Russia is approaching a major city in eastern Ukraine with its fastest military advance since the beginning of the war. If Russia can capture the city of Pokrovsk, it will gain a major strategic advantage in seizing the rest of Donbas.
Source: Critical Threats Project, Institute for the Study of War, American Enterprise Institute
Note: As of September 8th
Pokrovsk is central to many rail and road routes throughout Donbas. A successful Russian offensive would cut off a key supply line for Ukrainian forces in the remaining strongholds throughout the region, and Moscow’s forces could threaten Ukrainian positions south of the city.
The challenge for Ukraine is enormous. In August, its troops were retreating more than a mile a day.
Between the front line and the city, two dense Ukrainian fortifications remain, with anti-tank ditches to slow down the advance of Russian vehicles and dozens of circular trenches to protect infantry and mortar units.
Source: Satellite imagery from Planet Labs; Territorial Control from the War Studies Institute via the American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project
Last week, Ukraine sent additional troops to defend the defense line around Pokrovsk. Russia has shifted from a frontal assault on the city to an attack to the south, widening the front and threatening to encircle Ukrainian forces between Pokrovsk and the village of Kurakhov. The semicircle that Russia has formed in this area is known as the tactic of creating a “cauldron.”
The advance to Pokrovsk was the most successful part of the Russian offensive in the Donbas this summer. Elsewhere, the offensive along much of the Eastern Front achieved only modest gains after months of fierce fighting. For example, the year-long offensive toward the hilltop town of Chasiv Yar advanced only about three miles.
Source: Institute for War Studies, including the American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project
Note: As of September 8th
While the front around Pokrovsk moved rapidly throughout the summer, the overall Russian offensive in Donbass was costly and gradual.
Meanwhile, Ukraine launched a surprise invasion of the Kursk region in August. In one month, Ukraine seized more territory from Russia than it had in the previous year, but the territory gained from Russia has yet to be tested in a serious counteroffensive.
But Russia has continued to advance in Donbas, and President Vladimir Putin has said the Russian military will not move troops from the region to counter Russian advances in Ukraine.
However, this rapid phase of the war is likely to end with autumn rains, which could limit the movement of both sides. Most of the roads, not to mention the paved roads, will be muddy and almost impassable for heavy vehicles.
