NFP changes below the consensus, but the previous moon has been revised upward. It is a large benchmark amendment (-610,000), but it rises by 2 million (2 million rise) until the employment of civilians in December 2024.
Figure 1: Figure 1. Bold Blue’s benchmark revision employment, preliminary benchmarks from NFP implied NFP, December (blue), reported private employment (orange), industrial production (RED), CH.2017 $ (Bold) Except for the current transmission, personal income Light Green), 2017 CH.2017 $ (black), CH.2017 $ (Light Blue) consumption and monthly GDP of CH.2017 $ (Pink), GDP (Blue Bars) Manufacturing and trade sales of all, all logs have been normalized. 2021m11 = 0. Source: Fred, Federal Reserve, BEA 2024Q4 S & P Global Market Insight (Nee macro economic advisor, IHS Markit) (1/2/2025 release) and the calculation of the author.
As mentioned in the last post, in 2025, the new population control was applied in 2025, so do not take the trajectory of the civilian employment series. More reasonable orbits are to apply an implicit control to take home series and use it. Estimated CBO of immigration until mid -2012.
Figure 2: Figure 2. Civilian employment, December 2024 release, January 2025 release, new population control (TAN) and CBO immigration estimates, author (Green), ALL IN000, SA Source: FRED, CBO Calculation of the BLS and the author.
Today’s NOWCAST is 2.7% (Atlanta Fed GDPNOW) and 3.12% (NY Fed).
