The Trump administration insisted that renewable energy would make energy more expensive and fossil fuel power would reduce more power. But these arguments are false. If the Republic of Congress succeeds in abolishing major tax deductions that support the growth of clean energy, Americans will increase electricity bills.
So A Report published on Thursday Think tank energy innovation warning warnings warn the cost of abolishing clean energy tax deductions made by the 2022 inflation reduction law, which is a signature climate law of the BIDEN administration.
The fate of that tax deduction It remains very uncertain. Some Republican lawmakers expressed their support for maintaining them in place, but other lawmakers criticized incentives. Hundreds of dollars In the next 10 years, solar and wind power, battery, electric vehicles and other carbon technologies. President Donald Trump also vowed to abolish the IRA.
Major members of the Trump administration praised fossil gas and coal and condemned clean energy due to wasteful interference. Chris Wright, an energy minister at the industry event last week, is wind and solar.Obvious scale and cost problems”And he dismissed the prospect of providing more than a part of the country’s demands.
However, Energy Innovation’s report predicts a major downside side that abolishes tax deductions, including job losses and tens of billions of dollars in investments, and quite expensive electricity for US businesses and furniture.
Energy innovation
Robbie Orvis, a modeling and analysis director of Energy Innovation, said, “We have looked at the level of energy bills, jobs and economic growth.
The report modeled the cost of electricity in two scenarios. One is that incentives and federal funds are now maintained and this year is abolished. According to the “abolition” scenario, annual consumer energy bills will be more than $ 6 billion for US households in 2030 and more than $ 9 billion in 2035. If you translate into individual households, the energy cost will increase on average $ 48 in 2030 and $ 68 per year in 2035, and will continue to increase over the next few years.
Orvis said it would increase relatively in some states. “But if you look at more than 2035, most households have more than $ 100 per year.”
The result is consistent with other recent studies on the same topic.
Last month, Brattle Group abolished the clean energy tax deduction by publishing a report commissioned by Consermarica, a conservative environmental advocate. Increase your residential electricity bill Nationwide average $ 83 annually by 2035, up to $ 152 per year in California, New England and the Midwest.
In addition, Nera Economic Consulting was expected in the February report commissioned by the Clean Energy Building Association Trade Group to abolish tax deductions. Increase the average US electricity price Nearly 10 % by 2029, more than 30 % for certain weekly commercial and industrial customers.
Utility is blocking more and more households.
Republican leaders promised to cut federal expenses to pay for extension. Tax reduction of billions of dollars It was passed by the first Trump administration, which is mainly helpful for companies and rich individuals. Reducing clean energy incentives may be in the cutting board, but as a result, only part of the tax reduction can be covered.
However, most of the investment in clean energy facilities and factories depressed by the law was in the state and parliamentary districts. Republican is represented by the Republican PartyIt is more difficult to create a way to abolish the clean energy incentives of the inflation reduction method.
Last week, 21 GOP members wrote a letter Request for preservation This tax deduction says it is important to grow the economy and achieve the Trump administration’s “energy control” agenda. They also warned that the abolition of them would increase the public rate the next day.
The reason why clean power is cheap
The abolition of these tax deductions is simple, the reason for increasing costs is simple, Orvis said. Solar and wind energy can supply electricity with lower long -term costs than alternatives such as coal, gas and nuclear power plants. The more you can build, the more expensive resources can be replaced.
In the last 10 years, the sun and wind power generation The cheapest source of new electricity generation According to the international energy organization, according to the majority of the world. These cost advantages were mainly led by the deployment of solar panels, lithium ion batteries and wind turbines, as well as the economy of technology improvement and production scale. Government subsidies have played an important role.
In the United States, you can supply power at a lower speed than 99 %of the newly built solar and wind power complexes. The rest of the country’s coal factory. Even the fossil gas around the American grid struggles to compete with the new clean energy. Think Tank RMI studies show that the portfolio of solar, wind and battery paired with utility energy efficiency investment Provides grid demands at low cost Than the newly built gas thermal power plant.
Florida is now a solar clown. The following is what happened.
