Today in NY and St. Nowcast about the St. Louis Feds is coming. St. Louis rose from 1.14% to 1.73% q/q AR. NY Fed and GS tracking unchanged at 3.2%.
Figure 1: GDP (bold black), median economic outlook summary repeated in the third release (inverted light green triangle), GDP as of October 9 (light blue square), current state of the NY Fed as of October 11 (red triangle) , St. Louis Fed news as of October 11 (pink x), Goldman Sachs tracking as of October 9 (green +), FT-Booth as of September 14 repeats in third release (blue square), all bn.Ch no see. 2017$ SAAR. This is a repeated calculation of GDP-level growth rates, excluding surveys of professional forecasters. Source: BEA 2024Q2 3rd Announcement, Atlanta Fed, NY Fed, Philadelphia Fed, Federal Reserve September 2024 September And the author’s calculations.
The Lewis-Merten-Stock Weekly Economic Index (data available until 10/5) is AR 2.10%, while the corresponding Baumeister-Leiva-Leon-Sims Weekly Economic Conditions Index is -0.11% (so 1.89% for 2%). . trend). If that’s the case, it’s hard to see a recession in the data available through early October.
Finally, based on these estimates, we welcome a new member to the “recession camp.” Mike Shadlock. furthermore, EJ Antoni and Peter St. Onge backdated the start of the recession to 2022..
