Severe solar storms could supercharge auroras across the U.S., impacting power grid, NOAA warns

Get ready, Aurora chasers: There’s a good chance you’ll be seeing a spectacular light show by the end of this week!

Forecasters from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) are highlighting the potential for severe geomagnetic storms on Thursday (October 10) and Friday (October 11). The storm is likely in the G4 class. This is the second highest level in the world. SWPC’s geomagnetic storm scaleConsider both severity and potential impact.

In fact, this is the second time the SWPC has issued a G4 geomagnetic storm warning since 2005. The other was issued before the storm last May. It created an incredibly dramatic aurora display..

Who is the culprit? Another massive explosion sun.

On Tuesday night (October 8), sunspot AR 3848 produced a powerful X1.8 magnitude. sun flare. X flare most powerful type The flare caused a radio blackout throughout the sunlit regions of the Earth. The SWPC forecast team analyzed the flare using data collected by the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) spacecraft and determined that it was accompanied by the following phenomena: coronal mass ejection (CME) is a massive explosion of solar particles and magnetic fields. And that CME is heading toward Earth and is expected to produce powerful geomagnetic storms when it reaches us.

“If you think of two magnets, their polarities are the same, [you] If you try to unite them, they repel you. Opposite sides are connected and the magnets stay together. Shawn Dahl, service coordinator for SWPC, said at a press conference on Wednesday (October 9).

Dahl added, “If the CME’s magnetic field were the same as Earth’s, an initial shock would occur and the geomagnetic response would improve immediately, but it would probably not reach significant levels or potentially higher levels.” “If it connects favorably or changes to that configuration as it passes, we will escalate our response. This is where its true potential comes into play, we will issue warnings and follow-up alerts if that level of activity is reached. “You can do it.”

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According to SWPC forecasters, this CME is racing toward Earth at a speed between 2.7 million miles per hour and 2.9 million miles per hour (4.3 million kilometers per hour to 4.7 million kilometers per hour). This is the fastest speed we’ve seen in a while. the moon said It could hit our planet’s magnetic field starting Thursday morning.

“It’s the shock front that gets here to Earth first. It’s like a strong cold front moving across the United States, and it suddenly brings a lot of wind, but it can take a while for the extreme cold to show up.” Dahl said:

“Strengthens the impact by reaching the brunt of the impact and gaining an instantaneous jump in speed.[ing] The strongest parts of the magnetic field may not appear for a while, such as in extremely cold temperatures. Because it’s in the magnetic cloud part as it rotates and passes by. earth. For those of us who monitor it and see that we have arrived but things seem to be stabilizing, that is not the case. “We still have some magnetic clouds left to pass over the Earth, so keep that in mind.”

Powerful geomagnetic storms can disrupt radio communications and power grids and even damage orbit. satellite. but they also AuroraAlso known as the Northern Lights and the Southern Lights, they are more intense and visible at lower latitudes than usual.

But the Northern Lights are always fraught with uncertainty. Forecasters say observers in the central eastern states, southern Midwest and northern California could have a chance to see the Aurora as the approaching geomagnetic storm strengthens and progresses through the evening. To find out how things are going, monitor the SWPC website and use tools such as: 30 minute forecast Explore ground truth reports on social media.

“We have to be ready to roll and monitor. our web pagethat Real-time solar wind “Specifically,” Dahl said, “you can even recognize and subscribe to actual alerts so you know when activity is occurring. What you’re looking for is what we expect the enhanced magnetic field to be and its direction. If you stay north, there is no possibility of going further south. “But if it goes to the other side of the Earth, in the direction we call south, things will quickly turn around and the aurora will most likely appear.”

Forecasters also emphasize that no two storms are alike and that there is still much to be determined as this storm approaches Earth.

“Will this be a global phenomenon or will we see it all over the United States? may storm?” Dahl said. “It’s hard to say until we have a good read on it. “For that to happen again, we really need to get to G5 level, and we have the opportunity to do that.”

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