Peter Kettle |
Following his article on Dead Runs and responding to critics’ reactions, Peter Kettle gives four examples of how he evaluated it for Don Bradman.
DEAD RUNS Example 1
BRADMAN – Australia v West Indies
Melbourne, February 1931 (4th Test)
Early Aus/WI series
WI’s #1 Inn, 99 Runs
Australia’s No. 1 Hotel, 328/8 dec (Bradman 152)
Then the lead is 229
Aus 2nd Inn: Assuming at least 250 runs
In this series, Aus’ other 2nd inn: 172/0 and 220 on a sticky pitch.
Aus completed first inns of 376, 369, 558 and 224 on the sticky pitch.
Kippax, McCabe, Ponsford and Woodfull are doing well (except Bradman).
That leaves the target for WI 2nd Inns at 479 runs.
The remote probability is set to 370 (i.e., less than 109), representing a conceptual probability of 1 in 20.
This means a safe first-class hotel dec of 219 in Australia. (less 109 instead of 328).
rationale:
The second most popular inn in WI in this series has 249 (Headley has 11), while all other inns have less than 200.
And the WI top ranked hotel is 350/6 (Headley 105) and tumbles after the turnstile.
Previously, the final hotel target of 370 had been reached or exceeded on only three occasions across all tests, the highest being 411 (all post-World War I).
Bradman was out when Aus’ score was 286 and the team had accumulated 67 Dead Runs.
He scored goals at a rate of 66:34, twice as fast as his partners.
So, of the 67 Dead Runs, 66% are attributed to Bradman = 44 (best estimate)
We set it within the limits of 31 and 57, reflecting alternative estimates for that.
Remote possibilities starting from 350 or 390.
Dead Run Example 2
Bradman – Aus vs South Africa
Adelaide, January 1932 (4Day test)
SA 1castle Inn, 308 runs
Australia 1castle Inn, 513 (Bradman 299*) – Leading 205
Australia 2is motel: Assuming at least 270 runs
Of the six Australian inns in the series, only one costs less than $450;castle He pitched 198 innings (Bradman’s only failure, two innings), and 153 innings on very sticky pitching.
Goals of SA 2nd Then the inn will be 475 runs.
The remote possibility is considered to start at 390 (i.e. lower than 85), which is a 1 in 20 chance.
means safe 1castle inns dec 428 in australia (instead of 513).
rationale:
SA’s top inn in this series is 358 (3rd test), the highest 2~is Inns 274 and 225.
390 had only been exceeded twice in all previous tests, with the highest being 411 (both times after World War II).
Bradman was unbeaten at the end of Aus 1.castle Inn when 85 teams have accumulated dead runs.
He scored faster than his partners by a ratio of 65:35.
So, 65% of the 85 dead runs are due to Bradman = 55 (best estimate).
For him, it reflects alternative estimates of distant possibilities starting at 370 and 410 – within the limits of 42 and 68.
Deadrun example 3
BRADMAN – AUSTRALIA VS UK
Melbourne, January 1937 (3road name test)
Aus (200) led England (76 runs on a “glupot” pitch) by 124 runs in one match.castle motel.
Aus then found themselves in tough conditions with a tail-ender and amassed 564 points in 2.is Leading the way are Bradman (270) and Fingleton (136), both in the lower mid-table, making up almost three-quarters.
So Eng set a huge goal of 689 points.
The remote possibility is considered to start at 440 runs (representing a 1 in 20 chance), which means a 249 down from Aus 2.nd Inn, 315 with declaration.
rationale:
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- England 2nd The total number of innings in this series did not exceed 330, but in 2 they recorded 426/6.nd Test First Inn (Hammond Double Century).
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- The highest final innings score until then had been 411, scored by England in Sydney in December 1924 (with two scores just over 100 and two scores just over 50).
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Bradman was eliminated with 549 points, so the team dead run had accumulated to 234 points by then.
He again outpaced his partner 65:35, posting 152 Dead Runs.
Alternative remote probability estimates of 420 and 460 result in 139 to 165 dead runs.
DEAD RUNS Example 4
Bradman – Aus v England
Sydney, December 1946 (2)is test)
Australia responds to Britain’s humble reply 1castle 255 inns with a massive 659/8 dec – ahead of 404 runs. Barnes and Bradman each made 234.
England 2 remote possibilityis The inn is located at 430If 2 is givennd The totals for this series are 371, 310/7 (high scores 112 and 53) and 340/8 dec (high scores 103 and 76). This represents a 1 in 20 chance.
The team score of 430 has been exceeded eight times in the final innings in all Test history, approaching only the 1947 match between South Africa and England (423/7).
Australia 2nd There are assumed to be at least 230 inns. – Scored 253 and 214/5 in the last Test of the series.
This means safe Aus 1.castle Inn December 455; With a lead of 200. Bradman had 564 with the Dead Runs team up to 109 at the time.
Bradman scored 60:40 faster than his partner Barnes throughout the first half, so 60% of 109. Bradman’s dead run is 65.
Another estimate is that the remote possibility comes in at 410 or 450 (the latter has been equaled or exceeded four times in Test history), meaning Bradman’s dead run is in the 53-77 range.
