Donald Trump resumption Maximum pressure on Iran on February 4th 2025, and his last enthusiasm letter The Iranian government has raised concerns about rising tensions in the Middle East. But the United States is facing Iran. Past experience In the first Trump administration, Trump’s policy is expected. Iran’s anti -trump strategy is to form a ring of friendly relationships with neighboring countries in the Middle East. Second, prepare for strategic signals and cooperation with the West. Third, if the relationship between Russia and China intensifies, hedge if two strategies fail. “Neighbor’s first policyIran has destroyed the ability to hit Iran in the United States by forming a friendly relationship with neighboring Gulf countries. After all, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) backup Trump’s maximum pressure and it 1,500 sanctions For Iran in 2018.
Since 2024, Iran has been diplomatically attacked. Since the landmark 2023 of China’s diplomatic relations with Saudi Arabia, which China broker, the relationship between Saudi Arabia has become unprecedented. In October 2024, Saudi Arabia, Wai Ran, was surprisingly held. Joint military trainingSaudi Army Captain I visited Tehran In November 2024, we discussed quantum defense cooperation. The bilateral meeting with the UAE was held with Iranian ministers. UAE chairmanand trauma. In February 2025, for the first time in the Iranian Navy, four ships Docked in Sharjah Discuss maritime security for three days of visit. Iran did Jewish With Bahrain I sent a message To resume diplomatic relations, to Tehran through Russia. In October 2024, Iran’s Foreign Minister I visited Bahrain For the first time in 17 years.
Friendly relationships with neighboring Gulf provides two strategic purposes. First, while reducing the threat recognition of Iran, the Trump administration slowed Iran’s ability to secure the most urgent threat of existence. As a result, these Gulf countries may not be able to implement conflicting US policies less and less effective in Iran, such as diplomatic isolation. Iran’s diplomatic strategy is “Forward defense“A strategy to create a buffer using Iran support surrogate soldiers to promote conflict with the United States and Israel beyond Iran’s territory.
The Trump administration can force the Gulf countries to implement conflicting policies, but they can take advantage of the presence of US troops that benefit the security of the Gulf country. In contrast, the fear of new regional instability and war through the resurrected tension with Iran can potentially ignore the pressure of the Trump administration. In addition, friendly relationships with Tehran and open dialogue make Iran an immediate threat.
Second, the Gulf countries were able to mediate Tehran, mediated US policies, and even mediated the tension between the US-Iran. The desire to preserve all friendly relationships with Iran and regional stability provides a powerful incentive for the Gulf of the US-Iran. Iranian diplomatic service, Saudi Arabia and the UAE are US security partners, and there is no side of the leader. affinity With Trump. Recent Saudi Arabia Indicates openness It intervenes the tension between the US-Iran by formulating new nuclear transactions.
The mutual coordination of mutual understanding has abnormally acceptable to the Iranian diplomatic constitution. Both recognize the risk of unstable regional wars that the Gulf Nairan cannot handle. Especially Saudi Arabia is Economic changeAccording to the Vision 2030 plan, it will be moved away from oil with ambitious city development projects such as NEOM. There are international sanctions Breaking down Iran’s economyInflation is close to 40 %and is devalued. However, despite the matching interests, the close partnership with the close economic investments of the economic investments represents the red line in the Gulf relationship. The Gulf Lord did Hesitate In order to increase the economic relationship with Iran, it will violate US sanctions and cause US retaliation.
Iran also announced the openness of dialogue and cooperation with the West despite Tehran’s long -standing West. This strategy signals pragmatism, the west does not make excuses for Iran, and Tehran will be willing to find Western partners on behalf of Iran. Thus, the direct official negotiations with the United States may rarely be seen, but Tehran hopes to carve the United Western opposition parties by interacting with more open and neutral political parties.
Prior to Trump’s election and maximum pressure renewal, Iran’s political facilities informed the openness of Western dialogue. In an interview, Iran said in an interview with Iran’s top leader Ali Akbar Velayati.It is open to the closer Western ties“.”. President Masud Pezhkian said in the United Nations, “IranReady to participate“West of the nuclear program. Foreign Minister of Foreign Minister Abbas Arag Chi Proclamation Iran’s openness to “constructive negotiations” with Western countries.
This explains why Direct negotiation On January 13, Iran’s nuclear program with Germany, France and the United Kingdom was held.th 2025. Given access Check the uranium reinforced facility in Iran. Iran has been reported IAEA allowed In order to increase the inspection visit, present international concerns about high uranium reinforcement levels, and prove the transparency internationally.
Strengthening Iranian economy and security relations between Russia and China is the third trump prevention strategy and indicates hedge to the other strategies. Russia and China represent Iran’s major partners and are facing the US attempts to limit US sanctions and the impact of the United States. So this is “UpheavalI have been trying to create independent economic and military relations.
In recent years, Iran is increasingly dependent on the US’s economic and diplomatic isolation for both Russia and China. Both china and Russia Already signed a comprehensive strategic partnership with Iran, we have strengthened economic, security and political exchange.
In 2023 Russia was Iran’s The largest foreign investor, US $ 2.7 billion investment. In 2024, Wairan, Russia, founded Lee SHETAB-MIR system, Iran and Russian banking system integration, Iran bypasses international sanctions encouragement Trade of Iran Rial and Russian Ruble. China welcomed Iran: Complete member The Shanghai Cooperation Council, Iran was included in BRICS Chinese purchase Iranian Smuggling Emphasize the importance of Iran of the sanctioned technology.
In fact, the relationship between Russia and China is not safe for Iran, which provides financial life line and complete international isolation. Tehran acknowledged that diplomatic efforts in the Gulf and the West could be in jeopardy by international warnings on accelerated nuclear programs.
Whether this strategy will completely isolate Iran from Trump’s second maximum pressure remains. Tehran’s goal is to survive the second Trump administration by maintaining the influence of the region and maintaining international isolation. The collapse of Syria’s Assad regime weakened Iran’s resistance axis, and given the built -in situation of Lebanon’s Gaza and Hezbollah, this became more and more important to the stability of Iran. If you are successful, this strategy also shows a wide range of changes in Iran’s strategic aesthetics to more diplomacy. Optimistically, Iran’s international impacts will benefit greatly if they succeed in forming alliances with local rivals and restore dialogue with Europe while maintaining their relationship with Russia and China. Therefore, it reduces the need to support secret militias to preserve Iran’s international influence.
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