Beirut, Lebanon – Hezbollah is preparing for a variety of scenarios as its small-scale conflict with Israel threatens to escalate into a larger conflict.
Supporting the idea that Israel is shifting its military focus from Gaza to Lebanon were statements from officials, including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, on Sunday saying Israel would halt operations in Rafah and shift to Lebanon.
Any serious Israeli military action against Lebanon would attract the involvement of regional and possibly international powers.
So far, Israeli attacks have driven about 100,000 people from their homes in southern Lebanon and killed at least 435 people, 349 of whom were identified by Hezbollah.
Hezbollah appears to be sticking to its guns, intensifying cross-border attacks and matching Israeli rhetoric with its own. So far, the attacks have killed 15 Israeli soldiers and 10 civilians, according to Israel.
According to AFP, the two men have been exchanging attacks across the border since Israel began its war on Gaza on October 7, when a Hamas-led operation left 1,139 people dead in Israel.
Armistice or bankruptcy
Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah has repeatedly said in speeches since October that his group will stop border attacks against Israel only if Israel agrees to a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip.
Even as Israel turns most of its military attention to Lebanon, analysts believe Hezbollah will stand its ground.
“I don’t think Hezbollah will accept it. [negotiations] If a ceasefire is not reached [in Gaza]”The war will continue,” said Amal Saad, author of two books on Hezbollah.
“Nasrallah said he would continue to fight until Hamas was victorious, and Hezbollah would not sit idly by if Hamas was weakened and undermined. [its] She said, “hand.”
“There is a strategic goal here: Hezbollah will not leave Hamas on its own.”
The ceasefire idea appeared to have hit an impasse, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s hardline coalition partners calling for the “complete defeat of Hamas” before the war ends.
But some Israeli officials have expressed doubts about the idea of a complete defeat for Hamas, emphasizing that Hamas is an ideology and that ideas cannot be eradicated.
Military spokesman Daniel Hagari expressed those doubts on June 19, and National Security Council Chairman Tzachi Hanegbi said the same less than a week later on Tuesday.
Whether tacitly accepting the idea or out of other considerations, Israel is now talking about a lower-intensity phase, arguing that its military will continue to target Hamas in the Gaza Strip while seeking political alternatives to the isolated group. do. .
A low-intensity war in Gaza could theoretically allow Israel to focus on Lebanon, but that would require the Israeli military to face the challenging prospect of fighting on two fronts.
Projection intensity
Nasrallah is flexing his group’s muscles and solidifying his position.
On June 19, he said his group had more than 100,000 fighters, and that while the heads of many local armed groups had offered more fighters to join the fight against Israel, Hezbollah was already “overwhelmed” with its cadres. “He said he rejected the offer because there was.”
A day before the speech, Hezbollah released drone footage of the Israeli city of Haifa, an implicit threat that the city could be targeted.
Another video recently released by Hezbollah appears to show a series of targets in Israel and inside the Mediterranean.
“Hezbollah is showing Israel its options and simulating them. [to widen the] War … [this will make Israel] “We have to understand that the repercussions are very costly,” said Imad Salamey, a political scientist at the Lebanese American University.
Nasrallah also threatened Cyprus, an island nation that is part of the European Union but not NATO, if it supported Israel’s war.
Cyprus responded that it does not cooperate militarily with Israel in any conflict.
“Since October 8, Cyprus has become a major location for Israeli reservists to fly into Israel,” Seth Krummrich, a former special forces officer who now works at risk management firm Global Guardian, told Al Jazeera.
Israel has used Cypriot territory as a training ground in the past.
The threat was Nasrallah’s way of signaling to the European Union not to support Israel in any way. [its] Member States,” Salamey said.
Emergency Plan
While both sides are escalating and laying their cards on the table, Hezbollah will be making some contingency plans.
“Hezbollah likely has prepared a strategy for a limited, prolonged war in southern Lebanon, as well as a strategy for a broader, full-scale war,” said Karim Emil Bitar, a professor of international relations at Saint Joseph University in Beirut.
The limited war that Salamay refers to as a “low-intensity, asymmetric war of attrition” that “bleeds the enemy through low-cost, efficient and effective combat” is essentially an extension of the current conflict.
If full-scale war breaks out, attacks could intensify across Lebanon, including attacks on infrastructure such as Beirut’s airport, as Israel did in 2006.
Some analysts believe a limited ground invasion of southern Lebanon would be possible but would result in heavy casualties on both sides.
In the case of Bitar, Hezbollah probably does not want that option. “Hezbollah, like the Iranian regime, [an escalation] “It would be extremely dangerous and destructive for Lebanon,” he said.
Increased threats and military action are being carried out alongside diplomatic negotiations.
U.S. envoy Amos Hochstein recently visited Tel Aviv and Beirut and was accused of conveying Hezbollah messages through Nabih Berri, the speaker of the Lebanese parliament and Hezbollah ally.
According to unnamed Western diplomats interviewed by Axios, Hochstein told Hezbollah that it would be a mistake to assume the United States could prevent a major Israeli war.
Bitar said at the same time that Hezbollah and Israel were seeking a “face-saving exit or strategy” while relaying messages through French diplomats.
If these negotiations can lead to “guarantees to Israel” that “hezbollah’s allies will not be present within a range of 6 to 10 kilometers”; [4-6 mile] radius [from the border] And they have absolutely no intention of using the product. [Hezbollah’s elite] “Radwan forces will attack Israel” Hochstein’s efforts may bear fruit, Bitar said.
The parallel lines of diplomacy and military action are interconnected.
But since neither side wants to give the other a chance to declare moral victory, the fear that a miscalculation could escalate the situation is often repeated.
Barring a miscalculation or political decision by Israel to pursue it based on domestic considerations, war could still be prevented.
Hezbollah has maintained its call for a ceasefire as the only precondition for stopping the fighting.
“We are in a situation where domestic political considerations are taking precedence on both sides,” Bitar said.
“Hezbollah knows that most Lebanese people, including a significant portion of its supporters, do not want a new war,” he added.
“Both sides are considering these factors, but we are in an extremely unstable situation and any miscalculation on either side could lead to a new full-fledged agreement. [escalated conflict] “In that area.”
