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Olympic Tennis Predictions: Carlos Alcaraz, Iga Swiatek Highlights Field

MONews
14 Min Read

Every four years (or so), tennis gives us a fifth major. Well, in a way. Sometimes Olympic tennis provides a huge heavyweight matchup — and sometimes it’s a surprise.

It would be hard to top Andy Murray vs. Roger Federer and Serena Williams vs. Maria Sharapova for gold in 2012. Murray and Rafael Nadal combined for three golds, of course. But while Nicolas Massu and Monica Puig won singles golds, Federer and Novak Djokovic did not. small It has little meaning.

Like the 2012 Olympics at the All England Club in Wimbledon, the 2024 Paris Games will be held at a very familiar venue, Roland Garros, home of the French Open. Despite some top players missing due to injury, all the male and female semifinalists from this year’s French Open are in the Olympics, including 14-time French Open champion Nadal and two-time gold medallist Murray.

In other words, there are a lot of storylines to follow.

Wimbledon may have just ended, but another Slam(ish) is just two weeks away. Here are some names you need to know ahead of the tournament.

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Carlos Alcaraz: It goes without saying that the winner of the last two Slams heads into Paris as a No. 1 threat. Alcaraz, who defeated Jannik Sinner and Alexander Zverev in five sets to win his first French Open title, then dominated Djokovic to win his second consecutive Wimbledon title. Both victories required patience. He lost a total of 10 sets in both tournaments and played in seven tiebreakers (winning six), but has won four of his last seven Slams so far. And he turned 21 just two months ago. Wow.

Yannick Sinner: Sinner won 25 of his first 26 matches in 2024, and claimed his first Australian Open title and first place in June. But he is 0-2 against Alcaraz, making him the second-best contender in Paris.

There are few things in modern sports as exciting as a match between Alcaraz and Sinner, and if the draw goes well, the thought of a gold medal match between the two is exciting.

Alexander Zverev: Excluding his injury retirement, Zverev has won 21 of his last 24 matches at Roland Garros. He reached the final this year and was one set away from his first Slam title before Alcaraz won in five games. Of course, if the Olympics count as a Slam, he already has a title. He won gold in Tokyo three years ago, beating Djokovic among others.

Novak Djokovic: He is coming off his most frustrating season in years. For the second time in 14 years, he has failed to win one of the first three Slams of the year. He hasn’t beaten a top-10 player on clay since the 2023 French Open. He’s 37 and less than a month removed from a torn meniscus.

He is also the all-time Slam title leader in matches won. With ~ He made it to the Wimbledon final (by a very lucky draw) just weeks after having surgery for a torn meniscus at the French Open. He was only third in line for Paris at best… but at 37 and with one healthy knee, he might still be third!

Casper Rudd: Born with a torquey topspin, Ruud was born for clay. He has reached three consecutive semifinals and two finals at the French Open. Although his performances on other courts have been shaky, he is 21-5 on clay over the past year (6-2 against top-20 opponents). Norway is a close Winter Olympics country, but he is a strong contender for a medal.


long shot

Stefanos Tsitsipas: It has been a disappointing few years for Tsitsipas, but while his performances have slumped on other surfaces, he has reached the quarterfinals of the French Open in each of the last two years after reaching the semifinals in 2020 and the final in 2021. If he is going to make a big splash at a major tournament, it is likely to be on clay at the moment.

Daniil Medvedev: He has reached the finals of five of the last seven hard-court Slams, and while he has never been a semifinalist at Roland Garros, he has reached at least the round of 16 in 14 of the last 15 Slams. At worst, he is the world’s fourth-best player and the most reliable player in the sport to avoid an upset. That makes him a threat.

Jan-Lenard Stroop: Now let’s move on to the longer shot. The 34-year-old, 6-foot-4 Struff has never won more than 54 percent of his tour matches in a calendar year, but he’s 23-15 (60.5 percent) in 2024, 11-4 (73.3 percent) on clay, and has made three of four career Finals since May of last year. An Olympic appearance would be a major capstone to the big man’s late-season renaissance.


The coolest Olympic story

Moez Echargi: He’s 31, has never played a top-50 opponent, and his career-high ranking is 271. Aside from playing for Tunisia’s Davis Cup team, his biggest honor is winning Mountain West’s Co-Player of the Year in Nevada. But he won the 2023 African Games and qualified for the Olympics. He’s going to play at Roland Garros. How cool would that be? And how cool would it be to play Nadal or Djokovic in the first round?


