By ~ calculated risk July 11, 2024 1:04:00 PM
In today’s Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 1: Housing Market Overview; Mid-July 2024
A brief excerpt:
This two-part outline, written in mid-July, provides a brief overview of the current state of the housing market.
I always like to start with inventory. Inventory usually consists of: Tell a story!
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Here’s Realtor.com’s new listings graph: Monthly Housing Market Trends Report June 2024 New listings rose 6.3% year over year in June, but new listings remain well below pre-pandemic levels. From Realtor.com:However, sellers did list more homes for sale in June this year. New listings were 6.3% above last year’s level and up from 5.9% in May. This marked the eighth month of increased listing activity after 17 straight months of declines.
Note the seasonality of new listings. December and January are the weakest months for new listings, followed by February and November. In 2024, the number of new listings is expected to increase year-over-year, but will still be below normal levels.
There are always people who have to sell their homes because of the so-called 3Ds: death, divorce, illness. Also, at certain times, some homeowners have to sell their homes because of unemployment or excessive debt (neither of which is a big problem right now).
And there are homeowners who want to sell their homes for a variety of reasons: upsizing (having more kids), downsizing, moving to a new job, moving to a better home or area (move-in buyers). Some of the “wanting to sell” group have been caught in a golden handcuff over the past few years because moving is financially difficult when current mortgage rates are around 3% and new mortgage rates are around 7%.
But for this “want-to-sell” group, time is of the essence, and eventually some of them will jump in. That’s probably why we’re seeing more new listings now.
There’s more to the article.
