JPMORGAN Chase & Co. expects the US economy to fall into recession this year after accounting for the impact of tariffs announced by the Trump administration this week.
“We are now looking forward to the contract according to the weight of the tariff, and for all year (4Q/4Q), we are looking for real GDP growth of -0.3%from 1.3%to -0.3%.
FEROLI said, “The predicted contraction of economic activity is expected to be depressed over employment and time to increase the unemployment rate to 5.3%.
President Donald Trump’s announcement of major tariffs on US trading partners around the world spent the lowest level of US stocks in 11 months.Wipe off $ 5.4Market value in just two trading sessions to end a week.
Read more:The worst stock collapse after the cobid has deepened as the economic downturn has surged.
JPMORGAN’s predictions have been made with similar changes to other banks that prevent projection of US growth this year since the tariff announcement. Barclays PLC said on ThursdayGDP expects a contractIn 2025, “It coincides with the recession.”
On Friday, Citi Economists has reduced growth forecasts to 0.1%this year and UBS economists dropped to 0.4%.
UBS American economist Jonathan Pingle said, “We have returned to the level of 1986, with the proportion of GDPs by more than 20% from 20% away from our predictions.” “Strongness of trade policy behavior means a significant macroeconomic adjustment for the $ 30 trillion economy.”
‘Stagflationary Progast’
Peroli will begin to reduce benchmark interest rates in June, and by January, each subsequent meeting will cut interest rates, bringing the benchmarks from 2.75% to 3% in the current 4.25% to 4.5% range.
This reduction will come even though the main scale of fundamental inflation has increased from 2.8%of the current level to 4.4%by the end of the year.
Read more:Powell said it would not be cut off when the market continued to come.
“If it is realized, our stagflationary prediction will present dilemma to policy makers.” We believe that the material weakness of the labor market is shaking. Especially if wage growth is weak, it is more convinced to give the committee that the price of the price of the price is not maintained. ”
On Friday, Jerome Powell, the Fed’s president, said, “You don’t have to rush.” His opinion followed the announcement of the latest monthly employment report of the Labor Statistics Bureau.He showed strong hiringIn March, the unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.2%.
According to FutureS, investors bet on the total reduction point by the end of the year.
This story was originally on Fortune.com.
