Considering the prevailing perception of Iran’s Islamic regime, immediate Given the threat to U.S. national security, Trump’s return to the presidency in January 2025 could have serious consequences for the ruling clerical regime. It can be argued that despite their reckless and destructive actions and military operations aimed at demonstrating military power and impressing their enemies, Islamic regimes tend to act rationally when they perceive a threat to their political survival. The regime’s political pragmatism, as evidenced by its tendency to make temporary political concessions, helps block and deflect America’s planned threats to its political existence.
Several compelling signs point to the destructive and debilitating pressures the incoming Trump administration will exert on the Islamic Republic of Iran. First, in preparation for transferring power to the next Republican administration, President Biden warned President-elect Trump said Iran was the most imminent threat to U.S. national security. Second, due to the Islamic regime-sponsored assassination attempt on Trump’s life. federal prosecutor It was decided to indict an Islamic regime agent who planned to avenge the killing of Qassem Soleimani, commander of the Quds Force (an elite unit of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps) on January 3.rd2020. Third, U.S. intelligence identified Iran’s Islamic regime as the main culprit in the obstruction of providing funding and other logistical support to Iran. anti-Israel protests On American university campuses. Fourth, according to a startling report from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) published on October 26, 2024, the Islamic regime has increased its uranium stockpile to near weapons-grade levels. This means that Iran is blatantly rejecting international demands to curb its military capabilities. nuclear program.
finally, During Trump’s first presidency, European powers were not only reluctant to support U.S. sanctions on Iran, but also cleverly attempted to devise a strategy known as the Instrument in Supporting Iran. trade exchange (INSTEX) evades and circumvents U.S. sanctions. However, due to military cooperation with the Islamic Republic of Iran, Russia In the attack on Ukraine, European powers not only reconsidered their ineffective policy of appeasement toward Iran, but also resorted to imposing restrictive measures against the Islamic regime. The Trump administration’s sweeping economic and political measures against the Islamic regime.
Iran will undoubtedly have a major impact on the foreign policy of the incoming Trump administration. Given that the ongoing bloody wars between Israel and its proxies in Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, and Iraq culminated in a confrontation between Israel and Iran, the threat situation from the Islamic regime heading into 2025 was first assumed by Trump. It will look very different from 2017. office. There are signs that portend an aggressive and destructive approach by the incoming Trump administration toward the Islamic Republic of Iran. President-elect Trump is in the process of forming one of the most pro-Israel cabinets in the United States. history. Some of the president-elect’s pro-Israel and hawkish candidates, including Senator Mark Rubio (Trump’s nominee for Secretary of State), Congressman Mick Waltz (Trump’s nominee for National Security Advisor), and Congresswoman Ellis Stefanik (nominee for U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations) , Mike Huckabee (designate for Ambassador to Israel), Steve Witkoff (Special Envoy between the U.S. and China East), and Fox News host and Army veteran Pete Hegseth (designate for Secretary of Defense). In the past, it clearly stated its hardline stance against Iran’s Islamic regime. Trump will set the overall tone of the new US administration’s foreign policy, but these Iran hawks could significantly influence and shape Trump’s stance on the Islamic regime.
Moreover, information leaked from the incoming Trump administration points to President-elect Trump’s firm determination to revive and strengthen the maximum pressure strategy. bankrupt The Islamic regime’s ability to fund regional proxies and develop nuclear weapons. Finally, it is claimed that members of the president-elect’s team have already begun considering devising a plan to topple the pillars of the Islamic regime. falling Iranian clerical leadership. Therefore, we argue that dismantling Iran’s current theocratic power structure would be a long-term solution to stabilize the region by effectively halting the Islamic regime’s nuclear program and cutting off funding for regime-sponsored militant groups and organizations.
Since Trump’s election victory, factions within the Islamist regime have expressed differing opinions on how they will manage the anticipated situation. volatile These are dangerous times for Iran. While some politicians push for negotiations, some hardliners urge caution and emphasize resilience. The regime appears to be faced with a situation in which no option is attractive. If Iran resists and challenges the incoming Trump administration’s expectations of dismantling its nuclear weapons program and ending support for regional proxies, it will face suffocating sanctions that could deprive the regime of its oil revenues. Given Trump’s declaration of support for Israel and recent criticism of Iran, by the UN nuclear agencyThis option could embolden and justify Israeli attacks on Iran’s critical military and revenue-generating infrastructure and facilities.
Despite its reckless and unstable behavior, the clerical leadership has proven to be rational whenever it perceives an imminent threat to the survival of the regime. Ayatollah Khomeini, who established the Islamic regime in 1979, was famous for his stubborn and uncompromising stance on continuing the war with Iraq in the 1980s. But he heard that military defeat on the battlefield could be very dangerous. survival As a member of the Islamic regime, he gave up accepting peace with Iraq, which he described as a poisonous pill.
The Islamic Republic of Iran has already signaled its readiness to engage in negotiations with the incoming Trump administration and make temporary concessions to avert threats to its political existence. After receiving a stern warning from the current US administration, the Islamic regime reportedly sent a written guarantee that it would not comply with Trump’s demands. assassination. In a bid to ease tensions with the incoming administration, Iran’s ambassador to the United Nations has reportedly held secret talks with Elon Musk, whom President-elect Trump appointed as one of the heads of the newly created Ministry of Government Effectiveness. On November 16, 2024, the Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Aragchi Iran has publicly stated its willingness to resume negotiations on its controversial nuclear program. Finally, Iran president Masoud Pezeshkian emphasized Iran’s readiness to improve relations with the West.
With Donald Trump’s return to the White House, the Islamic Republic of Iran is at a crossroads. Challenging the incoming U.S. administration’s demands to stop uranium enrichment and regional interference will inevitably involve weakening enforcement of oil sanctions that could deplete government coffers at a time when the Islamic regime’s regional networks are all but destroyed. It will unleash maximum economic, political and military pressure. Israel’s military offensive has weakened Iran’s deterrence capabilities and increased Iranian dissatisfaction with the regime. If the coming war with Israel turns into a full-blown political uprising, the clerical leadership will tend to rely on its own rationality and be reluctant to make temporary concessions to avert the imminent threat to its own survival. From Iran’s perspective, accepting the Trump administration’s demands may be a logical step to avoid falling off the looming cliff.
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