The University of Virginia’s Sabato’s Crystal Ball changed North Carolina from “R-League” to “Split Turnout.”
North Carolina voted for Barack Obama by a narrow margin in 2008, the first time the state had voted for a Democrat since 1976. But it has since swung back to the Republican Party, and has supported the GOP candidate by about 2, 3.5, and 1.5 points in the last three elections. Recent polls have been very close, part of Kamala Harris’s overall improvement. She quickly emerged as the Democratic nominee in all but name, just days after President Biden dropped out of his reelection bid exactly a month ago.
There was also an older argument that North Carolina might be a better Democratic target than Georgia, a claim that might have made perfect sense in the last cycle but seemed odd this cycle, given that Georgia voted for Biden by a narrow margin. In 2020, Harris currently polls only slightly better in North Carolina than in Georgia. Despite the polls, we think Georgia is more likely to vote left of North Carolina again in 2024.
Of the states Harris could win, North Carolina is a weaker bet. Biden won Georgia in 2020, and Trump’s lead there may be slightly overstated, as Georgia has a larger African-American population.
Looking at recent election history, it’s very likely that Harris will do better in Georgia than in North Carolina.
But the fact is that it’s Trump Campaigns thought they had North Carolina under their belt, but now they have to buy advertising time for their campaigns, which shows how much elections have changed.
Georgia is the only one of the seven swing states where Trump leads. The rest are tied or leaning toward Kamala Harris.
If North Carolina becomes a serious contest, Republicans could be in huge trouble, because if Trump can’t hold the state, he’ll struggle to win the election.
