After the phenomenal dominance of Red Bull last year, especially Max Verstappen, many expected 2024 to be similar. But things don’t go as planned.
Verstappen won seven consecutive poles to start the season, but was then topped qualifying by Charles Leclerc, George Russell and Lando Norris at Monaco, Montreal and Barcelona respectively.
While he fought back to win the last two races, it was nothing like last year’s walk in the park, when Red Bull swept all but one victory in a 22-race season.
A rare mechanical failure at Red Bull allowed Carlos Sainz to win in Melbourne after surgery, while lucky safety car timing helped Norris claim his first F1 win in Miami last month.
Charles Leclerc became the first Monegasque to win his home race in the modern Formula 1 era, but what could prove much more significant in the long run was Verstappen’s fall to fifth in the principality.
Verstappen still holds an impressive 69 points lead over Norris in the Drivers’ Championship after the first 10 races. But that compares with a 99-point lead over Red Bull team-mate Sergio Perez at the same stage 12 months ago.
Red Bull motorsport consultant Dr Helmut Marko is concerned that Verstappen’s incredible skills in the cockpit are covering up some of the cracks that have started to appear in the team’s performance this year.
“Max has not been able to push his limits throughout the season,” Marco told Austrian media. OE24 Ahead of Red Bull’s home race this weekend at the Red Bull Ring in Austria.
“Max wins because he’s confident, not because the car is too good,” he said, pointing to his winning ways over Norris and Russell in Spain last weekend.
“The overtaking strategy with which he took the lead was special for him too,” Marko said, comparing it to Perez’s continued struggles, which saw him fall to fifth in the championship behind Ferrari duo Leclerc and Sainz.
“Checo started much further behind.” Marko conceded, citing Perez’s pending grid penalty in Montreal. “But now everything is so close that I can’t afford the weakness.”
As well as fierce competition from McLaren and Ferrari, Mercedes now appears to be back in the mix after struggling in recent seasons following the reintroduction of ground-effect aerodynamics to F1 in 2022.
Marko explained that the resurgence of fortunes of old enemies this year may actually work in their favor.
“If Mercedes were there now it would be good for us and the world championship calculations,” he said after Lewis Hamilton joined Russell on the podium, pushing the two Ferrari drivers to fifth and sixth.
The result leaves Leclerc now two points behind Norris in the standings, but Russell and Hamilton are too far behind to be in title contention.
Red Bull has more than twice as many points as Mercedes and is behind Spain and 60 points ahead of Ferrari. However, this compares to the 108-point lead held by Red Bull after the first 10 rounds of 2023.
If Marko is really worried about trends in F1, his counterparts from rival teams can’t help but feel increasingly encouraged.
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