The current forecast and predictions as of today are as follows:
Figure 1: GDP (bold black), median summary of economic forecasts (light green triangles), GDPNow as of 9/18 (light blue squares), NY Fed nowcast as of 9/20 (red triangles), FT-Booth as of 9/14 (blue squares), median SPF as of August (brown), all in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. Repeated growth rates at GDP levels (excluding survey of professional forecasters). Source: BEA 2024Q2 Release 2, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Federal Reserve September 2024 September And the author’s calculations.
To see how the current forecast has changed, just look at the implied trajectory over several weeks.
Figure 2: GDP (bold black), GDPNow 9/18 (light blue squares), 9/6 (light blue squares), NY Fed nowcast 9/20 (dark red line), 9/13 (light red line), all in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. Repeated growth rates at GDP levels. Source: BEA 2024Q2 Release 2, Atlanta Fed, NY Fed, author calculations.
