy of laughing in the face of load management on days like Thursday, when the 2024-25 NBA schedule was released.
Imagine trying to pick six games to watch out of 82 on the schedule for teams such as the Clippers, Lakers or 76ers — not knowing if stars Kawhi Leonard, Anthony Davis and Joel Embiid are going to need a “rest” that day.
Of course, injuries can happen, but a healthy Knicks team with championship aspirations will be a must-see on many nights of the regular season.
For those who can’t watch all 82 games, here are the six most compelling that are worth clearing your calendar for.
Oct. 22 at Celtics: How perfect is this for the regular-season opener? Don’t miss Mikal Bridges’ debut and the first look at the new four-headed ‘Nova Knicks with Bridges added to college teammates Jalen Brunson, Donte DiVincenzo and Josh Hart. It’s also an immediate measuring stick for the Knicks to face the defending NBA champions and the only Eastern Conference team that finished with a better record last season.
Oct. 25 vs. Pacers: Two games, two must-sees. The Knicks’ home opener is against the Pacers, who won Game 7 of the Eastern Conference semifinals in the most recent NBA game played at Madison Square Garden. Of course, those Knicks were an injury-riddled version whose death knell was Brunson’s broken left hand. Let’s see what happens if both teams are at full strength. There will be a playoff intensity in the arena.
Nov. 12 at 76ers: The newly self-described “most-hated guy in the league,” Joel Embiid, has a new sidekick in Paul George, who was the Sixers’ reactionary addition after losing a first-round playoff series to the Knicks. Embiid played dirty in that series, but the Knicks still won a decisive Game 6 in Philadelphia. For the ‘Nova Knicks, playing in Philadelphia feels more like a homecoming than entering enemy territory.
Dec. 25 vs. Spurs: The noon tip-off comes an hour before the Steelers-Chiefs kickoff, when the NFL tries to steal away Christmas Day eyeballs. There is no much-hyped rookie making his first trip to MSG this season. Instead, reigning unanimous Rookie of the Year Victor Wembanyama returns with the otherwise-hapless Spurs (20-62 in 2023-24) after scoring just 14 points in his first game under the bright lights.
Jan. 10 vs. Thunder: DidIsaiah Hartenstein make the right call leaving the Knicks, where he was playing at a career-best level late last season? Ex-teammates won’t begrudge him for inking a three-year, $87 million contract that the Knicks could not match. The Thunder are going with a dual 7-footer approach, pairing Hartenstein with Chet Holmgren as rim protectors with contrasting offensive skill sets. This will be the second meeting in a week’s time between the teams.
March 15 at Warriors: The last leg of a five-game West Coast trip — in the middle of a stretch when the Knicks play nine out of 11 games on the road — will be nationally televised on ABC on a Saturday night. The Warriors’ dynasty appears to be over, but Steph Curry just reminded everyone how fun he still is to watch with his gold medal-winning performance, and there is no doubt he will bring his A-game to that stage.
What can’t he do?
Ever since the Minnesota Twins honored retired Hall of Famer Joe Mauer in 2023 by bringing out the only player who ever struck him out as a high school baseball star, I’ve wondered what becomes of the rivals and teammates that professional greats had during their earliest days.
That brings me to “Mr. Throwback,” the mocumentary-style comedy available on Peacock.
Steph Curry — previously seen on “Holey Moley” — plays a fictionalized version of himself, and actor Adam Pally plays an old friend who reunites with Curry under false pretenses.
Once upon a time, Pally’s character was the star of their sixth-grade basketball team and Curry was his backup … until a Danny Almonte-style scandal rocked his life.
Curry’s naivety strikes a funny note that allows him to hold his own in scenes with Pally and “Saturday Night Live” star Ego Nwodim. It’s only six episodes and the perfect breezy summer filler, well-timed by NBC coming off the Olympics.
No one is being put to sleep here, Steph. Strong recommendation.
Prospect of the day
Yankees infielder Roderick Arias continued his strong week, going 2-for-5 with a homer and two RBIs on Thursday in Single-A Tampa’s win.
Arias’s 414-foot blast in the fifth inning was his ninth long ball of the season. Though the 19-year-old has taken his lumps this year, he is now tied for the Florida State League lead in RBIs (59).
— Andrew Battifarano
What we’re reading 👀
⚾ In his weekly MLB notes, The Post’s Jon Heyman looks at Juan Soto’s free agency: How much money he’ll get (the expert estimates averaged more than $500 million, aka “a lot of cake”) and where he’ll land (the Yankees are favorites, followed by the Mets).
🏈 Jets wide receiver Garrett Wilson is having an excellent training camp and loving the plays he’s able to make with Aaron Rodgers as his QB.
🏀 We have Nets schedule takeaways, too.
⚾ Staten Island will try to stave off Little League World Series elimination on Saturday after dropping their opener.
📺 Robert Griffin III and Sam Ponder were fired from ESPN’s NFL coverage. It’s Jason Kelce’s show now.
⚽ Good luck, Mauricio Pochettino. All you have to do is get the USMNT to live up to heightened 2026 World Cup expectations.
🤸♀️ Jordan Chiles addressed the “unjust” loss of her bronze medal.
⚾ What if MLB required starting pitchers to go at least six innings?
