BBCIn battleground states like Arizona and Michigan, young women are lining up to vote early. Kamala Harris is hoping they will be the tide that turns her election.
On an unusually warm fall morning at the University of Michigan’s Ann Arbor campus, dozens of students lined up to vote at the university’s early voting center.
Among them was third-grader Keely Ganong, who was excited to vote for Harris.
“She’s just a leader I want to look up to to represent my country,” she said.
“Gender equality is at the forefront of the issue,” said her friend Lola Nordlinger, referring to abortion rights. “A woman’s choice is very personal to her and should not be determined by anyone else.”
Ms Ganong said everyone on campus was talking about voting with less than a week until Election Day.
“Student voices will definitely make a difference in the elections,” the 20-year-old said.
Adrianna Pete, 24, who has volunteered to teach democratic processes to students on campus, agrees:
“I think a lot of women are standing up.” she said
These young women are, in many ways, typical Harris voters. According to a recent poll from the Harvard Institute of Politics, Harris leads by a whopping 30 points among women ages 18 to 29. Specifically, she leads among college students of all genders by 38 points, according to an Inside Higher Ed/Generation Lab survey.
With polls tightening across the country and in battleground states like Michigan, Harris is counting on these young women to emerge in droves and win the election.
It’s a point that shouldn’t be missed by Hannah Brocks, 20, who waited in a long line to attend Harris and Waltz’s packed rally at an Ann Arbor-area park last week. She got involved with her school’s Young Democrats club, knocking on doors, sending out flyers, and making phone calls to persuade people to vote for Harris.
“I like the way she talks about people in general,” Mr. Brocks said. “There is so much love and empathy in the way she talks about other people.”
This advantage among young women could be further amplified if voter turnout in this election follows the same pattern as 2020, when there were about 10 million more women than men, according to the Center for American Women in Politics. .
Early voting exit polls again show a similar breakdown, about 55% women and 45% men, according to a Politico analysis, but analysts caution that they have no idea who these women voted for.
However, although much has been done about how I think this election will be a contest between boys and girls.The reality is much more complex. In the same Harvard poll, Harris’ lead among white women under 30 was 13 points ahead of Trump’s, and among women of color under 30, she was 55 points ahead.
A survey of white women of all ages showed that Harris’ lead was all but gone. This is history that could repeat itself. In 2016, more white women supported Trump than Hillary Clinton. In 2020, Trump’s lead with white women widened.
Democrats in general have had a particularly difficult time with non-college-educated white voters, men and women. If Harris wants to win, she will not only have to win a high turnout among young women who support her, but she will also have to win over women who don’t fit the mold.
“The best avatar for the mass electorate is a woman in a swing state who didn’t go to college,” says Evan Roth Smith, a pollster at Blueprint, a Democratic polling firm.
While these women appear to trust Republicans more on issues like immigration and the economy, Smith said abortion may be the issue that turns them toward Harris.
The vice president has pledged to restore abortion rights, and Trump has taken credit for the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v Wade, which guaranteed abortion rights to women nationwide.
Women who attended the Harris rally in the Arizona battlefield told the BBC that the stakes were particularly high this year. The state has a question on the ballot that would allow voters to decide whether the right to abortion should be enshrined in the state constitution. Currently, abortion is illegal after 15 weeks, with a few exceptions.
Mary Jelkovsky hopes that getting abortion on the ballot here in Arizona could help bring about a new wave.
The 26-year-old, wearing a bright blue tracksuit that said “Vote for your vag”, told the BBC she and her husband had started trying to get pregnant.
She says the idea that this could be forced on someone now that Roe v Wade has been overturned was difficult to wrap her head around.
Jelkovsky said the Supreme Court’s decision has sparked important conversations with her friends and family. She said she learned that several loved ones had had abortions, including once to save their lives.
“It’s personal, but it’s so important to have these conversations,” she says. “For us [women]“This election couldn’t be more important.”
The Harris campaign hopes that the abortion issue will not only inspire Democrats to get out to the polls, but also persuade Republican women to switch sides. These “quiet” Harris voters, as political analysts like to call them, could help boost her voter base, especially in tight races.
Rebecca Gau, 53, of Arizona was a lifelong Republican until Trump ran for president. She said when she voted for Joe Biden in 2020, it was a protest vote. But this time, she said she was happy to vote for Harris.
“I felt like she could represent me as a down-to-earth American woman,” she told the BBC in early October.
She said she was tired of “toxic masculinity” and thought other Republican women like her felt the same way.
“I don’t care what your political persuasion is. “Women are exhausted,” she said.
But not all Republican women are convinced. Tracey Sorrel is from Texas. BBC Voter PanelShe said she thought Harris would take abortion rights too far. Ultimately, Sorrell said she would vote for Trump, even if she didn’t like some of the things he said.
“I’m not voting on character. I’m voting on policy. I don’t have to marry that man,” she said.
With additional reporting by Robin Levinson King and Rachel Looker
