Iran will hold a runoff presidential election on Friday after record-low voter turnout left no candidate winning more than half the votes.
In the second round, voters will face a stark choice between reformists who promise better relations with the West and an easing of social restrictions, and hardliners who want to strengthen the conservatives’ grip on power.
According to the Interior Ministry, reformist former Health Minister Massoud Fezezhikian won 42% of the vote in the vote announced on Saturday, while Saeed Jalili, the most ideologically hard-line regime supporter of the three conservative candidates, received 38%.
But the mere 40 percent turnout will dominate political discourse ahead of the second round, with voters largely unwilling to rebuke both reformists and hardliners within the Islamic Republic.
Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said on Friday that a high turnout was “absolutely necessary” and that Iran’s “continuity, stability, honor and dignity in the world” depended on the people’s vote.
The election comes at a critical time for the regime amid rising tensions with the West sparked by the Israel-Hamas war and the expansion of Tehran’s nuclear program. The republic is also preparing for a final succession if Khamenei, 85, dies.
The emergency vote followed the death of Ibrahim Raisi, a cleric and potential successor to Khamenei’s hardline president, in a helicopter crash last month.
Reformist politicians were boosted by the authorities’ surprise decision to allow Pezeshkian to run after the 2021 presidential election, and this year’s parliamentary polls eliminated leading reformist and centrist contenders from the race.
But many voters who typically supported moderate candidates are angry about the country’s economic instability, social restrictions and isolation from the West, and are increasingly disillusioned with their leaders. They have given up on the idea that change can come from within the regime and are loath to see the ballot box as a way to legitimize a theocratic regime.
The mood has been dark since the 2021 presidential election that brought Raisi to power, with many believing the outcome was predetermined because leading reformists were barred from contesting. The voter turnout in this election, at 48%, was the lowest in any presidential election poll since the 1979 Islamic Revolution.
The following year, massive anti-regime protests erupted after 22-year-old Mahsa Amini died in police custody after being arrested on suspicion of not properly wearing her hijab. A social media campaign this year urged people not to vote, saying it would be a betrayal of those killed during the crackdown on protests.
As a result, not voting has become a form of silent protest against the regime in countries with young populations.
“Iranian society has completely transformed since 2022. [since the Amini protests]“Neither the theoretical frameworks nor the old methods of public opinion polling can understand the new society,” sociologist Mohammad-Reza Javadi-Yeganeh wrote in a post on X.
Reformist politicians will be banking on the hope that more Iranians will turn out to the polls in the runoff between Pezeshkian and Jalili.
Fezeshkian, 69, pledged to resolve Tehran’s nuclear conflict with the West and restart negotiations with the United States to secure sanctions relief while easing social restrictions, including a more relaxed stance on mandatory hijab wearing for women. suggested that it would be done.
But Jalili, 58, is betting that he has a better chance of running as the only hard-line candidate, and is hoping the conservative base will unite around him.
Typically, hard-line candidates withdraw from the race to support the leading candidate just before voters go to the polls. But this time, neither Jalili nor another hardliner, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, who came in third place, were willing to step aside despite pressure from within the camp, dividing the conservative vote.
Ghalibaf threw his weight behind Jalili after the results were announced.
Analysts have warned that if Jalili wins, he will enforce social restrictions more strictly and become more hostile to relations with the United States and other Western powers.
Fezeshkian and Ghalibaf have suggested they would be open to negotiations with the West, but Jalili told supporters he would “use the existing economic potential to make our enemies regret imposing sanctions.” [on Iran]”.
Although important foreign policy and domestic decisions are made by the Supreme Leader, the President can influence the government’s tone in the republic and its foreign relations.
But Fezeshkian’s challenge is that he, as president, can make a difference in a system where the Supreme Leader has ultimate authority and hard-line elected and unelected power centers, including the elite Revolutionary Guards, exert significant influence at home and abroad. It will be a reassurance to the Iranian people who are wary of this. Policy.
“There is absolutely no reason to vote,” said Saba, a 22-year-old student. “No one can change the situation. [the president] It’s just a small part of a big circle and no one can change it.”
