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2024 US elections guide to Washington and the world
A new study that modeled Donald Trump’s 25 %tariffs to all income, according to a new study that modeled the fallout from the retaliation, can apply 25 %of tariffs to all income and dramatically increase the US price.
The US trade partner’s economic analysis of the worst scenario against Washington shows that the customs wars inspired by Trump will cause trade, prices, and decrease in living standards.
that study Economists at the University of Aston University in the UK, starting in North America between the United States, Mexico, and Canada, and pouring into Europe and the rest of the world, how the complex changes in the world’s commerce are shifting.
It is very uncertain about how Trump sets up a “mutual” tariff on what Trump calls “Liberation Day” and will respond to the affected country and trade block.
To describe potential fallout, this model uses quantum trade data in 132 countries in 2023 to investigate six escalation scenarios.
Although some countries can benefit from the so -called trade conversion effect as the trade patterns are transformed to avoid tariffs, the overall impact is negative when the trade war expands.
JUN DU, professor of economics at Aston University, said that if the country imposes 25 %tariffs with each other, it will have a similar impact with the 1930 trade war, which will deepen the Great Depression.
“This discovery coincides with historical precedents, such as the Smooth-Hawley tariffs and modern trade conflicts, and shows how protectionism erodes competitiveness, interferes with supply chains, and imposes imbalances on consumers.
In the virtual scenario of war in Canada, Mexico and China, all aspects of the tariffs imposed on Trump’s tariffs have a sharp decrease of 30 % of transactions.
Contraction in trade increases inflation and has a negative impact on the “economic welfare” measured by the actual terms of GDP per capita. But the United States suffers less than Mexico and Canada and reflects the balance of economic relations.
In this scenario, the blow to the US economic welfare is expected to be 1.1 % compared to the 7 and 5 % decrease in Mexico and Canada, respectively, and the negative impact occurs for more than five to ten years.
But in a full -fledged global trade war that partners retaliate for Trump tariffs, the United States will experience the worst inflation effects of all countries.
The scenario says, “We are suffering from international trade and economic activities.”
Some countries, such as Ireland, which has a narrow trade relationship with the United States, which depends on the high -integrated supply chain used in products such as drugs, are in danger of being in danger.
In Ireland, exports and imports increased slightly as a result of limited Canada-Mexico-Use trade wars, while exports decreased by 6.6 % and imports in the US-EU trade war.
The DU said, compared to a larger commercial relationship with China, Ireland’s less diversified trade base is said to be more vulnerable to being caught by crossfire among the world’s largest economy.
In particular, similar impacts are expected on US trade partners, such as Korea, which rely on car exports.
According to this study, BREXIT POST UK has found that it has the potential to use more agile trade policy outside the EU. But the unilateral action of the UK warned that it could strengthen its relationship with Brussels and injure the integrated EU-UK supply chain.
Du said, “This study reaffirms that there is no economy that has not been hurt by systematic tariff escalations because it amplifies the response and global instability of retaliation.
