New census population estimates show incredibly high population growth rates

by calculated risk December 24, 2024 12:46:00 PM

In today’s CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: New census population estimates show incredibly high population growth rates

extract:

Housing economist Tom Lawler says: New census population estimates incorporate revised methodology for estimating net international migration, showing extraordinarily high population growth

Last week’s census said,vintage 2024” Estimates of the U.S. resident population, and the new estimates show population growth has been much faster over the past few years than shown in the “Vintage 2023” estimates. That’s because, of course, the census updated its methodology to include estimates of “humanitarian” immigrants, including border patrol releases and parolees. As many will remember, last year CBO released a report showing that net international migration over the past few years has been much higher than official census estimates, according to Border Patrol and other data. For more information about the Census’ updated NIM methodology, see: Census Bureau improves methodology to better predict growth in net international migration.

Below are some tables comparing vintage 2024 population estimates to vintage 2023 population estimates.

Note: Each population “vintage” includes a projection of the resident population for the following year. So for Vintage 2023 the 2024 numbers are a prediction, and for Vintage 2024 the 2025 numbers are a prediction.

As you can see from this table, Based on Vintage 2024, the projected population growth rate from July 1, 2021 to July 1, 2024 is 3,386,610 people higher than the Vintage 2023 estimate.. In fact, these differences all reflect the higher net international migration estimates in the Vintage 2024 estimates.