The Miracle of the Olympics

Rafael Nadal: Veterans and comebacks make for some interesting Olympic subplots. On the women’s side, players like Caroline Wozniacki, 34, and Angelique Kerber, 36, the 2016 silver medalist, are making comebacks after motherhood. On the men’s side, there are more stories like this (without motherhood, of course). There’s Stan Wawrinka, 39, a former French Open champion (2015), and Federer’s 2008 men’s doubles gold medalist. Murray, a two-time gold medalist and 2016 French Open finalist, is playing his last tournament before retirement. And then there’s Nadal, of all people.

Perhaps no one has been more closely married to a major tournament than Nadal at Roland Garros. He went 112-4 there, and spent more than a year recovering from injury, seemingly with the sole purpose of qualifying for the French Open/Olympic combo in Paris. The French Open didn’t go as planned. As an unseeded entrant, he drew with Zverev in the first round and did well, but still lost in straight sets. However, he has tuned up on clay and skipped his potential last Wimbledon match in the name of one last shot at Paris. It will be amazing to watch. We’ll see if he can find his form, but with a protected ranking, he’ll never draw a tournament favorite in the first round again.


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Iga Swatec: The women’s tour is currently a strange combination of three tours in one. On hard courts, the heavyweights (Swiatek, Coco Gauff, Aryna Sabalenka, etc.) all swing big and do well (when healthy). On grass, it’s basically a random result generator. We’ve seen eight champions in the last eight Wimbledons and 13 semifinalists in the last four Wimbledons.

On clay, it’s Swiatek’s world. She’s won three straight French Open titles (four out of five), and has won four of her last six WTA 1000 clay-court events and reached her fifth final. She’s played 15 sets at the 2024 French Open, losing just one and winning 10 of her 14 by 6-2 or less. Her footwork and defense on clay are virtually perfect. No one is unbeatable, especially in a best-of-three format, but on this court, she’s the closest thing to it.


long shot

Coco Gauff: It’s weird to call a player who is ranked number two in the world and a former French Open finalist 100% unbeatable, but that’s what happens when Swiatek is in the picture. Gauff is still 15-0 against players at Roland Garros. ~ No Over the past three years, you’ve earned the name Swatech, and if you come in second or third in this competition, you’ll get a pretty nice medal, right?

Elena Rybakina: In her last 33 clay matches, Swiatek is 0-2 against Rybakina (withdrew at least 3 sets due to injury) and 31-0 against everyone else. Rybakina has been a bit shaky lately, losing her last 3 tournaments to lower-ranked players, but she has played tremendously and knows what it’s like to beat Swiatek on clay. So she’s a contender.

Babora Kreichkova: She won a slam on clay (2021 French Open), she has won the most. Recent She has won a Slam (Wimbledon, beating Jasmine Paolini in the final) and a gold medal (women’s doubles in 2020). If you’re looking for someone who can win a medal, that’s pretty much the perfect result.

Jasmine Paolini: It’s been a great year for the 28-year-old. She went 4-16 at Slams heading into the year, but she’s 15-3 in 2024. She’s confident, and her energetic performance (and her small stature) captivates the crowd. She’s a threat to any tournament she enters while maintaining this level of form.

Mira Andreeva She reached the French Open semifinals a month after her 17th birthday, and is 20-7 (5-4 against top-20 players) on clay over the past two years. She has not lived up to expectations during the grass season (0-2 in two events), but her game, blessed with excellent point composition and anticipation, blossoms on dirt.


The coolest Olympic story

Laura Pigosi: The 29-year-old Brazilian didn’t make it to the main draw of a Slam until she was 27, and her highest career ranking is 100. But she earned automatic qualification after a strong performance at the Pan American Games last fall. And seven of her eight career wins have come on clay. She could pull off an upset or two.


The Miracle of the Olympics

Daniel Collins: Okay, yes, it would be an exaggeration to call it a “miracle.” She’s ranked ninth in the world, after all. But since announcing she would retire at the end of the season, the 30-year-old has enjoyed the most consistent form of her career, reaching three finals and winning twice. She’s 16-4 on clay in 2024, with all four losses coming against non-Olympic players. It would be sweet to get a medal on the way out.

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