In addition, the cost of the sun and wind has not been related to the fluctuations in the price of fossil gas, and it has caused significant electricity prices over the past few years, ORVIS said. Lack of fuel costs reduce operating and maintenance costs and finance the wind and sun with long -term victory.
Energy developers and utility are following money. last year, Solar heat, battery and wind are composed of 90 % or more Among the 56 -giga -watt power capacity built in the United States, the US Energy Intelligence Service predicts the solar will. Lead power plant construction which The battery installation stops the record Again in 2025.
Wind and Sun Farm It costs more to build But more than equal gas power plants. As a result, the speed and scale of growth depend more on incentives to reduce the cost of capital and prepaid costs that are affected by interest rates. In the United States, the inflation reduction method has provided a single boost of a single boost that helps to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by supervising the federal tax deductions that have been supporting the industry for decades.
Reducing these tax deductions reduces its growth, creates emissions on earth and harmful regional air pollution, and relies more on fossil fuel plants that can earn more money for consumers. According to the analysis of Energy Innovation, the cost of additional fuels, operations and maintenance will be added to the US electricity price in 2030 and 2035.
‘Energy Emergency’ -The wrong captain
The Trump administration has moved to cancel decades of federal policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, fight climate change, and protect the environment. also”National Energy EmergencyThis must be used as a solution for the reinstated energy as a threat to grid reliability and the use of fossil fuels as a solution.
WRIGHT Energy Secretary, an old gas industry executive I denied that climate change is a crisis.He attacked his sun and wind power keynote speech At Ceraweek at S & P Global Conference in Houston last week. “The wind and the sun penetration increased significantly, the price of the grid rose and the grid stability fell.”
But the claim is “no burden at all by the data,” said Orvis. Increasing the risk of grid blackout and emergency It is mainly driven by extreme weatherIt is related to global warming. And the volatility of wind and solar power is closely related to the weather, but the traditional power plant has been proven to be much less reliable than the patron insisted. 2021 Texas’s large -scale grid power outage and 2022 southeast of the United States.
The relationship between clean energy and electricity prices Last year’s energy innovation report In recent years, the surge in electricity utility costs is not related to renewable energy, but other factors, including the surge in fossil gas prices after the invasion of Ukraine, the expansion of utility grids and increased maintenance costs.
Last week’s report from the Think Tank EMBER has been repeated. Data It relies on dependence on clean energy and utility electricity costs. The report pointed out that “some states with wind and sun penetration, such as Io, South Dakota, and Kansas, have the lowest electricity prices in the country.”
Other states with aggressive clean energy orders such as California and Massachu Setts have the most expensive electricity in this country, the report said. However, in this cost, in the case of Massachusetts or California, “expensive imported fossil fuels”, ie, “natural disasters”, ie, that is. Huge costMany people due to the failure of the utility grid meant investments to prevent more.
More extensive, the cost of electric utility service is mainly related to the increase in investment in utility transmission and distribution grids and fuel costs that supply their generations, Paul Decotis, a senior partner of West Monroe. “If people are concerned about high fuel costs, the federal government has made it possible to use tax deductions for decades for renewable energy.
In Ceraweek’s speech, Wright also mocked the idea that the wind, the sun, and the battery could completely replace the fossil fuels to provide capacity for 24 hours. But the United States does not face that problem in the short term. Instead, according to energy industry analysts and management, new capabilities to meet the needs of the nation must be built inexpensively and quickly.
The United States is A 1st grade boom In the case of electricity New data center and factory In the short term and in the long run, by a pushmul that moves from fossil fuel to electric vehicles and moves to heating. Many utility proposes to build Gigawatt of the new gas thermal power plant to meet the demand. But today, the gas turbine manufacturer says it cannot supply unplanned power plants by 2028 or 2029.
ORVIS said, “We will not be able to meet gas because we actually build gas when we actually talked about in our guest energy security and energy supply scenarios.
John Ketchum, the NEXERA ENERGYYCE CEO, can build a new sun, wind and battery project all year round, making it an important short -term solution for increased power demand. I told the New York Times Ceraweek added, “If you take out renewable energy and storage, you will force the electricity price to the moon.”
