There have been a number of changes to the Pittsburgh Steelers’ personnel since last season. At the top of the list is the slot CB, which I spent a lot of time studying in the offseason. The Steelers who had the most slot reps last season were Chandon Sullivan and Patrick Peterson. Both are no longer with the team.
Fast forward to the 2024 offseason. CB Josiah Scott was released early in the spring after being a first-team player. Likewise, Grayland Arnold was a candidate but was recently released on an injury settlement. Plus, you have to wait until Cam Sutton’s eight-game suspension to be optimistic about his prospects.
But that’s much later. The lack of experience of others and the weak door that’s been spinning up from above are what worries me. Hopefully, there are a few candidates who will stick around and succeed. Rookie UDFA Vinnie Bishop Jr. was surprised at how much he played in the first-team slot in camp. Then he missed the second preseason game due to a minor injury. Hopefully, it won’t be long.
Then there’s Thomas Graham Jr., who has played the most preseason slot snaps, especially in the secondary with Bishop out. The latter is just getting his feet wet as a rookie, while Graham has little regular-season experience since being a sixth-round pick in the 2021 NFL Draft.
That includes 0 snaps in 2023, 37 total snaps last season, and 112 snaps in 2021. Compare that to Sullivan, the primary slot CB who logged 422 snaps last season, and the lack of experience that I’m concerned about is even more evident. It’s also concerning that most of Graham’s playing time is going back to 2021.
With that in mind, I still wanted to know about Graham’s 2021 season, as he could see an increased workload given his status on today’s roster. He has done particularly well in coverage this preseason, so let’s take a look at what he could offer the Chicago Bears in coverage in 2021.
Here are our 2021 coverage snapshots and targets (minimum 15) for quantitative context:
It’s 2021, so names like Joey Porter Jr. haven’t donned the Black and Gold yet. This visual reiterates the point I made in the beginning, namely that Graham’s most playing time thus far hasn’t been all that great. It includes just 54 coverage snaps, which ranks him 161st out of 167 qualified CBs (minimum 7 targets). That ranks him 164th in the number of times he’s been targeted.
Here are the 2021 snap rankings courtesy of Pro Football Focus (PFF).
Editor’s note: This article was written before CB Anthony Everett was released.
All four players, including Graham, have played primarily outside. In addition to the lack of snaps in terms of quantity, his slot snaps, which are the lowest on the totem pole, raise greater questions about his potential to fill that role in Pittsburgh. On the positive side, 33 of his 37 total snaps in Cleveland in 2022 have come from the slot.
Another important context is human-to-zone. Here are the ratios:
Graham played the least zone for Pittsburgh in 2021, and his man rate was similar to Sutton’s. For more recent context, the 2023 Steelers CB with significant snaps was hovering around 30% man coverage and in the mid-50s in zone.
So Graham’s similar experience, John will be an adjustment from his previous experience. Looking at 2022 again optimistically, Graham did 51.5% of the John, but the sample size was small and he did well on the surface.
Now let’s look at the quality of the 2021 game by completion percentage and catch rate. The catch rate is calculated by dividing the number of completions and drops by the number of catchable targets and passes defended.
Despite the lack of quantity, Graham had quality in this regard. His completion percentage of 28.6 ranked third among 167 qualifiers, and his catch rate of 33.3 was an encouraging best among his peers. Second place was a big difference at 46.2, something Graham can brag about. This came mostly from the outside corner, but I think it’s more optimistic to project him as a slot CB than vice versa.
Next, let’s look at yards per attempt and yards per game on target.
Graham, who is above average in both data points, allowed 12.0 yards per game, ranking him 15th, while his 6.9 yards per attempt ranked 60th. That’s especially good considering Graham’s primary opportunity was outside corner, where he typically allowed more yards (as we’ve seen in other Steelers cases right now).
Another statistic often used to evaluate defenders is QBR Against (completions, yards, touchdowns, interceptions factor). Let’s take a look at how they are evaluated along with points saved per play (PSPP – the total responsibility of a defender in coverage using the total points system). This system distributes credit to all players on the field for a given play, with a higher number being better.
Totals are adjusted for the average points scored or allowed at the team level, with the amount adjusted based on the player’s snap count. For pass defenders, this takes into account pass rushes, tackle breaks, interceptions, turnovers, and turnover returns.):
Here’s less comforting news. Graham was right on average in PSPP, ranking 84th, and had a below-average 95.2 QBR for a player ranked 105th. Graham caught six passes on seven targets, allowed just two completions, and had three passes defended. But those catches were for 48 yards and a touchdown, and there were no interceptions, so it wasn’t all sunshine and rainbows.
Finally, let’s look at the SIS boom and bust ratio, which is the percentage of big plays allowed or made in coverage.
- Boom % = Percentage of dropbacks that resulted in EPA 1 or higher (highly successful plays on offense)
- Bust % = Percentage of dropbacks that resulted in an EPA of -1 or less (a very poor play for the offense)
Back to the bright side here, he’s comfortably above average in both data points. Graham’s 14.3 boom rate ranks 14th, while his 28.6 bust rate ranks an even better ninth. That metric uses EPA, which highlights the impact each play has on the expected outcome. It’s fantastic to see him rank this high among his peers who have played the most minutes so far this season.
I was more encouraged going into the study than I expected, given that Graham’s quality is superior to his quantity. Of course, the latter is the concern, and if he does get any notable playing time, will the impact be similarly sustained?
Here’s a ranking table summarizing the data and conclusions:
As we sit here today, it seems like Bishop is the one who is being sacked while Graham is doing the coverage job. I know not everyone likes PFF grades, but it is a rare stats site that tracks preseason games.
Here are the results so far, which gives me some optimism that it could work out this way.
Graham’s 77.6 defensive grade ranked 33rd among all CBs through two preseason games. While his run defense was buggy, Bishop’s was 63.1. Tackling was good for both players, with Bishop ranking 34th and Graham 39th. The pass rush also skewed toward Graham, ranking fifth among all CBs, and his coverage rating was 19th.
The preseason is definitely a different animal, but I’m seeing good things from Graham. It’s a positive sign considering his career hasn’t seen much play in the regular season. Hopefully Bishop will be healthy enough to play in Saturday’s finale. He’ll need as many snaps as possible.
