The NFL regular season is just one week away. Five teams are competing for the final two spots. This is a much clearer playoff picture than last season, when 11 teams competed for five spots.
For many teams, final week seeding is still more important than ever. For example, the loser of the Vikings-Lions game would have to play on the road as a wild card team, while the winner would receive a No. 1 seed and a bye.
And many teams may determine their playoff seeding based not only on wins and losses in their own games, but also on the results of other games. The tree below shows how the final weekend determines the seeding results for all remaining competitors.
If you want to take a closer look at all the possible outcomes, you can use our interactive playoff simulator to set the outcome of every game and see how it changes each team’s playoff odds.
(One note: the tree shows a scenario involving a tie, but the discussion below assumes there will be no tie.)
AFC East
Buffalo Bills 13-3
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#2 seed
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#2 seed
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#2 seed
If you want something more interesting, scroll down. The Bills will be the No. 2 seed. They will play the lowest seeded AFC wild card team.
The expected opponents for the 2nd seed are: Denver Broncos, Miami Dolphins, Cincinnati Bengals
miami dolphins 8-8
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#7 seeds
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A two-game winning streak has kept the Dolphins alive in the playoff hunt. A win over the 4-12 Jets means the Denver Broncos would have to lose to the Kansas City Chiefs to get in.
that uncertain If Miami quarterback Tua Tagovailoa plays this weekend. It’s also unclear how much rest Kansas City’s starters will have this weekend, since the Chiefs have clinched the top seed.
If you are the 7th seed, your opponent: Buffalo Bills
AFC North
baltimore ravens 11-5
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#3 seeds
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#3 seeds
After Baltimore’s Christmas win and Pittsburgh’s loss, the Ravens can win the division with a 3-13 win over the visiting Browns. If the Steelers lose to the Bengals, they will also win the division.
If the Ravens win their division, they will be the No. 3 seed. Otherwise, you’ll be the No. 5 seed.
Possible opponents for the 3rd seed: Los Angeles Chargers, Pittsburgh Steelers
If seeded 5, opponent: Houston Texans
Pittsburgh Steelers 10-6
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#3 seeds
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#6 seeds
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#5 seeds
The Steelers lost control of the AFC North last week. To reclaim it (and the No. 3 seed), they’ll have to win against the 3-13 Browns and hope the Ravens lose. It’s much more likely that the Steelers will make the playoffs as a wild card, i.e. as a 5 or 6 seed.
If you are the 3rd seed, your opponent: Los Angeles Chargers
If seeded 5, opponent: Houston Texans
Opponent for 6th seed: baltimore ravens
cincinnati bengals 8-8
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#7 seeds
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The Bengals are last in line to secure the No. 7 seed. Not only do they need a win (against the 10-6 Steelers), they also need the Denver Broncos and Miami Dolphins to lose. In our simulations, this happens about 15% of the time.
If you are the 7th seed, your opponent: Buffalo Bills
AFC South
Houston Texans 9-7
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#4 seeds
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#4 seeds
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#4 seeds
The Texans can rest key players this week, as their final game against the Tennessee Titans will not impact playoff seeding. Houston is the 4th seed and will play a playoff game against the top wild card team.
The expected opponents for the 4th seed are: Pittsburgh Steelers, Los Angeles Chargers, Baltimore Ravens
AFC West
Kansas City Chiefs 15-1
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#1 Seed
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#1 Seed
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#1 Seed
On Christmas Day, the Chiefs sealed the top seed and had a bye, giving them a few weeks of rest between meaningful games.
On Sunday, they play the still-contending Denver Broncos. If the Broncos win that game, Cincinnati and Miami will be eliminated from the playoffs.
Seed No. 1: hi
Los Angeles Chargers 10-6
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#6 seeds
The Chargers advanced to the playoffs with a win over the Patriots last weekend. They will most likely make the playoffs as a No. 6 seed, but with a win and some luck, they could move up to No. 5, an easier first-round game.
If seeded 5, opponent: Houston Texans
Possible opponents for the 6th seed: Baltimore Ravens, Pittsburgh Steelers
Denver Broncos 9-7
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#7 seeds
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#7 seeds
The Broncos have failed to advance to the playoffs for the second straight week. They will play the 15-1 Chiefs this weekend, likely with most of their key players rested. The Broncos could clinch the No. 7 seed with a win, or hope that both Cincinnati and Miami lose.
If you are the 7th seed, your opponent: Buffalo Bills
NFC East
Philadelphia Eagles 13-3
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#2 seed
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#2 seed
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#2 seed
After last weekend’s win over Dallas, the Eagles become the No. 2 seed in the NFC.
The expected opponents for the 2nd seed are: Green Bay Packers, Washington Commanders
Washington Commanders 11-5
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#6 seeds
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#7 seeds
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#6 seeds
The Commanders clinched a playoff spot with a dramatic overtime win over Atlanta last weekend. A win against Dallas would be a great way to secure a better matchup in their first playoff game.
Possible opponents for the 6th seed: Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Los Angeles Rams
If you are the 7th seed, your opponent: Philadelphia Eagles
NFC North
Detroit Lions 14-2
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#1 Seed
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#1 Seed
The Lions-Vikings game on Sunday night will determine who wins the NFC North and the top seed. The loser drops to the No. 5 seed and becomes the first 13-win team to have to pick a wild card since 1999.
For seed number 1: hi
Possible opponents for the 5th seed: Los Angeles Rams, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Atlanta Falcons
Minnesota Vikings 14-2
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#1 Seed
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#5 seeds
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#5 seeds
If the Vikings beat the Lions, they would clinch the top seed, but a loss would drop them to fifth place.
For seed number 1: hi
Possible opponents for the 5th seed: Los Angeles Rams, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Atlanta Falcons
green bay packers 11-5
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#6 seeds
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#7 seeds
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#7 seeds
The 11-5 Green Bay Packers would be a 6th or 7th seed. They will lose a tiebreaker to the Commanders for seeding, so they will need to win while the Commanders lose to secure the 6th seed.
Possible opponents for the 6th seed: Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Los Angeles Rams
If you are the 7th seed, your opponent: Philadelphia Eagles
NFC South
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9-7
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#3 seeds
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#4 seeds
Last weekend was a good one for Tampa Bay. Falcons wins and losses to the Commanders. The Bucs lost to Atlanta in a tiebreaker, but are one game ahead in the NFC South, so they just need to win their last game or see the Falcons lose again to win the division.
You can advance to the playoffs as the 3rd or 4th seed. If you don’t win your division, there is no wildcard path.
Possible opponents for the 3rd seed: Washington Commanders, Green Bay Packers
Possible opponents for the 4th seed: Minnesota Vikings, Detroit Lions
Atlanta Falcons 8-8
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#4 seeds
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The Falcons’ overtime loss to the Commanders last weekend could cost them a playoff spot. This weekend the Buccaneers play the 4-12 Panthers, but the Buccaneers play the 5-11 Saints and a win would put them past Atlanta.
In our simulations, the Falcons sneak in about 17% of the time.
Possible opponents for the 4th seed: Minnesota Vikings, Detroit Lions
NFC West
Los Angeles Rams 10-6
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#3 seeds
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#4 seeds
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#3 seeds
The Rams started the season 1-4 but clinched a playoff spot with a week to spare.
If they win this weekend, they will become the 3rd seed. Even if they lose, they can secure the 3rd seed, but they will likely fall to the 4th seed.
Possible opponents for the 3rd seed: Washington Commanders, Green Bay Packers
Possible opponents for the 4th seed: Minnesota Vikings, Detroit Lions
