Falcons general manager Terry Fontenot attracted a lot of attention when he selected Michael Penix Jr. with the eighth pick in last spring’s draft. This seemed like an odd choice considering Atlanta had signed free agent Kirk Cousins to a four-year, $180 million contract just a few weeks earlier.
On Sunday, we’ll begin to find out if there’s method to the madness as the Falcons, still 7-7 and in contention for the NFC South title, replace the ineffectual Cousins with Penix for their home game against the Giants.
Cousins, 36, performed well after repairing his Achilles tendon but became slow and indecisive. He’s probably the main reason the Falcons have lost four of their last five games. That’s because he’s thrown one touchdown pass, nine interceptions and been sacked 11 times in that span.
No one knows whether Penix will be great or terrible. He’s more likely to be somewhere in between. I’d like to find out by scoring 8.5 points against the long-gone Giants.
Penix threw just five passes in the NFL, but threw 1,685 passes for 13,741 yards over six college seasons at Indiana and Washington. He knows what he’s doing and should be able to unlock Atlanta’s offensive weapons of Bijan Robinson, Drake London, Kyle Pitts and Tyler Allgeier better than Cousins.
Pick: Falcons -8.5.
Los Angeles Rams over NEW YORK JETS (-3.5)
My first inclination was to ride with Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams the week after his first breakout performance with the Jets. After all, it’s going to be a very Lambeau-like 24 degrees Sunday at MetLife, and the Rams have been practicing in temperatures in the 70s and 80s.
Other top Jets players have braved the cold in places like Ames, Iowa, Madison and Wisc. And when you visit Columbus, Ohio, you start to get the idea that they can thrive.
But on the other side of the argument, the Rams are in first place in the NFC West and are desperately trying to maintain that spot or a playoff spot. They have a QB coaching tandem in Matthew Stafford and Sean McVay who won a Super Bowl together. And they have a solid running attack combined with a short, precise passing game that doesn’t depend much on situations.
Saturday
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS vs. Houston Texans (-3.5)
I have to admit I was more interested in taking the Chiefs as a +3 home underdog when it looked like Carson Wentz would replace Patrick Mahomes. But with Mahomes’ ankle checkout, we’re back in a familiar position that we hope Kansas City will be able to cover well. The numbers are a little lighter than usual this time around, and I think that will be the case as defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo will be handling a pedestrian Houston offense that has had issues with the availability of Joe Mixon.
Baltimore Ravens over Steelers (-6)
That spread could look enormous in this AFC North matchup, and it’s tempting to side with Mike Tomlin as an underdog who still has 65.5% coverage after last week’s 27-13 loss at Philadelphia. But injuries are starting to wear off for the Steelers. Without George Pickens, the offense has disappeared, averaging just 215 yards per game over the past two weeks. TJ Watt has a bad ankle, but there is no injury designation for this game.
sunday
Detroit Lions over Chicago Bears (-6.5)
Don’t worry too much about the chilly, rainy weather in Chicago, the absence of David Montgomery or injuries to Detroit’s defense. The Lions are 12-2 in the NFC, tied with the Eagles and Vikings, and have enough firepower to distance themselves from a Bears team that has averaged 14.75 ppg during an eight-game skid.
Cincinnati Bengals over Cleveland Browns (-7.5)
Over their last six games, the Bengals have averaged 34 points. They’re just 3-3 in that span, but now they return home to face Dorian Thompson-Robinson in his third try as a starting quarterback for the Browns. Let’s hope Myles Garrett doesn’t get a clean shot against Joe Burrow.
Indianapolis Colts over Tennessee Titans (-3.5)
Tennessee, an NFL-worst 2-12 ATS, switches from Will Levis to Mason Rudolph. While that may be an upgrade, the Titans have injury concerns with Tony Pollard, Tyler Boyd and Nick Westbrook-Icaine. It feels like a reasonable number to back Colts favorite Shane Steichen at 8-4 ATS.
Washington Commanders (+3.5) over Philadelphia Eagles
The Commanders were up 10-3 in the third quarter in Philly on Nov. 14 before Saquon Barkley did something crazy and the Eagles won 26-18. Don’t mind supporting Jayden Daniels and Home’ Dog in the revenge category.
Arizona Cardinals (-4.5) over CAROLINA PANTHERS
Carolina has successfully covered five underdogs in a row, but was pulled as a favorite by Dallas last week, allowing 149 rushing yards to Rico Dowdle and three touchdown passes to Cooper Rush. The Cowboys are looking for James Conner and Kyler Murray to pick up where they left off.
Minnesota Vikings over Seattle Seahawks (-3)
Seattle had won four straight before being taken down at home by the Packers, 30-13, on Sunday night. Geno Smith, who left with a knee injury, will play but may be hindered. Running backs Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet have been injured, with Walker missing the last two games and Charbonnet suffering an oblique injury. It’s a tough spot against the Brian Flores defense and Justin Jefferson offense.
Buffalo Bills over New England Patriots (-14)
After covering the Ravens at -16.5 last week, I felt a little more emboldened to put up numbers this big. The predicted temperature in Orchard Park is 17 degrees and there is a chance of snow. Josh Allen and the Bills laugh at this situation. I think this is the last place a 3-11 opponent wants to spend three hours.
San Francisco 49ers (+1) over MIAMI DOLPHINS
Miami’s midweek injury list included Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle and Terron Armstead, with Waddle listed as questionable for the game. The Niners have similar concerns throughout the season, but expect to hear from Brock Purdy, Deebo Samuel & Co. again before it’s all over.
Jacksonville Jaguars (+1) over LAS VEGAS RAIDERS
The Jaguars are still contending, led by WR Brian Thomas Jr, and appear to be a somewhat capable team offensively. They need to jump on this opportunity for a rare win against the Raiders, who are already stocking up on food and drink in their draft war room. drink.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4) over DALLAS COWBOYS
Two things struck me about the Bucs’ win over the Chargers last week. First, Baker Mayfield really knows how to utilize Mike Evans and Bucky Irving. And second, they hit harder than any defense we’ve seen this season. I don’t believe the cowboys will take three hours of physical punishment.
Do you bet on the NFL?
monday
New Orleans Saints (+14.5) against Green Bay Packers
The Saints have covered the spread three of their last five and haven’t lost more than a touchdown since four straight double-digit losses from Weeks 5 to 8. I don’t see them as the bottom team in the Giants-Titans-Raiders class. Although the Packers need the game, there is no urgency to beat the Saints to this degree.
Your best choice: Jaguars, Falcons, Cardinals.
Lockdown of the Week: Jaguars (8-7 lock for 2024).
last week: 8-8 overall, best bet 1-2.
thursday: Broncos (L).
