CARACAS, Nov 13 (IPS) – Latin America and the Caribbean is a good performer in renewable energy but a poor student in energy efficiency and has a long way to go in contributing to global climate action and overcoming the vulnerabilities of its populations. And the economy.
Recent energy crises in Ecuador and Cuba have resulted in power outages ranging from 14 hours a day to several days, while the drought that has hit Bogota and the Brazilian Amazon this year has threatened the hydroelectric systems that provide electricity. The region proves this.
Of the 660 million Latin Americans and Caribbean people enduring the diverse impacts of climate change, at least 17 million people, or approximately 4 million households, still do not have access to electricity.
This scenario will come under new scrutiny at the 29th session of the Conference of the Parties (COP29) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), which began its two-week session on Monday in Baku, the capital of oil-rich Azerbaijan.
The annual meeting of 196 parties has made climate action financing a key topic and will also look at global commitments to triple renewable energy capacity and double energy efficiency.
COP28 in Dubai proposed a global installed energy capacity of 11,000 gigawatts (Gw, equivalent to 1,000 megawatts, Mw) from renewable energy sources by 2030, 7,000 Gw more than today. According to Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC), this is unlikely.
NDCs are commitments by countries to adopt measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to ensure that global warming does not exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial average, as outlined in the 2015 Paris Agreement that concluded COP21.
In Latin America and the Caribbean, “power generation capacity is already 58% renewables, and in 11 countries it exceeds 80%,” says Uruguayan expert Alfonso Blanco, director of energy transition and climate in Washington. think tank Inter-American Dialogue told IPS.
According to Latin American Energy Agency According to (Olade), the installed power generation capacity in the region was 480,605 megawatts (MW) in 2022, with approximately 300,000 MW coming from renewable sources (200,000 MW from dams) and the remainder from non-renewable sources (mainly fossil fuels). Produced in .
that International Renewable Energy Agency (Irena) put the region’s installed capacity at 342,000 MW last year, with the development of solar energy facilities reaching a capacity of 64,513 MW, wind power reaching 49,337 MW and hydropower sources remaining stable at 202,000 MW. .
Blanco, who served as Olade’s secretary-general from 2017 to 2023, said the Latin America and Caribbean region “can increase its capacity to generate electricity from sources such as solar or wind, but it cannot triple its hydropower capacity.”
Diana Barba, energy diplomacy coordinator at Colombian think tank TransformaIt also believes that “tripling renewable energy capacity by 2030 does not apply to Latin America and the Caribbean.”
“The next step is to maintain the ratio until 2040 and generally reduce the trend of fossil fuel use,” Barba told IPS.
Elusive Efficiency
While the region’s green energy capacity figures are improving every year, energy efficiency figures are not keeping pace. experts say Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) showed that only the Caribbean sub-region has made significant progress compared to the first decade of this century.
Measured in kilograms of oil equivalent (kgoe) per $1,000 of gross domestic product (GDP), the Caribbean consumed 110 kgoe between 2001 and 2010 and reduced that spending to 67 kgoe by 2022. Meanwhile, the region as a whole declined from 95 kg. Up to 87kgoe.
During that period, the Andean subregion decreased from 108 kgoe to 90 kgoe, Central America and Mexico decreased from 85 kgoe to 70 kgoe, and the Southern Cone remained at 90 kgoe, but excluding Brazil, it decreased to 80 kgoe.
Efficiency, with more modest results in the region, is fundamental to conserving resources, reducing costs, and reducing carbon emissions that pollute the environment, heat the atmosphere, and drive climate change, which are key goals of the Climate COP.
In this regard, world economic forumThe conference, which brings together political and economic leaders every year to advocate for electric transportation and, above all, emphasizes that NDCs should focus on supply and demand to improve industrial energy efficiency, was mentioned in only 30% of NDCs worldwide.
In the transport sector, Olade’s research highlights that the number of electric light vehicles will increase more than 14-fold in the region between 2020 and 2024, reaching a total of 249,079 units in circulation by the first half of 2024.
Brazil leads the market with 152,493 vehicles, followed by Mexico, Costa Rica, Colombia and Chile, accompanied by increased energy efficiency and rapid reductions in carbon emissions. However, Costa Rica has the highest per capita figures, with 34 electric vehicles per 10,000. Uruguay followed with 17 people.
But for manufacturing, which has an annual GDP of $874 billion (14% of regional GDP), ECLAC records that each year it consumes more renewable energy and less fossil fuels such as residual fuel oil.
However, energy intensity, an indicator measuring the ratio of energy consumption to GDP, increased from 232 tons of oil equivalent per million dollars of value added in the 1990s to 238 TOE in 2022. This suggests that the region’s industrial sector has not made energy improvements. efficiency.
4 South Americans
To assess the necessary and possible efforts of each country to contribute to global renewable energy capacity targets, Transforma studied four cases: Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Colombia.
Barba explained that Argentina and Brazil are being considered for membership in the G20 (Group of 20 industrialized and emerging economies), Colombia for its capacity to act and Chile for its decision to accelerate the end of thermal power plant operations, but insufficient information is available. I received it from Mexico.
Argentina can tap into its onshore wind energy potential and large-scale solar energy, but Barba argues that it would be “very difficult” to triple its energy matrix, which is just 37% renewable, in a few years. Current president Javier Milei is “betting on fossil fuels.”
Brazil can tap into its massive renewable energy potential, but Barba points to “contradictory signals” with regard to the NDC by favoring hydrocarbon exploration and development in the Amazon “instead of sending a very clear signal to end these projects in strategic ecosystems.”
Chile can reach 96% of renewable generation in its power matrix by 2030 by leveraging resources such as solar, wind, thermal and geothermal, while Colombia can achieve a significant reduction in installed power capacity if it continues to increase solar and wind energy installations. Renewable energy could reach 80%. .
Among the countries analyzed, Chile is the only one with a specific target of a 10% reduction in energy intensity established in its National Energy Efficiency Plan 2022-2026, and Transforma proposes that other countries adopt similar targets in their 2030 plans.
On the other hand, energy efficiency is required considering that unused energy is the ‘first fuel’, the most cost-effective energy source, and is the cleanest energy.
financial problems
“The financing issue is all-encompassing. Without secure financing, you can talk about a lot of things, but in the end it is very difficult to achieve your goals,” said Giovanni Pabón, Transforma’s director of energy. We demand “in the Paris Agreement.”
Blanco emphasizes that countries in the region are “heavily influenced by existing barriers to investment ecosystems, access to financing, due to institutional issues, policies or legal security” in addressing the transition to green energy.
“Overcoming those barriers is not impossible, but it requires effort and political will, which is often lacking,” he added.
He recalled that countries with strong extractive industries that place greater emphasis on fossil fuels and allocate subsidies stand out in this scenario.
Lastly, Blanco considered COP29, the second held in the oil-producing country, to be a ‘transitional summit’ in preparation for COP30, which will be held in 2025 in the Amazon city of Belen do Para, with Brazil as host and leader. , leading to clearer and more robust results and commitments in terms of renewable energy and energy efficiency.
© Interpress Service (2024) — All Rights ReservedOriginal source: Interpress Service
