Recently, our own Alex Kozora dived into Russell Wilson’s #1 flaw. The data matched his feelings when watching the movie. Wilson struggled more in the facing zone than in man coverage. The defense picked up on this, which was a big factor in the Steelers’ offense looking worse at the end of the season.
Today’s goal is to further develop our findings visually, as pictures speak a thousand words and we can compare how Steelers QBs stack up across the league in the 2024 regular season.
Let’s start with two very important data points: Adjusted Net Yards Per Pass Attempt (ANY/A) and Expected Point Added Per Dropback (EPA) area coverage.
Here we see that Wilson was below average in both key statistics that predict success against zone coverage. In the regular season, his 5.6 ANY/A was tied for 24th among 40 quarterbacks and his -0.05 EPA ranked 29th. Considering the end goal is to put points on the scoreboard and both statistics account for that, this is an unfortunate area that has crippled the passing game against smart, strong teams in a painful losing streak to end 2024.
Many are speculating that QB Justin Fields is more likely to resign from Pittsburgh. Even though he has started just six games at the start of 2024, it is interesting to compare his results to Wilson and the rest of the NFL. Fields has an eerily similar EPA, ranks one spot higher than Wilson when faced with zone coverage, and has a more notable lead in ANY/A and a higher-than-average score of 6.3 (19th) .
It’s not a huge advantage for Fields, but it’s interesting to learn. To put the season facing zone coverage into more context, one quarterback “destroys” the visuals with 10.6 ANY/A and 0.37 EPA – Raven Lamar Jackson. In my ANY/A article, I already highlighted that Baltimore leads the NFL in overall offensive ANY/A, and Jackson has actually been most successful when facing zone coverage.
This included an unfortunate wild card loss to Jackson and company, where the Steelers played a lot of territory en route to a loss to Pittsburgh. So not only has zone coverage been an issue for Wilson, but he’s faced it more often in the four-game losing streak and the Steelers’ defense has also had issues limiting opponents in those situations.
Let’s compare our results to male coverage using the same data points.
From the premise, you knew Wilson was a stronger QB when facing male coverage. The same was true for Fields, although the sample size was smaller, landing in the upper right and more desirable spectrum of this visual. Wilson certainly ranks 8th in the NFL with a 7.9 ANY/A and an EPA of 0.02 (13th).
When you remember that those numbers were much worse in the 5.6 and -0.05 pacing zones, it’s clear that’s where Wilson is more comfortable. He is a moon ball or short passer and gets his shot when the defense gives him man-to-man coverage. So it was expected that they would be stronger against humans, but even with this much spread in quality, they can’t succeed against the NFL’s best.
How realistic is it to expect change at this stage of Wilson’s career? I’m never saying never, but it’s probably not very likely. Fields has youth next to him, and he’s more likely to increase his ceiling. Pittsburgh also played a much more conservative offense in Game 6. If he becomes a starting pitcher in 2025, the potential for him to at least grow is encouraging.
This year, Fields scored better in EPA (0.08), placing an impressive 10th. However, ANY/A is a different story, slightly above average, with 6.0 ANY/A ranking 20th. For more context on Pittsburgh’s numbers, the top ANY/A QB against man coverage in 2024 was Philadelphia’s Jalen Hurts (9.8), who also gave Pittsburgh a loss in a painful losing streak and was Detroit’s Jared Goff’s It was second only to 0.4 EPA.
Comparing Jackson’s top zone coverage statistics, I wanted to provide his player numbers: 7.1 ANY/A (11th), -0.005 EPA (19th). So he’s still an above-average quarterback, but he’s clearly been an elite zone passer like no one else in 2024, including in Pittsburgh’s room.
In closing, another important stat that Kozora and I looked at for our research was Wilson and Fields’ league-wide standings. Bold numbers are for stronger ranked QBs.
There’s more context to show that Wilson has clearly had more success versus man coverage, including top-10 rankings in TD rate, ANY/A, QBR, and average throwing depth. Fields had impressive scores, top 10 in INT percentage and EPA, and ahead of Wilson in above-average goal completion percentage and completion percentage. Fields had a lower average projection depth and TD ratio in the unwanted spectrum compared to Wilson.
As a result of the zone, both QBs should have gotten better. However, it is very telling that Fields has an advantage over Wilson in 7/8 of the stats we looked at. Wilson ranked top 10 in hitting percentage and interception percentage, but was otherwise below average. Fields had a top-10 block rate, a strong result regardless of coverage. But elsewhere it’s more intermediate.
So whoever the Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback is in 2025, hopefully they can perform much better against zone coverage.
