Five races ago, Carlos Sainz admitted that it took him too long to decide on his future and that he did not want to wait any longer to decide on his next job. He said it was taking up too much time and energy.
It was surprising that the Spanish Grand Prix in June took so long, given Williams’ growing confidence that they could lure the Ferrari race winner into their rebuilding project after months of courting him.
The momentum around Monaco really started to build, with James Bowles trying to make the public aware of the interest. At that stage, there was little serious talk linking Sainz to such a move. The Spaniard’s management also said shortly afterwards that it was a project they were interested in, but that nothing was being ruled out.
There were offers from Williams, Alpine and Stake (which became Audi), all with various pros and cons to consider. But understandably, one of the reasons Sainz was reluctant to commit early this season was the ongoing vacancy at Mercedes for 2025 (a vacancy that has yet to be resolved) and the uncertainty about the Red Bull line-up.
Not only is Sergio Perez out of contract at the end of the year, but Max Verstappen’s future has been the subject of much debate due to the circumstances surrounding Christian Horner and Jos Verstappen. A move seemed unlikely, but it was enough of a stalemate to put things on ice for a while.
It took another five weeks to sort things out, but Sainz finally put his next move down on paper, and it was against Grove.
There are many factors at play, but Vowles’ leadership and the commitment of the Williams board were crucial. There are no guarantees, as there is a long way to go to win a race and so much work ahead, but Williams is the team with the clearest direction and the most stability right now.
Alpine have just announced major changes to their team setup, with a new team principal set to take office after the summer break, while Audi are set to make virtually the same changes, with Mattia Binotto joining the team a week ago.
Williams is actively recruiting talent, has a young but impressive boss in Bowles who is focused on future success and has a clear plan to achieve it. Also, they have the all-important Mercedes power unit, which is regularly cited as the most powerful engine from 2026 onwards.
Now 29, Sainz’s experience will be crucial to help Williams develop further. He has seen the works teams of Renault and Ferrari and the early stages of the McLaren rebuild. But he won’t be asked to perform miracles and can realistically hope to compete for the occasional podium in his second year at the team.
But even as I began writing this article, Sainz was still keeping a close eye on what was happening at Red Bull. The decision to give Perez a two-year contract two months ago seemed to have closed that door, but his form since then has led to a huge amount of scrutiny surrounding the position.
Perez has been an enigma at times, often responding to adversity in impressive ways and emerging from the crisis whenever questions have been raised about his future. That’s not something that comes easily with Verstappen, as Alex Albon and Pierre Gasly can attest.
Perez has done enough to make the second Red Bull seat his own for now. Zak Mauger/Motorsport Images
This season too, he did exactly what he needed to do at the beginning, but after Miami, he completely fell off. For example, Suzuka is considered the Verstappen circuit, where his ability shines in terms of lap times. However, on one lap, Perez was 0.066 seconds ahead of his teammate for pole position, and he took another very solid second place.
But his results since the start of the European season have been embarrassing: eighth in Imola, two withdrawals after crashes in Monaco and Canada, eighth in Spain, seventh in Austria (after finishing eighth in the sprint), 17th in Britain (after a bad crash in qualifying), seventh in Hungary and seventh again in Belgium (after George Russell’s disqualification).
He scored a total of 28 points over 8 rounds, averaging just 3.5 points per round.
The mystery continued in the last two races. Perez crashed badly again in qualifying in Hungary but recovered well for the race. However, despite starting first in a clean and dry race in Belgium, he finished eighth on the road.
Following Austria, a senior Red Bull source confirmed that a decision on Perez’s future will have to be made during the summer break if his form does not improve. There were signs in Hungary on Saturday night that a decision was close, but it was only today, after Helmut Marko joined Horner and the rest of the British team, that anything was confirmed.
And finally decided to side with Mexico.
The lack of certainty about the replacements may have been a major factor. Daniel Ricardo has been solid but unspectacular for most of the season, Liam Rawlsson is very inexperienced and for some reason Yuki Tsunoda was not seriously considered. But Perez’s ability to cope with adversity is also likely to have played a part.
He has previously won in Baku and Singapore, two of the next four races, and was second at Monza last year. Can Red Bull guarantee that any of the drivers they have in their car mid-season will perform better on that track?
Verstappen is clearly a priority and Red Bull’s biggest asset. Keeping or replacing Perez would have been a gamble either way. But the inaction, unusual for Red Bull, suggests they are willing to risk losing the championship as long as they win the drivers’ title.
The gap to McLaren in the Constructors’ Championship is fast closing to 42 points, but Verstappen’s lead over Lando Norris continues to grow and now stands at 78 points. With ten rounds remaining, three full race wins, including the fastest lap point, look like a comfortable margin.
Red Bull have been trying to regain stability after internal strife at the top of the table early in the season and have taken a less radical route, maintaining stability and leaving the only change to be made to the car itself for the upcoming races.
Perez has been keen to get out of the speculation for a few weeks now, and Red Bull have certainly allowed him to make a quick decision over the summer break. But if he wants to avoid the same old scrutiny coming back at the end of August, he will need to repay the massive show of faith just as quickly after the summer break.
